Premier League Predictions: Chelsea vs Liverpool, Arsenal vs West Ham and the rest of Matchday 7 – The Athletic

Welcome to week seven of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where we need to talk about Brighton & Hove Albion.

Fabian Hurzeler’s team have played six Premier League games this season: two wins, two draws, two defeats. And what have I predicted for them? Two wins, two draws, two defeats. But how many points have they earned me? None. Because whenever I tip them to win, they draw or lose. When I tip them to draw, they win or lose. When I tip them to lose, they win or draw.

I keep telling myself this says more about a young, inconsistent team than it does about me. After all, they beat Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool at the Amex Stadium last season but drew there against Ipswich Town, Southampton and Leicester City, aka the three relegated teams. This term, their only league wins have come against City and Chelsea, impressively recovering from losing positions in both. They are consistently inconsistent.

Then again, in The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, the dreaded algorithm has got nine points out of Brighton — including four-pointers for being the only one to call their 1-1 draw at home against Fulham and their 2-1 defeat at Bournemouth.

At the risk of sounding wise after the event, neither of those results was a wild punt. (The algorithm doesn’t do those.) In both cases, I went for something a little bit edgier, tipping them to lose to Fulham and beat Bournemouth. So in these two instances, I overestimated their inconsistency.

Last week, I tipped them to get a draw at Chelsea. When Danny Welbeck equalised for them on 77 minutes, I thought I was onto a good thing. But they scored twice more in added time to win 3-1. Six-year-old Wilfred was far braver in predicting a 2-1 Brighton win at Stamford Bridge. Only that third goal, in the 10th minute of stoppage time, denied him a brilliant four-pointer.

You probably know this by now, but each week, four of us — a guest subscriber, the algorithm, Wilfred and I — are predicting the Premier League results.

We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct ‘unique’ prediction, so whereas the algorithm got four points for getting Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers spot-on, there were no bonus points for tipping City to beat Burnley. Wilfred deservedly got a bonus point for predicting a draw for West Ham United at Everton, while the rest of us went for a home win.

Matchday six was a bit of a struggle for all of us — including our guest subscriber Tom, who was left to regret allowing his head to rule his heart when he predicted his beloved Crystal Palace would draw 1-1 with Liverpool. He was right to say they would take a 1-0 lead and also right to say Liverpool would equalise late on. What he didn’t see coming was a 98th-minute winner from Palace substitute Eddie Nketiah. Somehow, I doubt the blow to his predictions challenge spoiled his celebrations.

Anyway, a weekend full of surprises — featuring a total of one correct scoreline and only 12 correct results out of a total of 40 predictions — ended with the algorithm extending its lead at the top to three points. I’m in second place, contemplating the fact I would be well clear of the algorithm if it weren’t for the Brighton factor. The subscribers are in third, but Wilfred has found form and is hot on their heels.

This week’s guest subscriber is Ben, 40, an Aston Villa fan from Hobart, Australia. I’m not allowed to see his or anyone’s predictions until I’ve submitted mine, but a source on The Athletic sportsdesk, speaking anonymously to protect relationships, has informed me that Ben has “gone big”.

Over to you, Ben.

Our subscriber’s match of the week

Aston Villa vs Burnley, Sunday, 2pm UK/9am ET

Ben says: “I’ll opt for the massive claret-off in B6 instead of Chelsea vs Liverpool or our national saint Big Ange’s search for a first Nottingham Forest league win. Burnley have put in a few impressive shifts but Villa will claim another three points here. Why? Because we bloody need to! Shout-out to chaos agent Emiliano Buendia, back after anterior cruciate ligament woes, and Evann Guessand, who looks on the brink of a breakout performance. UTV.”

Aston Villa 3-2 Burnley

Oli says: Everything points to a home win, with Villa’s season finally up and running and Burnley finding life tough after promotion. It won’t be easy — nothing seems to be easy for Villa at the moment — but the way they recovered from a poor start against Fulham last Sunday should do them a lot of good. On another note, is it just me or was John McGinn’s goal in that game possibly the most aesthetically pleasing one of the season so far?

Aston Villa 2-0 Burnley

John McGinn after scoring his neat goal last weekend (Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

The rest of Oli’s predictions

Bournemouth vs Fulham

The timing of this Friday-night fixture gives Bournemouth an opportunity to go second in the table. Who would have imagined that when they failed to win any of their first nine games under Andoni Iraola at the start of the 2023-24 season? They have gone from strength to strength, despite losing three of last season’s regular back four over the summer. This won’t be easy against a Fulham team who are reliably competitive, but another victory beckons.

