Topline
Texas state Rep. James Talarico’s odds of winning the Texas Senate race began falling sharply this week, a notable turnaround from the middle of May, when the Democratic nominee was briefly favored to win the seat after Texas Attorney General and Republican nominee Ken Paxton received an endorsement from President Donald Trump.
Democratic Senate Candidate James Talarico waves to people during a meet-and-greet after a rally at Rich’s Houston on May 27, 2026 in Houston, Texas.
Photo by Danielle Villasana/Getty Images
Key Facts
Talarico’s odds of winning the Texas Senate race dropped below 40% at times Thursday, Kalshi showed, while Paxton’s jumped to 60%.
The drop marks a quick slide for Talarico, who briefly topped 50% on May 19, when Trump endorsed Paxton, who later won the Republican primary runoff over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
Talarico’s odds were around 46% earlier this week, Kalshi showed, while his slip is even more start on competitor Polymarket, which showed Talarico’s odds at 47% as recently as Wednesday afternoon.
Despite the fall, Talarico’s odds on Kalshi are about five percentage points higher than immediately after he won the Democratic primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, with 53.1% of the vote.
Nearly $4 million worth of predictions have been made on Kalshi for the Texas Senate race as of Thursday evening.
What Do Polls Say About Talarico And Paxton?
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll published in April, before Paxton won the runoff, gave Talarico an eight point lead (42% to 34%) over Paxton in a hypothetical matchup. A Texas Southern University/YouGov poll conducted between April 22 and May 6 found Talarico and Paxton both had support among likely voters.
Key Background
Talarico’s faltering odds come amid an intense exchange of mudslinging from Democratic supporters and Republican critics. Deputy White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said in an X post Tuesday night the “Democrats made history in Texas by nominating their first transgender senate candidate,” a jab that could be ultimately rooted in comments Talarico has made defending transgender rights, though other right-wing commenters have made personal attacks on Talarico’s appearance. In response to Miller, the official X account of the Democratic Party said, “shut up you ugly f—,” garnering well over 10 million impressions on the social media platform. The official Republican Party account said in a separate post, “Anyone worried about losing to this freak hasn’t been to Texas,” piling on to insults Paxton and Trump have made about Talarico, alleging he is a vegan (which Talarico has denied) and blasting him for saying during a floor debate God was nonbinary. Talarico walked back some of his comments in an interview with CBS News, saying Paxton was “intentionally clipping my cringey comments to distract from his career of corruption” and his comments regarding a gender of God were “intentionally provocative.” Following allegations of corruption, bribery and abuse of his official powers, Paxton was impeached in 2023 and suspended from office before the Texas Senate acquitted him of all charges.
Further Reading
Democrats’ Official X Account Posts Profanity-Laced Attack On Stephen Miller In Tawdry Exchange (Forbes)
Trump Backs Paxton Over Cornyn In Fiery Texas Senate Runoff—Targeting Another GOP Incumbent (Forbes)
