Tropical Depression Two is moving erratically toward the northwest, according to the afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center, but it is still expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha later today or tonight.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across portions of the state’s west coast, Big Bend area, and Panhandle, with widespread rainfall in the rest of the state. A tropical storm watch is in effect for much of Florida’s Panhandle, and a storm surge watch (meaning there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation) is in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
An isolated tornado or two are possible over the Florida Big Bend region today, the NHC said.
The tropical depression is expected to produce up to 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, reaching up to 6 inches in some areas, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Bertha expected to form near Florida today
Tropical Depression Two is expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha Monday. Heavy rains and thunderstorms are forecast.
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Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week, forecasters said, potentially bringing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
While the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm, forecasters said Saharan dust and strong wind shear would likely prevent it from becoming a hurricane. If it does become a tropical storm, it would be called Bertha, the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Arthur, in June, was the season’s first.
“Dry air and hostile wind shear across the Gulf will be the biggest factors in whether this depression organizes,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said in an email. “Right now, our forecast expects those conditions to prevent significant strengthening. However, if the depression encounters a temporary reduction in wind shear, it could intensify more rapidly and track farther west toward Texas. The next 24 to 48 hours will be key as to where this storm will move later in the week.”
“Under any realistic scenario, TD 2 is predominantly a rainmaker,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger, “and not even an impressive one due to northerly shear keeping most of the storm’s convection over water.” He forecast periodic rainbands across inland North Florida for the next two days, expanding west into the western Panhandle and eastern Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from the Ochlockonee River in North Florida to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings are expected over the next day or two.
The tropical depression is expected to turn slowly northwestward along the northern Gulf Coast over the next few days, forecasters said,
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Here’s what forecasters are seeing as of 1 p.m. CT Monday, July 20, 2026:
Where is Tropical Depression Two? Will it become Tropical Storm Bertha?
At 1 p.m. CT, the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 85.6 West. The depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 3 mph. A slow northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or two, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
- Location: About 110 miles south of Panama City
- Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
- Present movement: Northwest at 3 mph
Tropical storm warnings, watches
- Tropical Storm Watch:
- Ochlockonee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
- Storm Surge Watch:
- Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, Louisiana
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48 hours. A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
Forecast path for Tropical Depression Two
Forecast positions, wind speeds for Tropical Depression Two
According to the National Hurricane Center, here are the projected wind speeds looking forward.
- 12 hours: 40 mph
- 24 hours: 45 mph
- 36 hours: 50 mph
- 48 hours: 50 mph
- 60 hours: 45 mph
- 72 hours: 40 mph inland
- 96 hours: 35 mph over water
- 120 hours: 30 mph inland
Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Two
Florida weather radar for July 20, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Tropical Depression Two hazards
Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Storm surge: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
- Mouth of the Mississippi River, Louisiana to AL/FL Border: 2-4 ft
- Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, Florida: 1 to 3 ft
- Morgan City, Louisiana to Mouth of the Mississippi River: 1 to 3 ft
- Lake Pontchartrain: 1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Rainfall: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.
Tornadoes: An isolated tornado or two are possible over the Florida Big Bend region today.
Surf: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No. Saharan dust and strong wind shear have been making environmental conditions difficult for anything tropical to develop. But Florida will get wet.
“This tropical rainstorm will likely move into the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area, bringing flooding rain across portions of the southeastern United States,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in an email. “While rainfall will be welcome across portions of the Florida Panhandle due to an ongoing drought, the flooding risk can be increased due to dry soil. This dry, hard soil can allow the water to run off instead of being absorbed right away.”
➤ Tropics on watch for Bertha. When past storms by that name appeared
National Hurricane Center watching two tropical waves
The National Hurricane Center is also keeping an eye on two tropical waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean.
Eastern Atlantic: A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 38W, south of 19N. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air.
Eastern Caribbean: An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted over the nearby Caribbean waters.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What’s changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
What are the X’s on the hurricane map?
There are some changes in the National Hurricane Center symbols in 2026.
In previous years, the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook map showed all systems with a lowchance (less than 30%) of development as a yellow X, including systems that had a near 0% chance in both the two-day and seven-day forecast periods.
Beginning in 2026, systems in which development is not expected (near 0% in both two- and seven-day forecast periods) will be depicted as a gray X.
- Tropical systems in which development is near 0% in both the two- and seven-day forecast periods will be shown as a gray X.
- If a system has a near 0% chance of development over the next two days but a higher chance over the next seven days, it will be shown with a yellow X.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
‘It only takes one.’ Always be prepared for hurricanes
Can scientists really trust El Niño forecasts yet?
Oceans are holding excess heat, so while El Niño can limit hurricanes, scientists warn storms can still form.
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall tomake it an active season,” CSU said. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
“The northern and eastern Gulf, the Carolina coast and the western Caribbean remain areas where rapid tropical development can occur,” according to AccuWeather. “Even in a below-average year for tropical storms and hurricanes, it only takes one storm to cause significant loss of life and catastrophic damage.”
“We want people to pay attention to the forecast, because those warm waters can allow for rapid intensification, and the forecast can evolve rapidly,” DaSilva said.
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When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Hurricane season names 2026 Atlantic
Here is the complete list of the 21 names designated for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, maintained by the World Meteorological Organization.
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
- Arthur: Tropical Storm Arthur formed June 17, 2026.
- Bertha, BUR-thuh
- Cristobal, krees-TOH-bahl
- Dolly, DAH-lee
- Edouard, eh-DWARD
- Fay, fay
- Gonzalo, gohn-SAH-loh
- Hanna, HAN-uh
- Isaias, ees-ah-EE-ahs
- Josephine, JOH-seh-feen
- Kyle, KY-ull
- Leah, LEE-ah
- Marco, MAR-koe
- Nana, NA-na
- Omar, OH-mar
- Paulette, pawl-LET
- Rene, re-NAY
- Sally, SAL-ee
- Teddy, TEHD-ee
- Vicky, VIH-kee
- Wilfred, WILL-fred
Is there a tax holiday in Florida for hurricane supplies?
No. On Aug. 1, 2025, the sales tax on specific hurricane supplies was permanently removed.
Among the items now permanently exempt from sales taxes are:
- batteries
- portable generators
- capable of producing 10,000 running watts or less
- waterproof tarps
- must be 1,000 square feet or less
- portable gas cans
- capacity of 5 gallons or less
- ground anchor systems and tie-down kits
- smoke detectors or smoke alarms
- carbon monoxide detectors
- fire extinguishers that meet certain requirements
- life jackets
- sunscreen
- insect repellent
Bottled water, first aid kits, and many food items purchased at the grocery store were tax-freeprior to the passage of the permanent exemptions added in 2025.
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
C. A. Bridges and Cheryl McCloud are journalists for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://naplesnews.com/newsletters.
(This story was updated to add new information.)