Bournemouth 2-1 Fulham

Leeds vs Tottenham

I’m looking back at the line-ups when these two faced each other on the final day of 2022-23, a 4-1 Tottenham win that confirmed Leeds United’s relegation. It says here that Leeds had Sam Allardyce in charge, Joel Robles in goal and Weston McKennie on the right wing. Did any of that actually happen? Leeds looked in a sorry state at that point, but have regrouped and restructured. They’re not where they want to be, but Elland Road is a happy place. I fancy them to get something.

Leeds 2-1 Tottenham

Manchester United vs Sunderland

Sunderland have won once at Old Trafford since 1968. That was in May 2014, when United were under Ryan Giggs’ temporary management after sacking David Moyes following less than a year in charge. Life after Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement had got off to a troubling start, but who would have imagined they would be in a far worse predicament more than a decade later?

There’s a certain logic in thinking this will be one of those games where a survival instinct takes hold of United and they get another of those stuttering wins that allows them to believe everything might work out under Ruben Amorim. I could see that happening — the first bit, not the second bit. But no, I’m going all-in on promoted Sunderland, who have been so impressive and whose midfield looks so much better structured than United’s.

Manchester United 1-2 Sunderland

Arsenal vs West Ham

Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Arsenal have lost four home games in the Premier League. Two of those have been against West Ham, which is even more remarkable when you consider that, across those two matches, Arsenal had 50 goal attempts to their opponents’ 11. But even under Nuno Espirito Santo’s new management, and with those recent memories to sustain them, it is hard to imagine West Ham getting anything from this. A fairly comfortable Arsenal win.

Arsenal 2-0 West Ham

Chelsea vs Liverpool

At 5.02pm last Saturday, Liverpool were unbeaten and on course for a creditable draw at Selhurst Park. Performances were a nagging concern, but results were encouraging. Then came Nketiah’s stoppage-time winner for Palace, and then Liverpool lost again away to Galatasaray in the Champions League, where goalkeeper Alisson had to go off with a hamstring injury.

By 10pm on Tuesday, the various murmurs of the previous few weeks — about the form of Ibrahima Konate, Alexis Mac Allister and Mohamed Salah, the struggles of Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak and much else — had grown into wails of doubt. Liverpool need a result at Stamford Bridge, ideally a performance too. Is Chelsea away a good fixture or a bad one in these circumstances? It might suit Liverpool’s forwards more than, for example, Palace away did.

Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool

Everton vs Crystal Palace

Everton are still unbeaten in official games at their new stadium (three Premier League matches, plus a win against Mansfield Town in the Carabao Cup) but their early-season optimism has been dulled after a difficult fortnight.

There is only one thing stopping me from predicting an away win here — and that’s the fact that Palace, unaccustomed to juggling domestic and European commitments, faced Dynamo Kyiv in the Conference League in Poland on Thursday evening. Palace won 2-0, but Oliver Glasner only made two changes to his starting XI. Fatigue might hurt his team, but even so, I fancy a draw.

Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace

Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest

I would not have imagined at the start of the season that this would be 15th against 17th going into week seven. Both clubs have made a turbulent start and, while I expect things to calm down, at least one of them is going to be left with one win in seven come Sunday evening. However, Newcastle’s two league defeats came against Liverpool and Arsenal, and on both occasions the winning goal was scored deep in stoppage time. Forest’s three losses in the top flight were to West Ham, Arsenal and Sunderland, and the performances in those games were poor. That’s more of a concern. Home win.

Newcastle 2-1 Nottingham Forest

Wolves vs Brighton

So after all that venting about my struggle to keep up with Brighton’s inconsistencies, what am I going to say for their trip to bottom-of-the-table Wolves? Instinctively, I feel they will add to Wolves’ early-season misery. But the question here is whether, given everything I have said, I should predict the exact opposite of what I expect. Am I overthinking this? Possibly. Will I regret doing so? Probably. But I don’t think Wolves’ performances have been as bad as their results suggest.

Wolves 2-1 Brighton

Brentford vs Manchester City

I was at Brentford last Saturday and while there has rightly been plenty of focus on how badly Manchester United played, the home team’s tenacious, intelligent, incisive performance deserved praise. Igor Thiago was excellent in attack, but their wingers, Dango Ouattara and Kevin Schade, were impressive too. So were Jordan Henderson and Yehor Yarmolyuk in midfield. I’m overcoming my initial scepticism about the Keith Andrews appointment. That said, facing City is a significantly tougher task.

Brentford 1-2 Manchester City

(Top photo: Getty Images; design: Demetrius Robinson)