What we’re hearing about the MLB trade market: Latest on Corey Seager, Sonny Gray and more
When it comes to the possibility of the Texas Rangers trading shortstop Corey Seager, the deadline represents something of a last call.
The Rangers don’t want to part with Seager, mind you. They want to get him healthy and make a legitimate run at the postseason. But if they sputter over the next three-plus weeks, the idea of moving Seager will at least warrant internal discussion.
Once the season ends, Seager will gain the right to veto any deal as a player with 10 years of major-league service, five consecutive with the same club.
As it stands, Seager’s contract enables him to block deals to eight clubs. For one reason or another, the vast majority of those likely would have no interest in acquiring him, according to people briefed on the provision but unable to comment publicly.
Even without restriction, Seager, 32, would be difficult to move. He has made six trips to the injured list in the past two seasons, including twice this campaign for lower back inflammation. He is also owed the balance of his $31 million salary for 2026, plus $155 million over the next five years.
The Rangers almost certainly would need to pay a chunk of that down, particularly when the next collective-bargaining agreement is likely to include greater payroll restrictions in some form.
The flip side: When healthy, Seager is a difference-maker at a premium position.
A number of clubs, including the Boston Red Sox, asked the Rangers about Seager last offseason, sources with knowledge of the conversations said. The curiosity of those teams grew after the Rangers traded second baseman Marcus Semien, their other major signing prior to the 2021-22 lockout. The Rangers’ response on Seager was clear: We would need to be overwhelmed.
Obviously, that did not happen. But the Rangers wound up cutting payroll by $37 million, the fifth-largest percentage decrease in the sport, behind St. Louis, Minnesota, Washington and Cleveland. With the league on the verge of a lockout, Rangers owner Ray Davis — a member of the league’s labor policy committee — might be inclined to make additional cuts if the team falls out of contention.
The Rangers, holding the third American League wild-card spot and a half-game behind in the AL West, are not nearly at that point. If anything, they might get stronger over the next three weeks as they expect the returns not only of Seager and left fielder Wyatt Langford, but also pitchers Jack Leiter, Cody Bradford and Jordan Montgomery.
The schedule, too, looks favorable. The Rangers are five games into a 19-game stretch in which they will play all but three games at home. The combined winning percentage of their remaining opponents is the lowest of the AL West clubs, and tied for the fourth lowest in the AL.
In other words, the Rangers should be in a strong position, particularly in a division in which the Seattle Mariners are less imposing than expected and the Houston Astros are struggling to patch together a rotation. But in part due to their injuries, the Rangers are only a .500 club.
Right-handers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi also could become the topic of trade discussions if the team collapses before the deadline. But both already possess full no-trade clauses, and deGrom, in particular, might be disinclined to leave Texas unless the team intended to rebuild. That seems unlikely.
As for Seager, the Rangers would not necessarily be locked in to him once he gains 10-and-5 protection. Players can always waive their no-trade rights, just as right fielder Brandon Nimmo did when the Rangers acquired him from the New York Mets for Semien.
In any case, the coming weeks will be critical for any number of clubs seemingly riding the buy-sell seesaw, from the Red Sox to the Twins to the Detroit Tigers, the Baltimore Orioles to the Arizona Diamondbacks to the San Diego Padres.
Since winning the 2023 World Series, the Rangers are six games under .500, with a bottom-five farm system.
To avoid confronting some hard questions, they will need to pick it up. And soon.
Gray to Atlanta? Maybe — if Red Sox sell
The Atlanta Braves are one of several rotation-needy teams expressing interest in Boston Red Sox starter Sonny Gray, according to people familiar with the situation who were not authorized to speak freely on the topic.
For a few reasons, the Braves stand out as an intriguing match for him.
They lead their division even with essentially a full rotation on the injured list. They are fit to cover both the prospect and financial cost (the St. Louis Cardinals are paying about half of Gray’s remaining commitment, and either the Red Sox or a new team would owe the right-hander slightly more than $6 million after the trade deadline). And while Gray, 36, holds a full no-trade clause, he lives in Nashville and presumably would embrace playing in Atlanta, about a four-hour drive away.
A case for the Cubs to pursue Tarik Skubal
Eno Sarris and Derek VanRiper
Unless Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos makes a run at Tarik Skubal, Gray, who owns a 2.61 ERA over 89 2/3 innings and 16 starts, profiles as the best option.
There is, however, at least one major hurdle.
The Red Sox may not sell.
Boston wants to see if it could fight its way back into the playoff picture, though people briefed on the club’s thinking suggested the Red Sox will be realistic about their position as the deadline gets closer.
Despite being as many as 14 games below .500 on June 24, the Red Sox, like so many other teams, are hanging around just well enough to complicate the trade market. Since that low-water mark, Boston has won 10 of its past 12. The Red Sox are just three games behind the third American League wild card, with FanGraphs giving them a 27.5 percent shot at making the postseason.
The Red Sox are already receiving a lot of calls in case they end up on the sell side. They carry a handful of popular trade targets. Gray is one of them.
Again: Wacha, Lugo likely staying put
About a month ago, The Athletic reported that the Kansas City Royals were not as comfortable trading right-handers Seth Lugo and/or Michael Wacha as they were parting with catcher Freddy Fermin at last year’s deadline.
Nothing has changed since, even though the Los Angeles Angels are the only team with a worse record than the Royals in the American League.
A year ago, the Royals knew Carter Jensen was nearly ready for the majors, making Fermin expendable. They have no such potential replacements for Lugo and Wacha. And with shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and third baseman Maikel Garcia signed long-term, they do not plan to rebuild.
The Royals, according to people briefed on their plans, are telling clubs they will listen on Lugo and Wacha, but their asks will be massive.
