Can a 12-point forward really be NHL playoffs MVP? Jordan Staal’s unprecedented Conn Smythe case
LAS VEGAS — Jordan Staal’s remarkable run through the Stanley Cup Final has helped push the Carolina Hurricanes to within a win of a championship and put his name prominently in the Conn Smythe Trophy conversation.
It’s also left voters of the award, of which I’m one, with an interesting dilemma: Can we really give the playoff MVP to a forward with 12 points in 18 games entering Sunday’s potential clincher?
History does not provide a precedent for the case Staal has built over the past two months.
For context, 11 of the past 13 forwards to win the Conn Smythe finished either first or second in scoring that spring. Staal is currently tied for 22nd, behind several players who were eliminated in the second round.
Only one forward has ever been named playoff MVP with fewer than his 12 points, and when Dave Keon recorded eight points in 1967, his Toronto Maple Leafs were only required to get through two rounds to capture the Stanley Cup, playing 12 games.
Under a four-round format, the lowest point total by a Conn Smythe-winning forward was 16 by Claude Lemieux, in 20 games for the New Jersey Devils in 1995. That’s followed by the 19 points in 24 games by the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Sidney Crosby in 2016 and 19 in 23 games by the Chicago Blackhawks’ Patrick Kane in 2013.
Staal still has as many as two games to add to his count heading into Sunday’s Game 6, but he’ll likely wind up below the threshold of previous winners.
He’s also notably tied for fifth on the Hurricanes in scoring.
So, again, can a forward in that situation be the MVP?
It’s the fundamental question voters must wrestle with before casting their ballots by the 10-minute mark of the third period on Sunday night. The NHL takes a tally, regardless of the score, in every potential elimination game.
Among those who believe Staal has made a significant enough impact on the all-around success of the Hurricanes to merit serious consideration are veteran hockey writers Eric Duhatschek and Scott Burnside, both of whom have been recognized with the Elmer Ferguson Award, and 2014 Conn Smythe Trophy winner Justin Williams.
“Staal is an animal,” Williams told The Athletic, adding that it would be “refreshing” to see a forward with his defensive impacts get recognized by Conn Smythe voters rather than just simply picking a top scorer.
“I don’t see anyone on that Carolina roster who’s been more impactful — leadership, defense, and now, in the final, when it matters most, scoring as well,” Duhatschek said. “In fact, it’d be a welcome change, in my mind, if the Conn Smythe stopped routinely going to the playoffs’ leading scorer. That doesn’t always define most valuable player.”
“To see him step to the fore in an intense, even series like this and literally put his team on his back, especially given how Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov and at times Seth Jarvis have struggled in the playoffs, is not to be understated,” Burnside added. “He is literally the epitome of elevating at the most critical moments. For me, it’s who else should voters consider?”
The most obvious answer is Golden Knights forward Mitch Marner, who leads all playoff scorers with 29 points. However, it’s extraordinarily rare for a player from the losing team to win the Conn Smythe and typically requires a historic performance. When Connor McDavid was named MVP in an Edmonton Oilers loss two years ago, for instance, he had 42 points — the most by any player since 1991 — and eclipsed Wayne Gretzky’s all-time postseason record with 34 assists.
So if it’s a Carolina win, Marner as MVP seems unlikely.
The Hurricanes’ engine has been powered offensively by the Taylor Hall-Logan Stankoven-Jackson Blake line through these playoffs, although that trio hasn’t broken through as much in the final. Hall and Blake still share the team lead with 18 points, while Stankoven is tops with 11 goals.
Other candidates include winger Nikolaj Ehlers, who has a team-best eight points against the Golden Knights through five games, and defensemen K’Andre Miller and Jaccob Slavin. While they’ve all been big contributors, there certainly isn’t an overwhelming case to be made for any of them.
Staal’s candidacy is built on the totality of what he’s contributed.
He’s played the most minutes on a dominant penalty kill, humming along at a 91.2 percent success rate in the playoffs. He’s dominant in the faceoff dot, taking by far the most draws among Hurricanes this spring with a 56.4 percent win rate. His most common forward opponent in each playoff round failed to score a goal against Carolina: the Ottawa Senators’ Brady Tkachuk, Philadelphia Flyers’ Travis Konecny, Montreal Canadiens’ Nick Suzuki and, so far, Vegas Golden Knights’ Jack Eichel.
And he’s completely turned the Cup Final on its head by scoring in the first five games of the series, becoming just the fourth man in history to accomplish that feat. He would become the first player ever to score in six straight Final games if he finds the net again Sunday.
Regardless, the six goals Staal has already scored in the series have each been huge, and they’ve put Carolina on the precipice of lifting the Stanley Cup. Calling those contributions “massive,” Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour noted that his 37-year-old captain has been playing above expectations in the biggest games possible.
“You’re not necessarily expecting him to put up those kinds of numbers, and when he does, that’s like an added bonus,” Brind’Amour said. “I mean, he deserves (the praise). He’s playing great. We’ve got to get that one more (win) still, and he knows it.
“He’ll have our group ready.”
Voters will be ready, too.
If they end up giving the Conn Smythe Trophy to Staal on Sunday night, it’ll be an MVP vote unlike any we’ve seen before.
