The Tigers’ rotation is getting a massive boost this weekend. Manager A.J. Hinch announced to the team’s beat this morning that two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal will return to start Saturday’s game versus the Guardians in Cleveland (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). Sunday could bring about another big return, as Hinch added that right-hander Casey Mize is likely to return Sunday, though he needs to complete one more bullpen session today before the team finalizes that decision.
That Skubal is set to return this quickly is remarkable. The Tigers announced in early May that their ace would require an arthroscopic procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow. That procedure took place not even five full weeks ago. Skubal has already made one rehab start, pitching five shutout frames with only two hits allowed and six strikeouts for Detroit’s High-A affiliate.
Skubal underwent an experimental new procedure — a “NanoNeedle” scope that figures to grow in popularity following Skubal’s incredibly swift return to a big league mound. (The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen detailed the manner in which the NanoNeedle differs from a traditional elbow scope back in mid-May, for those who are interested.) Blake Snell underwent the same procedure about a week and a half after Skubal and is on a similarly fast track; he started a throwing program last week, not even three weeks out from his procedure (via MLB.com’s Sonja Chen).
Prior to landing on the injured list, Skubal looked well on his way to a third straight Cy Young-caliber season. While he faces some steep competition this year — Yankees righty Cam Schlittler and White Sox righty Davis Martin have broken out with dominant performances — Skubal was sitting on a terrific 2.70 ERA with a strong 27.1% strikeout rate and a 3.6% walk rate that would be a career-best mark were he to sustain it. Metrics like FIP (2.11) and SIERA (2.88) support Skubal’s continued dominance.
While Skubal will draw the most headlines — understandably so — Mize’s return is also a major development. The former No. 1 overall pick had a career year in 2025 when he took the ball 28 times and turned in a 3.87 ERA with a career-best K-BB% (16.7) over 149 frames. He’s been even better this season, sprinting out of the gate with a 2.27 ERA in 47 2/3 innings over nine starts. Mize’s 26.5% strikeout rate and 12.8% swinging-strike rate are both career-highs by a wide margin. His 6.5% walk rate is an exact match for his career mark entering the season. Mize has largely moved away from his curveball and sinker to focus more heavily on a four-seamer/splitter/slider repertoire — and done so to great effect thus far.
If Mize indeed returns, he’d push rookie Troy Melton back to Monday, per Jason Beck of MLB.com. Melton has been far too good in his four starts with the big league club to consider removing from the rotation or sending to Triple-A Toledo. He’s pitched 25 2/3 innings with a 2.81 earned run average. That includes seven innings of one-run ball against the White Sox in Chicago and eight innings of two-run ball against the Rays in St. Petersburg. Melton’s 13.7% strikeout rate raises some skepticism about his ability to sustain this pace, but he’s fanned nearly 20% of his opponents over his past two starts — far closer to the 22% league average.
A six-man rotation for the Tigers looks like a logical step for the starting staff, Hinch noted. Skubal and Mize would join Melton, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty and Keider Montero in that scenario. The Tigers will face a decision when Justin Verlander returns from a hip injury later this month. Montero has pitched well in 12 starts. Flaherty has had a tough season but has improved over the past five weeks — and over his past three starts in particular. Valdez has a pedestrian 4.40 ERA overall, but a disproportionate amount of the damage against him has come in two meltdown starts earlier this season; he allowed 15 earned runs over eight innings between those two appearances but has a 2.97 ERA in his other 12 starts.
For an injury-ravaged Tigers club, tough decisions of that nature are good problems to have. Detroit’s season looked to be on the brink not long ago, but they’ve rattled off six wins in their past eight games. The Tigers are still a shocking 12 games under .500, but the lackluster competition in the American League leaves them only five and a half games back of a Wild Card spot. Detroit has a lot of work to do if there’s any hope of climbing back toward the top of the division, but the Tigers play three games in Cleveland this weekend and host the White Sox for three next week (with a series against a disappointing Astros club between those two); there’s a real opportunity for them to close some ground in the coming days, right as two key arms are ready to rejoin the fray.
