It’s May 28 and it’s getting late early in Detroit. Preseason favorites to win the American League Central, the Tigers begin Thursday in last place and facing an uphill climb for even a wild-card berth.
There’s still some time left for the Tigers to turn around their season — I’d give this roster another month to get back in the race — but given where they are in the standings, the Tigers front office should start to plan for a scenario in which they are sellers at the Aug. 3 trade deadline rather than buyers. And if they are selling, Detroit will have the biggest trade chip on the market to deal in two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. It’s time for them to start testing the waters on a potential Skubal deal so that if and when they do decide to be sellers, they can move on a deal decisively.
The stark reality is that the Tigers won’t be able to extend Skubal before he hits free agency in the offseason. They can’t let him walk in exchange only for draft pick compensation like the Los Angeles Angels did with Shohei Ohtani in 2023, a decision that has set them back years. Detroit should start thinking about 2027 and beyond right now.
The reason the Tigers shouldn’t wait to shop Skubal is because the earlier they trade him, the bigger the prospect return will be. If they trade him in, say, a month, the team acquiring him will get him for July, August, September and the postseason. If instead they wait to trade Skubal until the deadline, the team acquiring him will only have him for two months of the regular season plus October — the trade value goes way down.
As the Tigers contemplate a potential Skubal deal, they should consider a willingness to eat some of Skubal’s contract to get back a better return. Even though he’s in his walk year, Skubal is still valuable enough that trading him could be a game-changing deal that could really shape their long-term future.
Of course, Skubal will first have to prove himself healthy and start pitching like he did the last two seasons to get the return the Tigers need.
In the meantime, since there will be so many contending teams that will have interest in Skubal, it’s important for the Tigers to start getting a sense of the market now. Find out early what prospects will be “off the table”, whether teams will take on the remaining salary on Skubal’s contract, gauge interest in any other veteran Tigers players and exchange medicals, so the clubs are comfortable that the loose body that was removed from Skubal’s elbow was truly the only medical issue.
With all that in mind, let’s look at the other 29 MLB teams and see where the possible fits for Skubal and the Tigers could be:
NL East
Atlanta Braves — Atlanta already has a solid top of the rotation with Chris Sale, Bryce Elder and Spencer Strider. Team president Alex Anthopoulos would take the call and see what a potential deal would look like, but it’s a long shot that he’d put all his chips in to land Skubal.
Philadelphia Phillies — Like Atlanta, the Phillies have a strong trio at the top of their rotation with Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo. They also don’t have a particularly deep farm system, which makes them an unlikely landing spot for Skubal.
Washington Nationals — The Nationals are off to a great start and have the best offense in baseball, but their pitching is more than a Tarik Skubal away from being a legitimate contender. They do have the farm system to get a deal done, but they are still building long-term and won’t be players here.
Miami Marlins — The Marlins will be shopping Sandy Alcantara rather than talking about a Skubal trade.
New York Mets — The Mets are not getting back in the race and are certainly not going to trade prospects for Skubal. Instead they will wait until he reaches free agency when they can once again play checkbook baseball and add without giving up players.
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers — The Brewers have the farm system to get Skubal, but that’s not how they do business and they won’t be players here. They play for the long term and are going to hold on to all of their very top prospects.
Injuries have hit Matthew Boyd and the Cubs hard, but they are still a viable playoff team, especially if they can add a top starter in Skubal. (Griffin Quinn / Getty Images)
Chicago Cubs — The Cubs will be eager to match up with the Tigers on a blockbuster if Skubal is available. Chicago has dealt with significant injuries to its starting rotation but still has a postseason-caliber squad and the team’s biggest weakness is not having an ace at the top of the rotation. The Cubs have the farm system and the wherewithal to get it done and are a team to watch.
St. Louis Cardinals — A Skubal trade would be a game changer for the surprising Cardinals, but team president Chaim Bloom is not trading his top prospects for a rental — at least not this year. They are still building and he’s looking for more years of control for future starting pitching acquisitions.
Pittsburgh Pirates — The Pirates have a strong rotation led by Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and will soon get Jared Jones back off the injured list. They are not going Skubal shopping.
