The Philadelphia Phillies (26-27) and San Diego Padres (31-21) open a 3-game series in San Diego, California, on Monday. First pitch from Petco Park is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025 season series: Tied 3-3
The Phillies went 2-4 on their most recent homestand, losing 4 of their final 5 games. They lost the finale of their last series Sunday 3-1 to the Cleveland Guardians. They managed only 6 hits against Guardians SP Patrick Messick and 4 relievers. Rookie SP Andrew Painter (6 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K) lost his fifth consecutive decision.
The Padres are 3-3 on their current homestand and took 2 of 3 from the A’s, but lost the Sunday finale 5-2. SP Michael King (3 2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 BB). The offense had 9 hits, getting runs from 1B Ty France‘s home run, his fifth of the year, and a sacrifice fly by 3B Manny Machado.
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Phillies at Padres projected starters
LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. RHP Randy Vasquez
Luzardo (3-4, 4.85 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 55 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-1 home setback to Cincinnati Reds Tuesday
- Career vs. Padres: 1-4, 4.50 ERA (28 IP, 14 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 5 starts
- 2026 road splits: 2-0, 1.52 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 4 starts
Vasquez (5-2, 2.96 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 54 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 0 K in 4-0 home loss to LA Dodgers on Wednesday
- Career vs. Phillies: 0-1, 12.46 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 3.23 WHIP, 4.2 K/9 in 1 start
- 2026 home splits: 3-1, 4.20 ERA (30 IP, 14 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 6 starts
Phillies at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:04 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Padres +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Phillies 3
The Padres have won 6 of their last 9 games and are 16-13 at home this season. Before losing 4 of 5, the Phillies won 8 of 9. They are 12-11 on the road, and they are 12-19 against teams with winning records.
The Phillies have scored 9 total runs in the last 5 games. The Padres have held opponents to 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 9.
BET PADRES (+105).
The Padres are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs. Five of those 6 covers were outright wins.
The Phillies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games with 4 outright losses.
With plus odds for the Padres to win outright, that is the better play.
PASS.
Six of the Phillies’ last 8 games have not reached 8 total runs while 4 of the Padres’ last 6 games have not reached 8 total runs.
Vasquez’ last 4 starts have had totals of 6 or fewer.
BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).
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