Heavy rain is expected over Florida this weekend with the chance for flash flooding along the state’s east coast as a front stalls over the Sunshine State. This front could potentially produce a tropical threat. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area to watch for possible development over Florida. The odds are low at this point. Meanwhile, the NHC is also monitoring an area in the Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region for potential development in the next 7 days.
MIAMI – After being spared from back-to-back hurricanes, Florida will continue to see the potential for flooding rain through the weekend as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking a new area to watch off the coast of South Florida for possible tropical development.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, former hurricanes Imelda and Humberto have left conditions in the Atlantic ripe for a persistent rainy and windy pattern throughout the Southeast. Tropical moisture and a stalled cold front across Florida will create widespread rainfall and an increased risk of flash flooding.
“Regardless of anything developing here, we had this residual boundary, this stalled boundary, that’s going to help instigate showers and storms and keep things unsettled and that moisture streaming in from the east,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Marissa Torres said. “It’s a really large, long moisture tail that leads into Florida.”
Persistent rain will build the flooding threat through the weekend and peak on Monday.
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Florida and Georgia flooding threat.
(FOX Weather)
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 1 out of 4 flash flood threat through Sunday for much of Florida’s Atlantic coast and parts of southeastern Georgia.
A Level 2 out of 4 threat covers part of the Space Coast on Friday and Saturday.
Widespread rain totals could reach between 3 and 5 inches on the state’s east coast, with isolated totals reaching 8 inches through Monday along the Atlantic coastline. Florida’s Treasure, Space and First coasts will see some of the highest rain totals for the state, according to current models.
This graphic shows expected rainfall across Florida and the Southeast through Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025.
(FOX Weather)
Additionally, persistent onshore flow may also elevate the risk of coastal flooding in low-lying areas and enhance the danger of rip currents.
All this talk of rain makes it a good time to mention that not all of the Sunshine State has been turned into the rainy state this fall. Florida is experiencing a tale of two states this year, with some of the driest conditions on the Gulf Coast and the wettest on the east coast.
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With a slower start to the Atlantic hurricane season and little signs of life in the Gulf, Florida’s west coast is having a dry run.
“The only thing you could hypothesize, if something does develop, moves over the Florida Peninsula, then it gets into the Gulf, then you might get some moisture, but there’s a very low chance that that happens,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Stephen Morgan said.
A graphic showing Florida’s current soil moisture differences on the east and west coasts.
(FOX Weather)
Tampa saw its driest September on record with under an inch of rain throughout the month. Tallahassee experienced its third-driest September with just over a half-inch of rain. Meanwhile, on the opposite side of the state, Miami saw 16.52 inches, its third-wettest September on record, and Daytona Beach received more than a foot of rain, marking its 10th-wettest September.
