SYRACUSE, N.Y. – A splendid sunny start to the work week, my pick day for this Monday, before the weather takes a tumble on Tuesday with an increase in smoke and strong thunderstorms too! The deep blue sky will fade a touch by sunset today, replaced with clouds at times tomorrow. The next chance for rain arrives late morning Tuesday before more numerous thunderstorms develop later in the day. We are also concerned for wildfire smoke to slide back into Central New York.
MONDAY: Lots of sunshine to start the week! Just a few isolated puffy cumulus clouds in the afternoon, turning to a mix of sun and clouds by late day. Warmer, but low humidity sticks around. A light breeze during the afternoon. Wind: SW 3-8 in the morning, then 5-10 MPH. High: 82.
High temperatures for Monday
Here’s the air quality forecast for Monday through Monday night from Airnow.gov. After starting Monday morning with good/smoke-free conditions, the air quality index will turn moderate later Monday night with a more southerly wind direction. The orange areas representing unhealthy air for sensitive people will likely be in our area Tuesday afternoon and evening as the wind shifts more from the southwest to west direction.
Air quality forecast for Monday due to wildfire smoke
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and not as cool but still comfortable in the evening, then turning mostly cloudy late. Becoming a bit breezy and more humid late at night. Some light-moderate smoke levels arrive by late at night as well. Wind: SE 3-10 MPH. Low: 68 then rising late at night.
The almanac numbers for Monday and Monday night
TUESDAY: Some concern for wildfire smoke to return to CNY due to the wind shift, with a potential for air quality alerts later in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy overall, with scattered showers and a thunderstorm arriving middle to late morning along a warm front, drying out by the middle afternoon, then numerous thunderstorms late afternoon to evening along a cold front. There is a risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5), with damaging winds, heavy rainfall, hail, or even a tornado after 2 PM until 11 PM. Warm, humid & breezy! Wind: SE-S 10-20 with gusts to 30+ MPH. High: 83, then falling late day. Low: 66.
The next two days forecast
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday morning with a warm front passing by to the north; this should not be severe. Later in the afternoon and evening, there will be breezy winds, breaks of sunshine, and high humidity levels. As a cold front approaches, a couple of rounds of thunderstorms will arrive between 2 PM and 10 PM. These storms have the potential to be severe with high wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes. The Severe Storm Prediction Center highlights CNY in the moderate risk for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Severe thunderstorm risk Tuesday from 2 PM until 10 PM
Along with the mentioned severe storm risk comes the chance for flash flooding Tuesday between 12 PM and 11 PM. The threat is low for CNY according to the Weather Prediction Center at NOAA. I could see some areas getting slammed with three or more inches of rain if strong storms track over the same spots, producing rapidly rising waters and flooding if that happens. Stay tuned to the Tuesday PM forecast to say the least!
A flash flood risk for Tuesday from Noon until 11 PM
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers mainly morning to midday, drying out in the late afternoon. It will be breezy and slightly cooler, with falling humidity and more breaks of sunshine towards sunset. High: 74. Low: 56.
THURSDAY: Patchy valley fog early, otherwise sunshine! A nice dry day with low humidity, dew points in the 50s. Pleasant temperatures and lighter wind. Another cool overnight; you can leave the windows open! High: 76. Low: 55.
FRIDAY: Sunshine! Just a few thin high cirrus clouds around. Beautiful weather with low humidity (dew points in the 50s), and even warmer temperatures. Feeling like summer again! High: 82. Low: 61.
SATURDAY: Little to no wind. Mostly to partly sunny sky and a third dry day in a row. A warm day, rising humidity for the evening. High: 85. Low: 64.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and dry in the morning and midday, then becoming mostly cloudy with the risk for showers and thunderstorms, especially late day and evening. The afternoon will feel hot with warm and humid conditions. High: 86.
The complete 7 day forecast
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