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UFC Vegas 118: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim continues on the main card with a fight between Fares Ziam and Tom Nolan in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ding-Henrique prediction and pick.
Fares Ziam (18-4) is riding one of the hottest streaks in the UFC lightweight division, having won six consecutive fights. The French ranked contender dominated Mike Davis via unanimous decision in January 2025 before brutally finishing Nazim Sadykhov with strikes in his most recent outing, extending his winning run and solidifying his place at number 15 in the lightweight rankings. With six KO wins and elite grappling to complement his striking arsenal, Ziam is firing on all cylinders as he comes into his fight this weekend against Tom Nolan.
Tom Nolan (10-1) is one of the most exciting young prospects in the UFC lightweight division. The Australian standout earned a gritty unanimous decision over Viacheslav Borshchev at UFC 312 in February 2025, then followed it up with a slick first-round rear naked choke submission of Charlie Campbell at UFC Perth in September 2025. Now riding a four-fight win streak with five career KO wins and a rapidly expanding skill set, the 26-year-old “Big Train” arrives full of confidence as he comes into his fight this weekend against Fares Ziam.
UFC Vegas 118 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 118 Odds: Fares Ziam-Tom Nolan Odds
Fares Ziam: -310
Tom Nolan: +250
Over 1.5 rounds: -215
Under 1.5 rounds: +165
Why Fares Ziam Will Win
Fares “Smile Killer” Ziam (18-4) is on a six-fight win streak and ranked 15th in the UFC lightweight division, making him one of the most in-form fighters at 155 pounds heading into Saturday night. That level of sustained excellence against UFC-level competition is simply something Nolan has not yet had to deal with in his young career.
Ziam’s striking is elite, his combination of crisp boxing, powerful kicks, and finishing instinct has allowed him to stop opponents at will throughout his win streak. Nolan has shown heart and toughness, but his striking defense against a technically superior opponent like Ziam will be severely tested from the opening bell.
The experience gap is a major factor here, Ziam has faced and beaten ranked competition while Nolan is still climbing the ladder against unranked opponents. That jump in competition level is massive and could expose holes in Nolan’s game that regional-level fighters simply could not exploit.
Ziam’s grappling also gives him a complete game plan regardless of where the fight goes. Even if Nolan tries to use his wrestling and physical tools to drag Ziam into uncomfortable positions, “Smile Killer” has the submission awareness and scrambling ability to neutralize that threat.
Why Tom Nolan Will Win
Tom “Big Train” Nolan (10-1) is one of the most athletically gifted young fighters in the UFC lightweight division, and his combination of size, reach, and finishing ability gives him a legitimate path to a massive upset on Saturday night. At just 26 years old, Nolan is a rare blend of physical tools and rapid development that could catch a veteran like Ziam off guard.
Nolan’s four-fight UFC win streak includes victories over increasingly tough competition, and his rear naked choke finish of Charlie Campbell at UFC Perth showed that his submission game is sharp and battle-tested. If he can close the distance and get Ziam to the mat, the fight enters territory where the experienced Frenchman may be uncomfortable.
Ziam, despite his impressive win streak, has never faced a fighter with Nolan’s combination of size, reach, and physical athleticism at lightweight. Nolan’s 75-inch reach and 6’2″ frame give him a physical profile that Ziam simply has not dealt with on his path to a ranked position.
Nolan’s five career KO wins also prove that his hands carry real power capable of ending the fight at any moment. One well-timed overhand right or knee in the clinch, weapons Nolan has used before, could put Ziam’s winning streak to a sudden and dramatic end.
Final Fares Ziam-Tom Nolan Prediction & Pick
Fares Ziam enters this fight as the clear favorite, backed by a six-fight win streak and ranked status at number 15 in the UFC lightweight division. His technical striking, finishing ability, and experience against top competition make him a significant step up for the young Australian prospect.
Tom Nolan is no pushover though his size, reach advantage, and four-fight UFC win streak prove he belongs on this stage and has the tools to make this uncomfortable for Ziam. The question is whether his rapid development has been fast enough to handle a ranked, seasoned contender.
Nolan’s power and athleticism will keep this competitive in the early rounds, but Ziam’s technical precision and finishing experience should take over as the fight progresses. The experience gap will ultimately be too wide to overcome for the 26-year-old.
Fares Ziam keeps his streaking going via TKO in the second round, showcasing his elite striking and cementing his case for a top-10 opponent at UFC Vegas 118.
Final Fares Ziam-Tom Nolan Prediction & Pick: Fares Ziam (-310), Over 1.5 Rounds (-215)
UFC Vegas 118: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim continues on the main card with a fight between Fares Ziam and Tom Nolan in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ding-Henrique prediction and pick. Fares Ziam (18-4) is riding one of the hottest streaks in the UFC lightweight division, having won six consecutive fights.
