France head into the group stages as one of the favourites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Can they successfully navigate past a tricky trio of opponents in the form of Norway, Senegal and Iraq to escape Group I?
France have arguably been the dominant team in the modern era of the FIFA World Cup, winning the competition twice (1998 and 2018) while also reaching two other finals (2006 and 2022).
It is therefore little surprise that the Opta supercomputer gives them the second-best chance of winning the 2026 World Cup, at 13.0%, behind Spain (16.0%). But why are Les Bleus not favourites?
First, they must navigate one of the toughest groups at this summer’s tournament. Group I also features Norway, Senegal and Iraq, leaving little margin for error.
We use the Opta supercomputer’s World Cup predictions to see how the group could unfold.
World Cup Group I Predictions
- Despite being rated as the second-most likely team to win the World Cup (13.0%), five teams have a better chance of reaching the knockout stages than France (95.3%).
- Norway are the next-most likely team to progress from Group I, doing so in 82.3% of pre-tournament simulations, followed by Senegal (62.0%).
- Iraq only managed to successfully navigate through Group I in 27.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-tournament simulations.
The difficulty of Group I is reflected in the Opta supercomputer’s projections. Despite being second favourites to win the World Cup this year (13.0%), France rank only sixth among the 48 teams for probability of reaching the round of 32, doing so in 95.3% of simulations.
So, while it would still be a huge surprise to see them eliminated from the tournament before the knockout stage, the supercomputer is clearly giving considerable respect to France’s group stage opponents.
France have been finalists at each of the last two World Cups (2018 and 2022), winning the tournament in Russia in 2018 before losing on penalties against Argentina at the last edition. They have in fact reached the final in four of the last seven editions, at least as many times as any other nation during that span.
What they have in their favour is continuity. This will be Didier Deschamps’ fourth World Cup as France head coach; only Carlos Alberto Parreira (6) and Bora Milutinović (5) have managed at more editions, regardless of nation.
Meanwhile, in Kylian Mbappé, France have a player who many consider to be the best in world football. He has often proven as much on the biggest stage, scoring more goals (12) and recording more goal involvements (14) than any other player across the last two World Cups, including a hat-trick in the 2022 final.
And the Real Madrid forward is eyeing history. Mbappé needs one more goal to equal Just Fontaine (13) as France’s all-time leading scorer at the tournament, while four more would see him match Miroslav Klose’s current World Cup record of 16. Lionel Messi, with 13, is the only active player currently ahead of him.
Mbappé isn’t the only superstar scorer in Group I. Norway boast the talents of Erling Haaland, who scored 16 goals in eight matches in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, double the tally of any other European player.
Haaland was far from Norway’s only attacking threat, though. As a team they averaged 4.6 goals per game during qualification, the highest figure ever recorded by a European nation in a single World Cup qualifying campaign with more than four games played.
That dominant qualifying run secured Norway a place at the World Cup finals for the first time since 1998, when they reached the round of 16.
The supercomputer gives them an 82.3% chance of reaching the knockout stages this year, and a 25.2% chance of topping the group.
Norway were also participants at the 1994 edition, the only previous tournament hosted by the United States. All four teams in their group finished level on four points with an identical goal difference, still the only occurrence of its kind in World Cup history. Norway ultimately finished bottom after scoring the fewest goals, though with Haaland leading the line, that’s unlikely to be an issue this time around.
Senegal are another danger for France, reaching the knockout rounds in 62.0% of simulations. This is just their fourth World Cup appearance, but their third in a row. Their best performance to date came in 2002 when they reached the quarter-final.
Current head coach Pape Thiaw played a role in that run, providing the assist for Henri Camara’s golden goal against Sweden to secure Senegal’s place in the final eight.
Senegal’s top scorer, Sadio Mané, was forced to miss the 2022 World Cup through injury, but he will be available for this summer’s tournament on the back of winning the Saudi Pro League with Al Nassr.
Iraq complete Group I with a 27.1% chance of progression; only Haiti (15.4%) and Curaçao (18.7%) have a lesser chance of doing so among all 48 teams.
They lost all three of their matches at their only previous participation, in 1986. Only Canada and El Salvador have played more games at the World Cup with a 100% losing rate than Iraq (6/6 each).
*All prediction data is accurate as of 4 June 2026.
Enjoy this? Add Opta Analyst as a preferred source by clicking here.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
