Today is going to be humid and stormy across parts of Michigan, and the wildfire smoke that has dissipated somewhat early today is expected to push back in over Michigan.
First, let’s talk about the storms. There is only a slight risk for severe weather today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are working their way across Northern Michigan this morning.
The afternoon storm window is roughly noon to 4 p.m. and the southern section of the Lower Peninsula will have the storm risk then. The biggest threats today will be heavy downpours sparked by all this humidity, as well as damaging winds.
The storms are expected to blow across the state at 40 to 50 mph.
There is also a small chance for some hail and that an isolated tornado or two could spin up.
Here are the statewide forecast highlights from the National Weather Service teams across Michigan:
We face a dual weather threat Saturday as a cold front brings the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon while smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to degrade air quality across the state.
The National Weather Service has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather across much of Michigan, with the greatest threat occurring between noon and 4 p.m. as a cold front pushes southeast through the state.
Damaging winds will be the primary hazard, though isolated tornadoes and hail are also possible. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a 15 to 30 percent probability of damaging winds, with storms expected to move quickly at 40 to 50 mph. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will create an extremely humid environment capable of producing heavy downpours, though the fast storm motion should help limit flooding concerns.
An Air Quality Alert remains in effect through midnight Saturday for all of Michigan as wildfire smoke from Canada continues to impact the region. While visibility improved overnight in some areas, northwest winds behind the cold front may push moderate to dense smoke concentrations back over the state this afternoon and evening. The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy recommends limiting strenuous outdoor activity and remaining indoors when possible, particularly for sensitive groups.
High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 60s to low 70s near Lake Superior to the mid 70s to near 80 degrees in southern Michigan. Northwest winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph, with higher gusts possible in thunderstorms.
Beach Hazards Statements are in effect for Lake Michigan shorelines where dangerous waves and currents are expected, with wave heights reaching three to six feet. Small Craft Advisories cover portions of Lake Superior, Lake Huron, and Lake Michigan through early Sunday morning.
Sunday will bring a brief respite from active weather as high pressure settles over the region. Expect mostly sunny skies with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 80s and more comfortable humidity as dewpoints drop into the 60s. Light winds will shift to the south, potentially bringing slightly warmer conditions to areas away from Lake Michigan.
The next weather system arrives Monday into early Tuesday with widespread rain and thunderstorms returning to Michigan. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Day Three Slight Risk for severe weather Monday, with all hazards possible as a deepening low pressure system moves through Ontario. Those with outdoor plans early next week should continue to monitor the forecast for updates.
A pattern change takes hold by midweek as northwest flow and surface high pressure bring dry conditions and cooler temperatures through late next week. High temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees or slightly below, which is about 10 to 12 degrees cooler than normal for late July across northern Michigan. This unseasonably cool pattern is expected to persist through at least Friday.
