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Just under two weeks ago, the 79th Cannes Film Festival came to a close. With it, a point in the season has been passed. Regardless of how much Cannes factors into the eventual Oscar race, it feels like a good moment to assess the early awards season field. Now, that doesn’t mean that festival flicks are headed to the Academy Awards, but rather that it just brings us to a point where some of the notable potential contenders have actually been seen. So, today I present updated predictions, along with some thoughts on what we got out of Cannes in 2026.
Last week, I wrote here about some of the Cannes titles that could be contenders this season. In that piece, I wrote the following:
Last weekend, the 79th Cannes Film Festival came to a close, with the Palme d’Or going to Cristian Mungiu‘s Fjord. Every year, the end of Cannes is a point where I take a fresh look at my year in advance Oscar predictions. Next week, I’ll likely have an updated predictions piece to share with you, but today, I just wanted to list some of the Cannes titles that have the potential to make an impact at the next Academy Awards, given their bows in the south of France.
Winning the Palme is not necessarily a sign of Oscar contention to come, but like any other prestigious prize, it never hurts. Even if you just look at how NEON has managed to win the last seven Palme prizes in a row, not counting the COVID cancelled year, you can see how this victory works as a launching pad. Prior to Fjord, they’ve won with Parasite in 2019, Titane in 2021, Triangle of Sadness in 2022, Anatomy of a Fall in 2023, Anora in 2024, and It Was Just an Accident in 2025. That’s two Best Picture winners, four Best Picture nominees, and only one title (Titane) that was shut out entirely. The modern Cannes winner is actually more likely than ever to be an Oscar player, even if its ultimate fate can run the gamut from a nomination or two all the way to winning it all.
Unsurprisingly, given the above success, NEON is all over this piece, as they’re looking set to have several potential contenders in play. The two major ones are, of course Fjord, as well as Paper Tiger from James Gray. Not only does the distributor have a keen sense of what is going to play at Cannes, they’ve seemingly cracked the code when it comes to getting the Academy to go for more esoteric fare. NEON and Oscar are having a love affair right now, no doubt about it.
Fjord, on the surface, seems like a harder sell for the Academy than the non-Titane Palme winners, but bet against them at your own risk. A Best Picture nomination, provided it follows the roadmap of its cohorts, is very much in play, especially if Renate Reinsve and/or Sebastian Stan are contending in the Acting categories. That would also likely get Mungiu his first Oscar nomination as well.
Paper Tiger will have to overcome Gray’s work being consistently snubbed by the Academy, much like with the Cannes awards, but this one does sound like it has the goods to contend for a breakthrough citation. Whether someone like Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and/or Miles Teller becomes a player, or Gray himself is cited, getting attention there will give it a fighting chance at a Best Picture nomination.
Historically, Cannes sometimes does birth an Oscar juggernaut into the world, though last year really was something else entirely. For example, going back a ways, the success of No Country for Old Men springs to mind. So does, as it turned out to a slightly lesser degree, a film like Parasite. Just four years ago, the Best Picture nominees included movies from the fest like Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, and Triangle of Sadness. Three years ago, we had Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, and The Zone of Interest getting nominated. Two years ago, obviously Anora won it all, while other nominated (and in some cases, honored) movies were The Apprentice, Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and, of course, The Substance. Last year, nominees out of Cannes were It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Sirāt. Again, however, it’s far from a sure thing in most years. Usually it takes another festival or the precursors to really establish where we’re at, contender-wise. That’s just the name of the game.
As mentioned above in my Cannes piece, it seems like Fjord and Paper Tiger make the most sense for awards contention, at least on paper. All of a Sudden and Hope could be in play as well, depending on how things go, which continues to show a NEON related dominance from the festival over towards the Oscars.
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Remember, it’s still very early in the game. My last predictions article (found here) may look pretty similar to this newer one, but that’s the nature of the beast right now. Cannes helped a bit with some small changes, mainly in terms of boosting up Fjord, but I’m remaining very conservative, though still trying to tell a story with my nominees. That certainly can change, in terms of being conservative, but it won’t be for a bit, since nothing concrete, Oscar-wise, usually happens in the summer.
As always, you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions here at Awards Radar. We shall see, but this list is sure to change once again when I give it another update, likely in a month or so. Until then, the usual suspects from the initial ranking still loom fairly large, give or take the aforementioned newfound Cannes contenders…
Stay tuned for an update to these Oscar predictions as the summer continues!
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