Ryan Moore sides with Ballydoyle’s 1.7 million guineas speedball in key stallion-making race – but has he chosen right?
The Derby may be the ultimate stallion maker but, as the bloodstock industry feels the need to breed for speed, winning the Coventry almost certainly guarantees the victor a place at stud.
In the 20 years since Ascot’s 2005 revitalisation, the likes of Henrythenavigator, Canford Cliffs, Dawn Approach, Caravaggio and Calyx have won this race and taken up stallion duties. While their racing careers may have gone down different paths, the assurance that the first past the post will secure some sort of genetic legacy in the game is the overwhelming driver behind the maximum field we see declared for this year’s first proper test of a two-year-old.
Confucius is certainly bred to relish it. By No Nay Never, winner of the Norfolk, and out of Cheveley Park winner Millisle (herself by Starspangledbanner, the only sire to have two Coventry winners on his CV), you could not dream of a better combination for a race like this.
His performance rates a few pounds lower than what Aidan O’Brien’s last three winners of this race had achieved before arriving here but this year’s crop are a mixed bag and the overall level is slightly lower than normal, so the standard he sets is more than good enough with natural progression factored in.
Great Barrier Reef won the Marble Hill Stakes in comfortable fashion to remain unbeaten but his Racing Post Rating of 101 is the second-lowest in the last decade and you would have to go back that far to find the last time a Coventry winner arrived from that race (Caravaggio in 2016). He was one of the first off the bridle at the Curragh and stayed on strongly to pick up a speedy stablemate, but there was a slight suspicion that his rivals were early season, five-furlong types.
Night In Vegas carries the status of plucky underdog after humiliating his rivals in two races, including over course and distance. You could have bought 20 of him for the price of Confucius and Eve Johnson Houghton is a specialist in turning coal into diamonds. From a speed figure perspective, he will have to take a big step forward, but you could have said the same for the yard’s top-class colt Zavateri last season.
Night In Vegas: could take a big step forward on his third startCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)
Wathnan Racing’s hand at the meeting this year is incredibly strong and Ruler’s Pride and Royal Heritage waltzed home with consummate ease in weak Scottish maidens. The former has seen his form franked by Crystal Queen’s victory in the Hilary Needler, while the latter is a wonderful physical specimen and won as he liked at Hamilton last week.
Royal Heritage recorded a surprisingly strong time given James Doyle barely asked him to turn the engine on, never mind go through the gears. Still, it seems a slightly crazy move to run here only six days later. Only nine colts have run in the Coventry within a week of running, only four of those on their second start and only one had won on their debut. It is a big ask.
Of the rest, Mrair was clueless on his debut and still looked backward at Lingfield, but he clocked a decent time for the grade. If he improves again, he would have a big chance for the red-hot George Scott. His sire Mehmas has had nearly 80 runners at this meeting without success, though Persian Force, Wise Approach and Lusail all went close.
At juicy odds, High King is worth a second look for Donnacha O’Brien. He was last of 12 on his debut but he won easily at Fairyhouse on his second start. He is another with immense size and scope and beat an experienced rival in second and the fourth has already franked the form.
Strangely, he will be only fifth two-year-old by Calyx, who won this race in 2018, to run at Royal Ascot. The previous four finished second, fourth, fifth, and eighth respectively, all sent off monstrous odds, and his half-sister placed twice at the track in Listed and Group company. He could run a big race.
Analysis by Ross Brierley
No Nay Never quartet hold the Coventry key
By Tom Peacock, bloodstock journalist
No Nay Never dominated the Royal Ascot sire standings last year with four winners, including two juvenile races with Charles Darwin in the Norfolk Stakes and True Love, the 1,000 Guineas winner, in the Queen Mary.
The Coolmore stallion has already produced one Coventry Stakes winner through Arizona in 2019. This time around, he dominates the betting with the two market leaders.
Confucius, the pack leader and pick of Ryan Moore, is also the most expensive colt in the field as a 1.7 million guineas purchase from Tattersalls Book 1.
He is out of Cheveley Park winner Millisle, so the distance should be ideal with his sire also landing the Norfolk Stakes on the track.
No Nay Never: could hold the key to this year’s CoventryCredit: Colin J Kenny Photography
Alfareqa, the only one of Confucius’s siblings to have run, was by a more obvious staying influence in Frankel but seemed not to want more than seven furlongs.
Great Barrier Reef, Confucius’s paternal half-brother, might stretch out slightly further in time as his own full-brother Mystery Power picked up his biggest win over seven furlongs in the Superlative Stakes.
No Nay Never even has two more chances in Easy Answer and God Given Talent, the latter one of the most appealing outsiders who carries the Constitution Hill colours of Michael Buckley and is still part-owned by his influential breeder Paul Shanahan.
Last year’s successful sire in the Coventry was Starspangledbanner, through the St James’s Palace contender Gstaad.
The great chestnut has one runner in this year’s race in Cut A Dash. He has speed all through his pedigree and for all that several siblings have been disappointing, Richard Hannon’s runner impressed at York.
What they say
Aidan O’Brien, trainer of Confucius and Great Barrier Reef
It might have been a difficult decision for Ryan but he always loved Confucius since the first day he ran. They both look like two nice colts and everything has gone well with them since Naas and the Curragh.
Donnacha O’Brien, trainer of High King
We’ve always liked him and he won well at Fairyhouse. The track, trip and fast ground should be right up his street.
Donnacha O’Brien: “The track, trip and fast ground should be right up his street”Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)
James Ferguson, trainer of God Given Talent
He’s still learning a lot but I couldn’t be happier and we’re going in with a lot of confidence. From an experience point of view, I took him for a trial before that run at Newbury, and I genuinely think he’s taken a massive step forward from his first run. He was colty and green in the prelims at Newbury but I think he now knows what the world is about and he’s been much better behaved in the yard. He’s got the pedigree and I think the ground will be fine.
Karl Burke, trainer of Ruler’s Pride
He’s a lovely colt who’s in great form. He’s been working well and I think he’ll run a big race. It’s a hot race taking on a lot of unknown horses who can improve a lot from their first runs, but he’s in that bracket too.
Ed Walker, trainer of The Ginger Kid
I think he’ll run well. We were really disappointed with him at York then he did well to win from a bad draw at Nottingham. He’s a bit of a dark horse.
Reporting by Conor Fennelly
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