The aerospace industry gathers at the Farnborough airshow next week with attention fixed firmly on whether Airbus and Boeing can build the planes they have already sold, rather than on winning new orders.
RBC Capital Markets, in a preview note, said the show, which runs from 20 to 22 July, is unlikely to deliver major catalysts, with the focus squarely on execution and the industry’s ability to support planned production increases.
Order announcements, historically the airshow’s headline event, matter less than they once did.
RBC noted that Airbus and Boeing have already announced 1,210 orders in the first half of 2026, above the 995 average for the same period between 2022 and 2025.
Combined, the two manufacturers are sitting on a backlog of roughly 16,000 unfilled aircraft, giving them demand visibility to the end of the decade.
Airshow orders have averaged around a third of annual orders since 2015, but RBC expects a relatively light haul this year, with perhaps 500 aircraft ordered.
The main event for investors will be Airbus, the only large manufacturer hosting investor meetings at the show.
RBC expects Airbus to use the airshow to set out a 2028 target for adjusted operating profit of 10 billion to 10.5 billion euros, a reset below current market forecasts of just over 11 billion.
The bank also anticipates guidance for 2028 deliveries of 1,000 to 1,050 aircraft.
Investors are likely to be disappointed if Airbus guides below 1,000 deliveries, sets profit guidance under 10 billion euros, or declines to provide a consolidated medium-term view, RBC said.
Recent delivery data has been encouraging.
Airbus handed over 89 aircraft in June, up 41% on a year earlier, bringing second-quarter deliveries to 237 and beating market expectations.
To meet its full-year guidance of around 870 aircraft, Airbus needs a further 519 deliveries in the second half, a target RBC considers achievable.
Even so, supplier confidence in Airbus reaching a rate of 75 A320s a month remains fragile, scoring just 46% in RBC’s latest survey, with the constrained engine supply chain the main culprit.
Defence is set to feature more prominently than usual this year.
RBC pointed to uncertainty over the 2027 US defence budget and the cost of the Iran war, with suppliers ranking the ramp-up of missile and munitions production as the conflict’s most significant near-term impact on the industry.
The bank also flagged the traditional airshow trade, in which airframe makers tend to outperform heading into the event before suppliers take the lead coming out of it.
Over the past decade, suppliers have gained an average of 230 basis points in the week after the show, almost double the airframe and engine makers.
RBC said supplier sentiment on Boeing’s production ramp continues to improve, helped by steadier output of its 737 MAX.
