Quinn Allen
• Betting Analyst
7+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 9, 2026 , 10:59 AM ET
• 4 min read
The Padres will jump on Merrill Kelly.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) pitches.
The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Diego Padres tonight, with the improving Griffin Canning on the hill for the hosts.
My Diamondbacks vs. Padres predictions are targeting San Diego to jump on the inconsistent Merrill Kelly.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 9.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Padres today: Padres moneyline (-121)
Merrill Kelly takes the mound tonight for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he’s struggling to limit hard contact. The righty has a 51.3% hard-hit rate over his last two outings and an alarming 11.54 xERA. Kelly has also allowed 3.27 HR/9 during that span.
The San Diego Padres, meanwhile, counter with Griffin Canning. While he’s struggled overall this season, Canning has posted a respectable 3.24 FIP over his last two appearances, and the righty hasn’t allowed a single long ball.
After scoring 10 runs on Wednesday, the Padres will stay hot and punish Kelly, while Canning will continue to find his form against a Diamondbacks offense with just 72 wRC+ over their previous six contests.
I’ll play this pick up to -140.
COVERS INTEL: Canning has been significantly better at Petco Park, posting a 4.28 FIP at home compared to a 5.96 mark on the road this season.
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Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+109)
The Diamondbacks bullpen owns a very solid 3.04 FIP over the last week while allowing a hard-hit rate just under 30%. They’ve consistently limited damage, and have barely allowed any home runs, either.
I expect the Padres to score some runs off Kelly, but Arizona’s relievers have been lights out, and should be able to contain a San Diego lineup who isn’t exactly consistent, despite their recent explosion.
As for the Padres pen, they haven’t been as good with a 4.94 FIP, but as previously mentioned, the Diamondbacks are not thriving offensively. Canning should be able to limit the damage before handing things over to the bullpen.
I’ll play this pick up to -130.
Quinn Allen’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 34-34, -4.21 units
- Over/Under bets: 37-29, +2.26 units
Diamondbacks vs Padres weather
Conditions should be mild and calm at Petco Park tonight, with temperatures around 71 degrees at first pitch before falling into the upper 60s. Humidity will increase as the evening progresses, while winds remain light at roughly 5 to 7 mph. With no rain expected, weather should have minimal impact.
Diamondbacks vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +113 | San Diego -117
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-186) | San Diego -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (+113)
Diamondbacks vs Padres trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+13.55 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info
Location
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date
Thursday, July 9, 2026
First pitch
9:40 p.m. ET
TV
DBacks.TV, Padres.TV
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Merrill Kelly
(6-8, 5.71 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher
Griffin Canning
(1-6, 6.71 ERA)
Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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