Todd Cordell
• Betting Analyst
12+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 6, 2026 , 10:13 AM ET
• 4 min read
Back Walker Buehler to continue home cooking against the Diamondbacks.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Walker Buehler on the mound in a recent start against the Dodgers.
The San Diego Padres snapped an eight-game losing streak against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball.
They are -115 favorites to follow it up and win their series opener against Arizona, and my Diamondbacks vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks expect them to do just that.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Padres today: Padres moneyline (-115)
Walker Buehler was blown up in his most recent start. Otherwise, it’s been smooth sailing for him with the San Diego Padres.
He’s allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his past 10, and he’s been lights out at home all season — posting a 3.13 ERA and strong 50.4 GB%.
The Arizona Diamondbacks rank dead last in OPS against righties. They’re not a team that should give Buehler much trouble.
Look for the Padres, who are up to 16th in wOBA vs. RHP over the last month, to provide run support against Brandon Pfaadt. Bet this to -125.
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Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
This total is a little high. Buehler hasn’t allowed more than three runs at home all year, and he has held Bottom-15 opponents in OPS to two runs or fewer in all four starts in San Diego.
The Diamondbacks are hitting .209 with a .285 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past month. It’s tough to envision them doing much damage against Buehler in a pitcher’s park.
Although the Padres have improved offensively of late, it’s important to remember they rank dead last in runs, batting average, and OPS. They’re not a team that runs it up.
I’d play this to -120.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 51-40, +1.00 units
- Over/Under bets: 49-39-4,, +5.39 units
Diamondbacks vs Padres weather
Temperatures in the low 70s are expected with winds blowing southeast. Boost to the pitchers.
Diamondbacks vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks -105 | Padres -115
- Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+160) | Padres +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Diamondbacks vs Padres trend
The Padres have cashed the Under in 16 of their last 25 home games for +6.15 units and a 23% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info
Location
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date
Monday, July 6, 2026
First pitch
9:40 p.m. ET
TV
FS1
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Brandon Pfaadt
(1-1, 5.40 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher
Walker Buehler
(5-4, 4.61 ERA)
Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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