Cincinnati Reds — The Reds are not going to trade from their prospect cabinet to acquire Skubal. They are hoping their ace, Hunter Greene, will be coming off the injured list sometime this summer and his healthy return would be their big in-season move.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers — Of course, they’re going to be in on Skubal. Just imagine an October rotation of Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. Yikes! They certainly have enough to trade as well, as they could offer either Justin Wrobleski or Emmet Sheehan off their major-league roster and one of their top outfield prospects, such as Zyhir Hope, Josue De Paula or Eduardo Quintero.
San Diego Padres — We all know team president A.J. Preller is always going to be in the middle of a major trade and he’s always willing to trade the best prospects in his cabinet, including his top three pitching prospects, Kruz Schoolcraft, Miguel Mendez and Kash Mayfield.
Arizona Diamondbacks — I won’t count the Diamondbacks out of a deal like this because of their track record of surprising us with the previous acquisition of aces such as Zack Greinke and Corbin Burnes. If Arizona stays in contention and can see a pathway to the postseason, I think it could be a dark-horse team.
San Francisco Giants — The Giants will be shopping southpaw Robbie Ray and not engaging with the Tigers.
Colorado Rockies — Stop it. Please.
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays — The Rays will be “in” on Skubal and they’ll do it in stealth fashion as they normally do. They have the farm system to make a deal work here and if they can put Skubal with Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan at the top of the rotation, they’ll be well equipped to do damage in October. They’ll be a threat in the Skubal sweepstakes.
New York Yankees — Of course, general manager Brian Cashman will be monitoring the Skubal trade talks like he always does. However, if Max Fried’s elbow injury really is just a contusion and he comes back healthy, then with a rotation of Fried, the emerging Cam Schlittler, the return of both Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón and the further development of Will Warren and Ryan Weathers, there really isn’t a need to trade their top prospects to land Skubal. They’re not going to offer Carlos Lagrange or George Lombard Jr. for a rental.
The emergence of Cam Schlittler as an ace means adding to the rotation is far from a pressing need for the Yankees but can you imagine Skubal joining Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and company?
That being said, I can see them making a low-ball offer of Spencer Jones and Ben Hess and at least stay involved in the talks. If the prospect price becomes realistic, they’ll be players. Imagine Skubal, Fried, Cole and Schlittler as your October rotation.
Toronto Blue Jays — The Jays will be involved, but I just don’t see them offering a prospect package that would satisfy the Tigers, so I think it’s unlikely he ends up here.
Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox are searching for a right-handed middle of the order impact bat. They’re happy with their starting rotation and I’m not sure they’re good enough to trade for a rental at this point.
Baltimore Orioles — If the Orioles can get back in the race, then I can see them making a push for Skubal by offering some of their young but underperforming major-league position players. However, I don’t think the O’s are good enough to be players for Skubal.
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians — The Guardians have a strong four-man rotation led by lefties Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo and righties Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. Their biggest need is another middle of the order bopper and they’re not going to be engaging with the Tigers on Skubal.
Chicago White Sox — As well as they’ve played so far, the White Sox are not ready to trade for a rental.
Kansas City Royals — The Royals need to improve their offense, probably aren’t good enough to trade for a rental and don’t have the farm system to make a run at him anyway.
Minnesota Twins — They should be shopping Joe Ryan and be ready to pounce on whatever teams miss out on Skubal.
AL West
Athletics — I would love to see the A’s make a play for Skubal but they’ve done such a great job building for their eventual move to Las Vegas that I’d hate to see them trade one of their top prospects, such as Leo De Vries or Jamie Arnold, to make a run this year. I think they’ll stay on the sidelines this time around.
Seattle Mariners — The Mariners have a deep rotation with Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo with Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan on the way. They’re not going to be players on a Skubal rental.
Texas Rangers — The Rangers will be focusing on improving their lineup, not their rotation, at the trade deadline.
Houston Astros — The Astros sure could use Skubal, but even if they get back in the race, I can’t see them trading their young players for a rental when they have such an aging roster. It’s also more likely they become sellers than buyers.
Los Angeles Angels — No comment.
Ranking the best fits
We’ve now gone through all of the teams, so let’s rank the seven that are most likely to trade for Skubal between now and the trade deadline:
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Chicago Cubs
- New York Yankees
- San Diego Padres
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Toronto Blue Jays
