For the first “Star Wars” film in theaters in seven years, you would hope that “The Mandalorian and Grogu” would make a little more noise than “Solo: A Star Wars Story.”
With an estimated $81 million opening weekend and $100 million domestic over the 4-day Memorial Day holiday, “The Mandalorian and Grogu” was not the lowest opening for a “Star Wars” movie ever, as some had feared (not factoring in inflation), and it’s roughly on par with the $84 million opening of “Solo” from 2018, the largely forgettable Han Solo prequel film. Back when “Solo” opened, we might have said that’s awful, but times have changed, and while it’s not bad, it’s not staggering either, despite being the fourth-largest domestic opening for a film in 2026.
Some of the early tracking for “Mando” over four days, not three, was for an $80 million opening, and that would have spelled trouble. Instead, Disney is relieved to see an A- CinemaScore (“Solo” got the same grade, for whatever that’s worth), 89 percent Popcorn Meter on Rotten Tomatoes, and even 52 percent of audiences seeing it in IMAX or other PLF screens, including a good chunk in 3D. IMAX gave “The Mandalorian and Grogu” a three-week commitment, so it’s going to hang onto those premium screens and surcharges for a while.
There’s a plethora of other qualifiers and caveats you can make that could paint a solid picture for “Mandalorian and Grogu.” It’s a spinoff of a streaming show, not a main part of a new “Star Wars” saga or the launch of a new franchise, and it’s a standalone film that doesn’t require backstory, so this will surely steer some people back to the show on Disney+, if they haven’t watched it already. It’s also cost way less than “Solo” did, budgeted roughly $166 million compared to $270 million, so that’s certainly a plus. The $63 million it made internationally puts it well on its way to recouping that cost.
But the numbers also paint a picture of the audience that Disney is really glad showed up for this film: families. Just 11 percent of the audience on opening night on Thursday was under-18 or included that family crowd, but that jumped to 25 percent over the weekend. The under-18 audience rated the film an “A,” and where Disney will truly make bank on this movie is in people buying Baby Yoda dolls and toys and in parents bringing kids to Galaxy’s Edge in Disneyland or Disney World. The Smuggler’s Run ride in Anaheim recently got retooled to cross-promote the movie.
This summer isn’t getting less crowded at the theaters. Fanboys might turn their attention to “Masters of the Universe” in the coming days, Gen-Z might gravitate toward “Scary Movie” or “Obsession” that is still going strong, sci-fi fans will look to “Disclosure Day,” and families even have Nate Bargatze’s “The Breadwinner” as an option. But none of those are necessarily real competition for four-quadrant audiences until Disney’s own “Toy Story 5” in mid-June.
The reviews suggest that the inoffensive, adorable touches “The Mandalorian and Grogu” achieves (it has an extended sequence sans-Mando and featuring only Grogu and some other cutesy, miniature creatures) were exactly by design. With former Lucasfilm head Kathleen Kennedy now out of the picture in favor of Dave Filoni and co-president Lynwen Brennan, you can maybe hold out a New Hope that “Starfighter” starring Ryan Gosling might be more in line with what a more ravenous fan base wants to see from their favorite franchise. You might argue that Disney was right to court families again than the folks that have made some “Star Wars” discourse absolutely toxic.
But whatever defined success for “Star Wars” films in the past, when it comes to “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” now this is the way.