Left-hander Cole Ragans, who recently underwent a UCL repair procedure, is out until the middle of next season. Lefty Kris Bubic is eligible for free agency. The Royals will need to add to their 2027 rotation even if they keep both Lugo and Wacha. And they would have only a month to start that process before the lockout begins on Dec. 1.
Lugo probably would not bring much back in a trade, anyway. His 4.56 ERA is above the 4.22 league average. His 5.45 expected ERA is in the bottom 11 percent. He will be 37 next season, and he is owed $20 million in 2027 plus a $3 million buyout on a $17 million club or vesting option for ‘28.
Wacha, on the other hand, leads the AL in innings pitched and, at 35, is an All-Star for the first time since 2015. He is owed less money than Lugo — $14 million in ‘27 plus a $1 million buyout on a $14 million club option for 2028. And his deal includes only a limited no-trade clause, while Lugo has full no-trade protection, according to a person briefed on the details.
Still, Wacha’s expected numbers also might deter some clubs. His 4.05 expected ERA is above his actual 3.45, and only slightly better than league average.
Would a team meet the Royals’ desire for multiple top prospects to acquire him? Seems doubtful.
Not such a bad pick after all! (Kind of)
When the Tampa Bay Rays pick second in the amateur draft that begins Saturday, it will be their highest selection since they chose shortstop Tim Beckham with the first overall pick in 2008.
Beckham played for four teams in a seven-year major-league career, never fulfilling the promise of a 1-1 pick. Pedro Alvarez went second in 2008, Eric Hosmer third, Brian Matusz fourth and (gulp) Buster Posey fifth. But the selection wasn’t a complete loss for the Rays.
At the 2017 deadline, the Rays sent Beckham to the Orioles for pitcher Tobias Myers. And in Nov. 2021, they dealt Myers to the Cleveland Guardians for third baseman Junior Caminero, who was 18 at the time and had not yet played in the United States.
Caminero, over 171 plate appearances in his first season in the Dominican Summer League, batted .295 with a .914 OPS. He intrigued the Rays with the way he made hard, frequent contact. But he didn’t intrigue them that much. The Rays, according to officials with both clubs who were granted anonymity for their candor, asked the Guardians for other players first.
Both the Rays’ miss on Beckham and the Guardians’ miss on Caminero serve as reminders of the humbling nature of player evaluation. Rather than brag about the Caminero deal, Rays officials will talk about another seemingly minor deal in which they gave up a future All-Star — left-hander Cristopher Sánchez, whom they sent to the Philadelphia Phillies for infielder Curtis Mead in November 2019.
Around the horn
• Nearly two months ago, The Athletic wrote about the potential for the Seattle Mariners to trade a starting pitcher at the deadline. That potential appears even stronger now that right-hander Luis Castillo has returned to form.
Castillo, the team’s highest-paid and most veteran player, has a 3.25 ERA in 44 1/3 innings since May 14. The Mariners, in their six-man rotation, recently produced a stretch of six straight quality starts by different pitchers. Oh, and by the way, lefty Kade Anderson — the No. 3 pick overall out of LSU last year — has a 1.36 ERA in 14 starts at Double A.
Presuming everyone stays healthy, the Mariners certainly could entertain moving a starter at the deadline. Their needs, a high-leverage reliever and right-handed hitter, are similar to those of many clubs. They also are mindful that left fielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman J.P. Crawford are eligible for free agency.
Castillo, earning the balance of his $22.75 million this season and $22.75 million next season, would appear the most likely starter to move. The Mariners value his veteran presence and leadership. But if ever a team was in position to move a starter, it’s Seattle.
• As the Guardians await the returns of third baseman José Ramírez and outfielder Angel Martínez, a right-handed hitting first baseman could be on their wish list.
The Guardians signed Rhys Hoskins to a one-year, $1.5 million free-agent contract to fill that role. Hoskins, 33, has proven valuable in the clubhouse, but is batting only .181 with a .691 OPS.
Kyle Manzardo, the team’s left-handed hitting first baseman, recovered from a slow start to post back-to-back .800-OPS months in May and June before slumping again in a limited sample this month.
Something else to keep in mind with the Guards: They have used only five starters, so they could look to add depth to their rotation as well as their bullpen.
• There are always surprise trades, especially with teams eyeing starters with club control in a market that generally lacks starting pitcher options. But despite a subpar season in Triple A, the Mets are still holding starter Jonah Tong in high regard.
While executives from different teams suggested the Mets would attract suitors if they put Tong on the market, New York likes him too much to do so, which makes any trade seemingly unlikely. Heading into the season, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Tong as the No. 72 prospect while three other publications placed him in the top 50.
According to people familiar with the Mets’ thinking who were granted anonymity in exchange for candor, to even merit consideration, another team would have to value Tong as a top-50 prospect and offer players New York loves.
The Mets counted on Tong to provide depth for their rotation and he failed to do that in the first half. In Triple A, he holds a 5.90 ERA with 74 strikeouts and 36 walks in 61 innings.
• We’ll believe San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will sell when we see it. But if Preller makes Mason Miller available, he will be challenged to acquire a prospect as good as the one he gave up for the All-Star closer, shortstop Leo De Vries.
The game’s No. 2 prospect in Law’s latest rankings, De Vries entered Wednesday batting .281 with 10 homers, 28 stolen bases in 33 attempts and a .799 OPS as a 19-year-old at Double A.
De Vries was the centerpiece of the package of the four-player package Preller sent the Athletics for Miller and lefty J.P. Sears. Miller had four-plus years of control then; he’s down to three-plus now. He would still command a haul, though. He has performed better with the Padres (0.89 ERA, 61 IP) than he did with the A’s (3.16 ERA, 136 2/3 IP)
