FIFA World Cup 2026 Predictions: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Ahead of the Quarter-Finals
The final eight of the 2026 FIFA World Cup have now been confirmed, but who is likeliest to emerge victorious? We check in on the latest Opta supercomputer projections.
We are now entering the business end of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In what is already the longest tournament in history, with 96 games played, there are now just eight remaining, in terms of both games and participants.
Following a one-day break on Wednesday, the first gameless day of the tournament, the final eight will begin to get whittled down further.
Here, we look at the Opta supercomputer‘s latest projections for the rest of the 2026 World Cup.
Before the World Cup kicked off just under a month ago, the supercomputer had Spain as the favourites to emerge victorious in North America. Luis de la Fuente and co. won the World Cup in 16.1% of the supercomputer’s 25,000 pre-tournament simulations.
The top four pre-tournament favourites remain (Spain, France, Argentina and England) in the competition, but the nations the supercomputer ranked fifth to eighth (Portugal, Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands), have all been eliminated.
As we head into the quarter-finals, Spain are still looking good according to the supercomputer, though are no longer the favourites. La Roja now have a 21.3% chance of winning the World Cup, higher than pre-tournament given there are fewer teams to stop them, but they have now fallen below new favourites, France.
It could be that the supercomputer was left unimpressed by Spain’s goalless draw with Cape Verde on Matchday 1, a result that, in hindsight, was not that bad given the Blue Sharks also drew with Uruguay and Saudi Arabia, before giving Argentina a scare in the last 32.
Spain have still not conceded a goal in North America, though, and Unai Simón has now gone longer without conceding a goal than any other goalkeeper in World Cup history.
A stumbling block for Spain will likely lie in the semi-finals, where, should they get past Belgium, they could face France. Didier Deschamps’ men also looked ever so slightly shaky on MD1 against Senegal but have largely gone from strength to strength since.
Their last-16 clash against Paraguay, in which Les Bleus needed a penalty to win an ill-tempered contest, did reduce the supercomputer’s confidence in them slightly, though it still believes in France noticeably more than any other team.
Deschamps has a pretty good chance of leaving his post as France manager on a high, then. They won the 2026 World Cup in 27.3% of simulations, while they reached the final 44.3% of the time.
England have always looked relatively good in the eyes of the supercomputer. The Three Lions were seen as the third-likeliest side to win the World Cup pre-tournament and are now fourth favourites.
What has also never changed is that, percentage wise, England are a fair chunk off the favourites. Despite a thrilling 4-2 victory over Croatia and an impressively hard-fought 3-2 win over Mexico at the Azteca, the supercomputer believes Thomas Tuchel’s side have just a 16.5% chance of bringing the trophy home.
Their drop down to fourth could be as much to do with the form of those above them, but it might also be to do with some relatively inconsistent performances from England. A draw with Ghana preceded wins over Panama and DR Congo, but they weren’t particularly impressive in any of those games.
Maybe the supercomputer has a strong belief in the importance of the right-back position, which has been a major talking point ever since England’s 26-man squad was announced. Reece James has spent time out injured, and neither Jarell Quansah (who became the fourth England player to get sent off at a World Cup against Mexico) nor Djed Spence have looked convincing on the right-hand side of defence.
Another side who have had a leaky defence in recent games are the reigning champions, Argentina. The supercomputer has occasionally been spooked by Lionel Messi and Co. as the knockout rounds have progressed, though they still have a 17.3% chance of retaining their crown.
La Albiceleste needed extra-time to squeeze past Cape Verde in the round of 32, while they looked almost certain to be eliminated by Egypt in the last 16 before they were able to produce some late heroics. They are now unbeaten in 11 World Cup games, and that winning mentality must count for something.
Of the nations who have never won the World Cup before, it is Norway who the supercomputer fancies the most. Ståle Solbakken’s side have a 6.6% chance of lifting the trophy on 19 July, and a 37.7% probability of getting past England in the quarter-finals. The presence of Erling Haaland, who is also in the Golden Boot race, probably accounts for most of the supercomputer’s optimism.
Morocco, the surprise package of the 2022 World Cup, have been given a 3.7% chance of going two steps further than they did in Qatar and winning the title, though they face France in the quarter-finals.
Switzerland have enjoyed the second-easiest run to the last eight, according to Opta Power Ratings, but they lost to Argentina 69.1% of the time in the supercomputer’s predictions. It also gives them just a 3.8% chance of pulling off an upset for the ages and winning the World Cup.
Like many fans in the wider footballing community, the supercomputer has not been convinced by Belgium, who have battled hard to make it to the last eight. They comprehensively dispatched co-hosts the United States in the last 16, who had impressed until that point, but they had somewhat stumbled to that round.
Belgium now win the World Cup in 3.6% of the 25,000 simulations, up from 2% before the USA game, but it is the lowest of any remaining team.
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