In 2023, Brian Harman showed that longshots can come through as British Open champions.
Harman, a 110-1 longshot three years ago, conquered Royal Liverpool to win his first major. It marked the first winner north of +5000 since Shane Lowry (+8000) won in 2019.
These winners generally prove the exception rather than the rule. In the last two years, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler closed inside +2000.
Still, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that a longshot plays well. Here are two I predict offer a higher ceiling than their British Open odds imply.
2 Best Open Championship Sleepers for 2026
J.J. Spaun (+8000)
At a minimum, the price on a previous major championship winner offers initial intrigue.
J.J. Spaun @ +8000
Spaun started his first Open Championship last year, finishing T-23rd at Royal Portrush.
I don’t place much stock in the performance. Portrush offers minimal similarities to Birkdale, where Spaun should improve.
What should give potential backers encouragement about Spaun is his iron play. Amongst active golfers, he ranks fourth this year in SG: APP, including third to small greens.
He’s gained off the tee in every start since the Masters. Amongst active players, he ranks 35th in SG: OTT this year when it’s “difficult” or “very difficult” to gain.
Spaun won the Valero Texas Open this year and, entering the Scottish Open, finished 12th or better in three of his last four events.
He also produced immaculate ball-striking metrics at Harbour Town, a correlative course to Royal Birkdale.
Missed cuts at all three majors this year leave something to be desired. But contextualize the performances against the price, and I like Spaun’s profile at Birkdale.
Andrew Novak (+20000)
If you’re a buyer into the Harbour Town-Royal Birkdale similarities, Novak offers a strong sleeper candidacy.
Andrew Novak @ +20000
He finished 16th at the Pete Dye design this year, but regressed with a Sunday 74. Last year, he finished as the runner-up to Justin Thomas in South Carolina.
This year, only Spaun and Collin Morikawa outpaced him in SG: BS this year. Novak also began well at the Scottish Open, sitting inside the top-10 after Round 1.
Novak, like Spaun, previously demonstrated good iron play into small greens. Amongst active golfers, he ranks 17th in SG: APP to greens measuring below tour average.
Major form this year offers a mixed bag.
He missed the weekend at Augusta National and Shinnecock Hills, but Novak finished T-26th at Aronimink. In his first two rounds, he gained 5.9 strokes against the field.
A win at these odds is unlikely, but it would not surprise me if Novak outperforms his market rating.
