Where to watch
Japan vs Ireland
ITV1, 11.10am
Fiji vs England
ITV1, 2.10pm
South Africa vs Scotland
ITV1, 4.40pm
Argentina vs Wales
ITV1, 8.10pm
Best bets
Japan +20
1pt Evs Hills
England to win by 11 to 20 points
1pt 10-3 bet365
South Africa -17
2pts Evs Hills
Argentina to win by one to 12 points
1pt 9-4 bet365
Japan v Ireland
Japan famously overcame Ireland in a 2019 World Cup pool match on home soil but they have suffered three big Dublin defeats since then, going down 39-31, 60-5 and then, last November, 41-10.
The Brave Blossoms were worthy winners against Italy in their opening Nations Championship match last week, making it back-to-back wins after they overcame Georgia last autumn, while their fixture before that was a one-point defeat to Wales.
They are around 20-point handicap underdogs against an Ireland team showing ten changes from last week’s fightback win over Australia and are worth backing with that generous start.
Japan were impressive against Italy, particularly up front, and while Ireland may not be as troubled as they were by a focused Australia side last week, they have made ten changes, have two uncapped props on the bench, and start Ciaran Frawley at fly-half, his first appearance in the number ten shirt anywhere for more than a year.
Fiji v England
A long trip to South Africa last week brought up England’s fifth successive Test defeat, and now they’ve headed all the way back to Liverpool to face Fiji on Saturday before jetting off to Argentina.
England have suffered similarly poor runs in recent years. They lost five in a row in the summer and autumn of 2024, while in the build-up to the 2023 World Cup they lost five out of six, culminating in a first defeat to Fiji.
The pressure is on coach Steve Borthwick and it’s possible that given their tight schedule and heavy travel commitments, he might have wanted to make wholesale changes, but there are just two alterations to last week’s starting line-up.
One is Henry Slade, who comes back in at centre after it had seemed Borthwick had turned his back on the Exeter man.
It’s hard to see England turning it around and suddenly producing a convincing performance and a 20-point handicap looks big, but it’s fair to say Fiji aren’t the most consistent and reliable team to be taking them on with.
A win is what matters for England and backing them to win by 11 to 20 points at decent odds appeals more than a handicap bet.
South Africa v Scotland
World champions South Africa were ruthless in their victory over England last week and even though they have made ten changes to the side from that match, their depth is such and their identity so strong that it’s not hard to see a repeat showing.
Scotland performed well to defeat Argentina in Cordoba and have fly-half Finn Russell back from injury. But it’s a short turnaround after a long trip and facing a fresh Springbok side with World Cup-winner Handre Pollard pulling the strings at fly-half is a huge challenge.
The Scots have struggled to put points on South Africa – they have lost the last nine meetings and hit the 20-point mark only once in that time, failing to score a try in the last two meetings.
The Boks started and finished strongly against England and can do the same at Loftus Versfeld to cover a 20-point handicap.
Wales v Argentina
Victory over Fiji last week was a huge positive for Wales, who had started as four-point underdogs but they haven’t rested on their laurels as they face a tougher test away to Argentina.
Head coach Steve Tandy has replaced fly-half Dan Edwards, who started four of Wales’s five Six Nations matches, with Sam Costelow while star winger Louis Rees-Zammit has been dropped to the bench.
Los Pumas were convincing 52-28 winners in Cardiff last November at a time when Welsh rugby was at a low ebb, but back-to-back wins over Italy and Fiji have provided at least some respite.
Argentina will have been stunned by last week’s defeat to Scotland so we can expect them to dig in but Wales can do enough to keep this close.
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