Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s condensed slate: Junior Caminero and Freddie Freeman.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
Best MLB Home Run Bets TodayOddsWhy I Like the PickJunior Caminero+239After a long ball in his past six games, Caminero is now up to 24 home runs for the season — a direct result of 100th percentile bat speed (80.0) and 96th percentile average exit velocity (93.5). Now he’ll face Stephen Kolek, who just so happened to concede three homers and nine earned runs in his last outing on June 21.Freddie Freeman+335Randy Vasquez has been downright horrible in his last seven appearances, registering a 7.34 ERA and a 7.22 FIP. It’s a span of time where LHBs are slashing an eye-popping .358/.416/.691 with a .465 wOBA off of the 27-year-old hurler. Freeman clearly sees the RHP well, as he’s 5-for-9 off Vasquez will three doubles.
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Junior Caminero 1+ Home Run (+239)
I’m only human, and honestly, these odds aren’t too bad for someone who has eight home runs in their past six games. We’ve long known that Caminero possessed the raw power to make a run like this possible, yet it’s breathtaking to see it happening in real time. After a prolonged long ball slump in late May and early June, the former top prospect is now up to 24 home runs for the season — a direct result of 100th percentile bat speed (80.0) and 96th percentile average exit velocity (93.5). Specific to Thursday, Caminero’s matchup is pretty nice, too. The Rays will draw Stephen Kolek, who just so happened to concede three homers and nine earned runs in his last outing on June 21. The right-hander also sports a paltry 16.0% strikeout rate, which ranks in the 11th percentile of MLB. If you don’t have the ability to miss Caminero’s bat, you’re in big trouble.
Freddie Freeman 1+ Home Run (+335)
For years now, Randy Vasquez has been able to out-pitch his ugly expected statistics, but that mind-numbing trend finally seems to be coming to an end. The right-hander has been downright horrible in his last seven appearances (six starts), registering a 7.34 ERA and a 7.22 FIP. It’s a span of time where Vasquez has surrendered 25 earned runs and only struck out 15. It’s also a span of time where LHBs are slashing an eye-popping .358/.416/.691 with a .465 wOBA off of the 27-year-old hurler. Yikes. Oddly enough, Freddie Freeman does not have a home run off Vasquez in his career, despite several divisional meetings since the beginning of 2024. That said, Freeman clearly sees the RHP well, as he’s 5-for-9 off Vasquez will three doubles. Don’t you think for a second that Freeman’s lost a step, either. The veteran’s .393 expected wOBA in 2026 ranks in the 96th percentile of the league.
