MOBILE, Ala. (WALA) – The primary weather concern through Tuesday will be localized flooding from repeated rounds of heavy rain.
An exceptionally moist atmosphere will allow thunderstorms to produce very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. While most communities will receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, isolated areas could see up to 4 inches where storms repeatedly move over the same locations.
The Weather Prediction Center continues to place the entire area under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall through Tuesday, with coastal communities under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) on Monday.
Flooding is expected to remain localized, but streets, intersections, and poor drainage areas could quickly become water-covered during heavier downpours. If you encounter a flooded roadway, remember: Turn Around, Don’t Drown.
TODAY: Hot and Steamy with PM storms
Get ready for another hot and humid day across the Gulf Coast. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower 90s, but with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, it’ll feel more like 100° to 107°.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already developing this morning near the coast and along the I-10 corridor. As we head into the afternoon, those storms will become more numerous across the area. A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. While not everyone will experience severe weather, any thunderstorm will be capable of producing dangerous lightning and brief heavy rainfall.
TONIGHT: A mild night with a small chance for a passing shower
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease after sunset, but a few storms may linger into the evening hours. It will remain warm, muggy, and partly to mostly cloudy overnight, with lows only falling into the middle to upper 70s. The humid air mass stays firmly in place, setting us up for another active weather day on Monday.
TOMORROW: Flooding potential with an increase in rain coverage
Monday looks to be the wettest day of the week. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected as deep tropical moisture combines with an upper-level disturbance moving closer to the Gulf Coast.
Temperatures will be held in the upper 80s to near 90° thanks to increased cloud cover and rainfall, but periods of heavy rain will become more likely throughout the day. Some storms could produce rainfall rates high enough to cause localized flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Frequent lightning and gusty winds will also accompany stronger storms.
LOOKING AHEAD: Heavy rainfall through the beginning of next week
The unsettled weather pattern continues through Tuesday, with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms expected each day.
A slow-moving upper-level low will keep abundant tropical moisture in place, allowing storms to produce heavy rainfall. Most locations are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated spots picking up as much as 4 inches where storms repeatedly move over the same area.
By the second half of the week, high pressure begins to rebuild across the Southeast. That means we’ll gradually transition back to a more typical summertime pattern with scattered afternoon storms and temperatures returning to the lower to middle 90s.
BEACH SUMMARY: Increasing rip current risk
If you’re heading to the beach this weekend, conditions will require extra caution. A Moderate Rip Current Risk continues for Alabama beaches and much of the western Florida Panhandle on Sunday. However, conditions become more dangerous on Monday and Tuesday, when the Northwest Florida beaches, including Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties, are expected to see a High Rip Current Risk.
Even when the Gulf looks relatively calm, rip currents can be strong enough to pull swimmers away from shore. If you’re visiting the beach, swim near a lifeguard whenever possible, avoid swimming alone, and always pay attention to the beach warning flags.
Water temperatures remain in the mid-80s, making for comfortable swimming, but afternoon thunderstorms are expected each day. If you hear thunder or see lightning, get out of the water immediately and head indoors. The UV Index will also remain Very High to Extreme, so sunscreen, plenty of water, and shade breaks are highly recommended.
TROPICAL UPDATE: No development
The Atlantic Basin is quiet, with no tropical systems expected to impact the Gulf Coast at this time. Although tropical moisture will continue streaming northward into the region, it is not associated with an organized tropical cyclone. The main concern through the upcoming week remains heavy rainfall rather than tropical development.
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