Photo:
Juliana Colombo / Eclipse Sportswire
Saratoga’s two-day Pick 6 includes five Grade 1 races and offers a low 20-cent minimum. The action begins with two races Friday and continues with four races Saturday, ending with the Belmont Stakes. Below I take an in-depth look at all six races in the sequence, analyzing reliable singles and vulnerable favorites.
Leg A, Acorn Stakes (G1), Friday
I will begin this sequence by taking stand against the 4-5 morning-line favorite, Always a Runner. I feel the gap in talent between Always a Runner, Meaning and Prom Queen is small, but the gap in price is large. I had concerns about the experience and level of competition Always a Runner had faced coming into the Kentucky Oaks (G1), and she proved me wrong that day at 5-1. I am willing to make her prove it again now that she is odds-on. Meaning ran a very good race in the Kentucky Oaks and was simply second best. She had more proven form than Always a Runner entering the Oaks and was closer to the hot early pace that Always a Runner benefited from in that race. She will have every opportunity to get revenge in this spot. Prom Queen was another runner I liked going into the Kentucky Oaks. She was visually impressive in a pair of wins leading up to the Oaks, and I did not like her ride when closing fast from almost last to run fifth. Brad Cox apparently did not care for the ride either, as he replaces Javier Castellano with Flavien Prat. This filly’s tactical speed is one of her best assets, and she should be much more involved in this race early on.
Using no. 1 Prom Queen, no. 3 Meaning
Leg B, Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1), Friday
The ultra-consistent Alpine Princess has finished in the top three in 14 of 15 lifetime starts on the dirt. She appears to be as good as ever as she comes off a sharp Grade 2 win at Keeneland. Irad Ortiz Jr. and Brad Cox team up with the filly who might find herself on a soft early lead. Nitrogen is the class of the field and a deserving favorite. She has knocked heads with the best of the division in the last two years and never runs a bad race. She is a must-use but is not a cinch after losing her last two races at less than even money. Fully Subscribed closed out her 3-year-old campaign in strong fashion with a pair of dominant stakes wins and returned with a solid second in her first start as a 4-year-old off a six-month layoff. Cassiar is worth inclusion as a price play. She won at first asking for Shug McGaughey, which is a sign of talent as Shug is not known for cranking his runners up on debut. She has not fully put things together since then, but she is coming off of her best race when finishing closing steadily to be second in the Ruffian Stakes (G2). She could pull off the upset at 15-1 if she takes another step forward with the addition of blinkers.
Using no. 1 Fully Subscribed, no. 3 Alpine Princess, no. 4 Cassiar, no. 5 Nitrogen
Leg C, True North Stakes (G3), Saturday
Bentornato came up a bit short when running second in Dubai, but it is hard to fault the form of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner and the leader of this division. He should be a bit tighter after his Dubai effort. He lost by less than two lengths that day, which remarkably is the most he has ever lost by in 12 career starts. His early speed and peak level of consistency are tough to ignore. Imagination has been razor sharp since returning to sprinting. He ran a good second in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint before closing like a freight train to win in Saudi. He ran decently in a tough field last time out at Churchill Downs and would be the biggest beneficiary if Bentornato gets caught in a speed duel. Book’em Danno has four wins from five starts at Saratoga. He was on a roll last summer before his connections declined to run in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He ran decently when returning to run second off a layoff in the Carter (G2) and might be set to return to his best over his favorite track.
Using no. 2 Imagination, no. 3 Bentornato, no. 6 Book’em Danno
Leg D, Woody Stephens Stakes (G1), Saturday
Crude Velocity is the most talented 3-year-old in the country, in my opinion, and he will have another chance to strut his stuff Saturday. He had a ton of trouble on debut and still ran down Civil Liberty. Civil Liberty was making his fifth start that day and returned to win convincingly. Civil Liberty is a contender in this race, but if he could not beat Crude Velocity under those circumstance on debut, it is hard to see him doing so in this spot. The Bob Baffert trainee had no problem putting away Englishman in the stretch in the Pat Day Mile (G2) last out, and one could make the argument that Englishman is this colt’s biggest competition once more. Crude Velocity has a great style and a nice draw and will be very tough to beat.
Singling no. 6 Crude Velocity
Leg E, Metropolitan Handicap (G1), Saturday
This is a fantastic edition of the Met Mile. Nysos always has shown immense talent. His biggest question has been his ability to last at a classic distance. Though he has shown he can handle two turns, a one-turn mile seems like the perfect layout for this colt. The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner will be tough as long as his big effort in Saudi did not take too much out of him. Knightsbridge was dominant in his last pair of one-turn mile efforts at Gulfstream Park, earning 105 and 112 Beyer Speed Figures in those races, according to Daily Racing Form. He was establishing himself as a standout in this division before disappointing at Churchill Downs last out. There are reasons to forgive that effort and remain optimistic about this colt. He made a middle move into a hot pace in a race that featured a loaded field at seven furlongs. He could be a handful if he he returns to his best. I considered Journalism and Antiquarian, but I feel confident that Nysos and Knightsbridge are the two best dirt milers in the country.
Using no. 1 Nysos, no. 6 Knightsbridge
Leg F, Belmont Stakes, Saturday
This year’s Belmont Stakes is wide open and does not feature much early speed. The lack of front-runners could make things tough on Renegade and Golden Tempo, the top two finishers in the Kentucky Derby, who both benefited from a contested Derby pace. Of the two of them, I trust Renegade a bit more. He had more consistent form before the Kentucky Derby and gets off the rail this time around. If a deep closer is able to win, it will be Renegade. Chief Wallabee is going to put everything together one of these days, and it could be in this spot. He has enough tactical speed to get first run on many of his rivals and should improve in his second start in blinkers. I think he has as much upside as anyone in this field, and though he was not going to win the Kentucky Derby, getting pinballed in the stretch did not help his chances. Commandment also did not have smooth sailing in the Kentucky Derby. He entered the Derby with as good of a resume as anyone after reeling off four straight wins, including a victory over a loaded field in the Florida Derby (G1). Those who jump ship after a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby might end up regretting it. Powershift does not have the resume of many of his rivals in this race, but he could find himself on a loose lead in a race with many deep closers. Though he just broke maiden, he already has earned two Beyer Speed Figures that put him right in the mix with the top of this crop. The son of Constitution gives Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher two legitimate chances in this race.
Using no. 2 Powershift, no. 3 Chief Wallabee, no. 4 Renegade, no. 7 Commandment
20-cent Pick-6 ticket
1/3
1/3/4/5
2/3/6
6
1/6
2/3/4/7
Total: $38.40
