Jake’s World Cup 2026 Predictions: Staked 123.00pts | Returned 143.97pts | P/L +20.97pts | ROI 17%
***correct as of 11:30 BST (3/7/26)
Football betting tips: World Cup
Canada vs Morocco – Saturday 18:00
2.5pts Morocco to win at 4/5 (General)
0.5pt Morocco -1 handicap at 12/5 (Betway)
Paraguay vs France – Saturday 22:00
1.5pts Andres Cubas to be carded at 3/1 (William Hill)
1pt Diego Gomez to be carded at 17/5 (William Hill)
0.5pt Cubas and Gomez to both bet carded at 16/1 (William Hill)
Brazil vs Norway – Sunday 21:00
2pts Rayan to create 2+ shots at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Martin Ødegaard to commit 2+ fouls at 17/5 (BetVictor)
Mexico vs England – Monday 01:00
2pts Harry Kane to win 2+ fouls at 11/10 (Betfred)
1pt Jude Bellingham to score anytime at 5/1 (bet365)
*tips to be added throughout the round
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Canada vs Morocco
Co-hosts Canada have had a dream run to get to the last 16, winning two games against Qatar and South Africa to get this far. The 6-0 win against the former came against nine men, while the victory in the latter needed a last minute winner. Neither opponent of a very good standard.
Most certainly nowhere near the level of this Morocco side, who have been incredibly impressive at this tournament. They were the better team in a draw against Brazil, dispatched minnows Scotland and Haiti with ease before dominating the Netherlands for 120 minutes and prevailing on penalties.
I’m incredibly surprised to see a MOROCCO WIN available at 4/5 generally, and that simply has to be backed. The AFCON champs (I think) are superior in every single way, both on the pitch and off the pitch, but perhaps most importantly, they will play free with no fear having experienced deep runs in knockout competitions recently.
Let’s not forget they were World Cup semi-finalists in 2022 and followed that up with a run to the final of AFCON in front of an expectant home crowd. Canada looked like rabbits in the headlights for most of their game against a far inferior South Africa side, and this is a serious step up.
The fact that the game is being played in the US as opposed to Canada is a blow for Jesse Marsch’s side too. Keep it simple and back the better team here. While not wanting to get greedy, I think backing MOROCCO -1 HANDICAP is worth a smaller bet too.
Canada’s high-energy and high-pressing style could be picked apart by Morocco’s tidy and incisive football, and if the Africans get ahead the Canadians will have to take more risks and leave themselves more exposed defensively.
Score prediction: Canada 0-3 Morocco (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 11:15 BST (03/07/26)
Paraguay vs France
Paraguay’s elimination of Germany was the biggest shock in the round of 32, and it was a vintage South American underdog performance. Score a goal, scrap, fight and defend for your lives. Slow the opponents down with fouls committed and fouls won, and ultimately frustrate the life out of them.
Germany ran out of ideas in attack, but one thing is for sure, this France team won’t. Les Bleus are a relentless attacking juggernaut that will be incredibly difficult to stop for a full 90 minutes.
The weather could be against the underdogs too, with ‘excessive heat’ expected in Philadelphia which would make the dogged chasing, the concentrating and focus even harder for Paraguay against such a dominant side. It’s also worth noting that thunderstorms are reported to be in the area around kick-off so keep up to date as the start may be delayed.
Back to France, I think if anyone is to beat them at this World Cup they will need to score at least twice and I can’t see Paraguay doing that. France have scored two or more goals in 16 of their last 17 international matches and have a plethora of attacking players on the bench to keep their foot down too.
Paraguay will be scrappy and physical and I think could lose their heads if this gets out of hand, and while cards haven’t been prevalent at this tournament, I’m willing to back a couple of the South Americans TO BE CARDED.
The first is ANDRES CUBAS at 3/1. The 30-year-old midfielder was booked against Germany for a hard foul, and he is a consistent card collector.
Across his last 38 games for club (Vancouver Whitecaps) and country he has been carded 16 times, while he’s been carded in six of his last 11 competitive internationals. At the World Cup he’s averaged 2.77 fouls per 90 and on Saturday he’ll be tasked with containing all of France’s attacking stars, so has a very good chance of having his name taken.
Brighton’s DIEGO GOMEZ is also backed TO BE CARDED at 17/5. The midfielder was booked twice in the group stage – including in the pre-arranged draw with Australia – meaning he was suspended for the Germany game, but will be back at it here, kicking lumps out of France’s tricky players.
He’s collected seven cards in his last 15 competitive games for club and country and his tenacious nature means he’ll get stuck in. Likely playing on the right hand side, he’ll be tasked with containing Bradley Barcola and/or Desire Doue as well as an overlapping Lucas Digne, so could pick up another card here.
We have to back the CARD DOUBLE as well, with 16/1 available.
Score prediction: Paraguay 0-3 France (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 11:15 BST (03/07/26)
Brazil vs Norway
This could be box office. Two attack-minded sides going at it for a spot in the World Cup quarter finals. I was hoping to be able to back Norway at a bigger price than 15/8 to qualify, with that touch to short for my liking, and has me leaning towards Brazil in 90 minutes at 10/11.
Both sides have their flaws, but Norway’s defensive fragilities are greater than Brazil’s and that could be the difference in this clash which should be high scoring.
Lucas Paqueta’s injury could increase the chances of goals too, as Carlo Ancelotti could opt to start Endrick and play Matheus Cunha in the number 10 in the same system that saw them dominate Japan in the second half.
Either way, this should be fun. Jimmy’s got the Erling Haaland anytime scorer covered at a whopping price of 6/5 (general), so we’ll pivot to something a little different and back Brazil’s RAYAN TO CREATE 2+ SHOTS at 10/11.
The Bournemouth winger has really impressed since coming into the side half-way through the second group game, with the Brazil attack looking far more balanced with him in there. He’s been contributing too, grabbing an assist against Scotland, and has created multiple chances in both of his starts at the tournament.
He racked up four against Scotland and two against Japan, with the added bonus for this bet being that he’s been taking Brazil’s in-swinging corners and free-kicks from the right hand side. He will get plenty of space here given how attack-minded Norway are as a team, and if Brazil field an extra-attacking line-up, I’d be tempted to take 3+ shots created too.
Norway are a team who concede a lot of shots as well, shipping 11 to Iraq, 16 to Senegal and 14 to Côte d’Ivoire. They made wholesale changes against France and the ‘B’ team conceded 18 shots.
We’ll take this bet with Betfair and Paddy Power instead of Sky Bet, with the the former a bigger price as they aren’t offering extra-time inclusion. Hopefully Rayan gets this done in 90 minutes.
If the game is stretched, with a lot of transitions, I want to chance MARTIN ØDEGAARD TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at a huge price of 17/5. This is a knockout game, of a World Cup no less, meaning the jeopardy is incredibly high and Ødegaard has the capability to be cynical where required.
That was the case in the last round against Côte d’Ivoire when making two fouls, one coming late on when Norway were frantically trying to hold onto their lead, while he has made two or more fouls in eight of his last 23 competitive internationals. That’s a 35% hit-rate which would give a blanket price of roughly 15/8, and that’s before factoring in the stakes and the opposition here.
Ødegaard will be up against Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães who are both excellent at drawing fouls, particularly the latter. The fact the Norway skipper mainly operates from the right hand side of a midfield three means he could also lock horns with Vinicius Jr too, making the 17/5 price exceptional value in my book.
Score prediction: Brazil 3-2 Norway (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Odds correct at 11:15 BST (03/07/26)
Mexico vs England
This will undoubtedly be England’s toughest test at the World Cup so far, playing co-hosts Mexico in their own back yard and at altitude. The Three Lions will have to be at the top of their game to go into the Azteca and get a win, with a raucous crowd and a tenacious opposing team champing at the bit to eliminate one of the pre-tournament favourites.
The co-hosts have been dealt a kind hand, playing against the weakest group in the tournament before taking out Ecuador in the last round – a game that could’ve be filed as after the lord mayors show for the Ecuadorians who peaked to beat Germany in order to qualify.
There is no doubt in my mind that this is going to mentally and physically difficult for England, a hostile atmosphere the likes some of the players will have never seen before and a climate none will have ever experienced – especially having just two days to acclimate.
The other members of the Sporting Life football team are extremely confident of an England win…! I think it’s going to be much more difficult than that, ultimately coming down on a draw in normal time, but for our best bets we are focusing on England’s two main men, starting with the skipper.
HARRY KANE TO WIN 2+ FOULS looks a cracking bet at 11/10. Not only has he won an average of 1.53 fouls per 90 at the World Cup, but there are two other factors that make me really like this bet.
The first is the relieving of pressure. I have no doubt that Mexico will come flying out of the blocks here looking to score an early goal that would put them in a great position to be scrappy and frustrate England as they chase, so Kane could be called upon to win a few easy fouls from clearances to give some of the players a breather.
He is exceptional at it too, selling the foul that is.
The second is the Mexico approach to this, which simply has to be to stop Kane at all costs. Granted England have other match winners, but Kane is the main threat, so I imagine the hosts will be doing anything and everything to slow him down.
The same goes for JUDE BELLINGHAM, who is one of England’s talismans and who so often delivers when we need it most. He has been outstanding at this tournament so far, with his all-round game and goal contribution putting to bed the discourse about whether he should be in the team or not.
Bellingham is a ‘bull by the horns’ type of player who is perhaps one of only a few in England’s side that will relish this occasion of playing at a hostile footballing theatre with the aim of knocking out the home nation. He is a whopping 5/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME and that is simply massive.
He’s netted twice at the tournament already, and both were crucial goals. The first was a quality run and finish against Croatia to put the Three Lions 3-2 up, and the second was the opener against Panama.
Were it not for an all-time performance from DR Congo’s goalkeeper and Bellingham would have more to his tally. The Real Madrid midfielder had three attempts all expertly saved, but he was a constant threat with his well-timed runs into the box.
He’s averaging 2.58 shots, 1.72 shots on target and 0.37 xG per 90, so is absolutely England’s second best goal threat behind Kane, and 5/1 looks insultingly big. If England are to win in Mexico City, Jude will have to show up.
It’s worth noting that the top price for this bet is with bet365 who are also offering both super sub and extra-time inclusion on this bet, which is the cherry on top.
Score prediction: Mexico 1-1 England (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 14:55 BST (03/07/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
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