As the Detroit Tigers entered the All-Star break in 2026, they had salvaged what started out to be a terrible season, falling 16 games under .500 and 11.5 games behind the division lead. But since June 1st, they have been as good as any team in the league and pulled to within 4.5 games of a playoff spot as of Tuesday, and seem poised to challenge for a division title.
We have seen the Tigers go on a magical run and make the playoffs against all odds, and we’ve seen them make a historical collapse, blowing the biggest division lead ever blown in major league history. That’s just the past two seasons. But the bottom line is that they have themselves in contention, raising questions about whether they will try to trade the reigning two-time Cy Young winner, Tarki Skubal.
We have analyzed the cost of extending Skubal and come up with a starting point of at least $350 million over 8 years. That would be the highest contract ever given to a pitcher in terms of both total dollars and average annual salary.
We have also been reading the gossip that the Tigers are unlikely to trade Skubal before the Aug. 3 deadline. Here, we will examine the trade and non-trade scenarios, without getting into speculation about specific players being acquired in a deal.
A strong argument can be made that the worst possible outcome would be that the Tigers keep Skubal for a failed playoff run, or an early playoff exit, and then Skubal leaves as a free agent, with the Tigers receiving only a supplemental first-round draft pick as compensation.
One could also make the case that the Tigers could actually improve their roster in both the short term and the long term by making a trade. The Tigers have some depth in their starting rotation, with Casey Mize, Framber Valdez, Troy Melton and Jack Flaherty behind Skubal. Justin Verlander is due to return shortly, and Jackson Jobe is expected back before too long. Keider Montero was one of their best starters but has been pushed to the bullpen.
In a shortened postseason rotation, the Tigers would be replacing Skubal with one of those mentioned above instead of pushing them to the bullpen or off the playoff roster entirely. It’s a downgrade, but they’d be in position to demand an impact bat in return.
Needless to say, Skubal’s value to a new team would be greater if they are able to sign him to a long-term contract. That would significantly reduce the number of teams that could afford him.
But in that scenario, a team would have to give up both trade value in the form of prospects or younger players, AND his lucrative salary, which we’ve pegged at $350 million plus. And if Skubal and his agent, Scott Boras, are determined to hit the open market, the Tigers have only the rest of this season’s value to deal with.
The alternative is to trade Skubal as a rental, for the last two months of the 2026 season plus the playoffs this season. It would still take a major haul for the Tigers to trade their ACE. They would be looking for one starting pitcher to replace Skubal in the rotation, plus young players or prospects who are sure to make an impact at the major league level in the short term.
Here are some comps for players in similar situations as Skubal, and some scenarios that Tigers’ fans will find familiar.
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By comparison, perhaps the second-best pitcher in the American League in 2025 was traded prior to the 2025 season when the Chicago White Sox dealt their ace, Garrett Crochet, to Boston for four prospects.
In exchange for Crochet, the Red Sox sent catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth, and right-handed pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez to Chicago. The Red Sox then signed a six-year extension with Crochet for $170 million, an AAV of $28.333 million.
That was a record for a pitcher with four years of service time. Skubal now has five-plus years, with two months to go before free agency. The prospects included the 25th- and 54th-overall ranked according to MLB Pipeline.
Teel graduated from prospect status after debuting in 2025 and has become Chicago’s primary catcher. Meidroth also graduated after reaching the majors in 2025. His on-base skills and defensive versatility have made him a regular part of the White Sox infield. Montgomery opened 2026 at Double-A, earned a quick promotion to Triple-A, and was promoted to the White Sox in June after hitting his way through the system. González remains in the organization as a pitching prospect and has not yet established himself in the major leagues.
Crochet was traded as a pitcher with two years of control remaining. Skubal has just this season. Skubal has two Cy Young seasons; Crochet has one runner-up season. Perhaps these factors somewhat offset each other, but the four prospects, two in the top 100 or top 54, are an indicator of what the Tigers could ask for in a trade.
Another indicator is the fact that Crochet was traded to one of the bigger-spending clubs in the game. One that could afford a $170 million extension. Any club hoping to acquire and extend Skubal will need a bigger checkbook.
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Justin Verlander was traded by Detroit to Houston in July 2017, with a season and a half remaining on a seven-year contract. Verlander waived a player option that would have paid him below market for the 2020 season as part of the deal. Detroit also picked up $17 million of the remaining salary, bringing the cost to Houston in the range of $20 million per year.
In exchange, the Tigers received prospects Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron, and Jake Rogers. While Cameron surfaced in the major leagues, Perez was a bust due to injuries, leaving Rogers, now a backup catcher, as the only valuable player in the deal. What we learn from this is that the Tigers dealt one of the best pitchers in the game at the time in order to receive prospects, and they were willing to pay salary to get them.
Obviously, they hoped to get greater value from the prospects, but look to how the prospects were valued at the time of the trade, rather than how or whether they panned out. This was early in the Chris Ilitch ownership years.
Verlander would go on to win a World Series with the Astros, sign a two-year extension with Houston that was the highest ever for an MLB pitcher at $33 million per season, and then break his own salary record by signing with the Mets for $43.333 million.
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Some say that the worst-case scenario would be for the Tigers to hang onto Skubal for another title run in 2026, and then let him walk for nothing but a draft pick as compensation, assuming there is any compensation after the ‘26 season (likely there will be, as the qualifying offer will have been made before any lockout).
Scherzer was the top prospect acquired by Detroit in a trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and Edwin Jackson to Arizona prior to the 2010 season. The Tigers also acquired Austin Jackson, Dan Schlereth, and Phil Coke in the deal. He had made his MLB debut with the Diamondbacks and would become a fixture in the Tigers’ rotation for the duration of his control years, winning a Cy Young Award in 2013.
The Tigers reportedly made Scherzer a contract offer of $144 million over six years, or $24 million per season, which he declined. His gamble paid off, as he signed a seven-year contract worth $210 million with the Washington Nationals, where he won a World Series title, two Cy Young awards, and five top-five Cy finishes.
The Tigers were in the midst of what would be their fourth consecutive division title, with a star-studded pitching rotation that included Cy Young winners Verlander, Scherzer, and David Price, along with future Cy winner Rick Porcello, 2013 ERA champion Anibal Sanchez, and Drew Smyly. The failure to get any return for Scherzer, at least in the form of prospects if not some offensive punch, may have set the club on a course for rebuilding, which they ultimately did beginning in 2015. The team would eventually be swept in the playoffs by the Baltimore Orioles, and did not return to the postseason for another decade.
There is a difference between where the Tigers were in 2014 and where they are now. Owner Mike Ilitch was in his golden years, to say the least, and desperate for a winner. The Tigers were going all in, and they weren’t about to trade the reigning Cy Young winner as the playoffs approached.
It took some serious convincing to get him to sell at the trade deadline in 2015, as a number of players approached free agency and the team’s playoff hopes were circling the drain. He even doubled down the following winter, pushing payroll into luxury tax territory under new GM Al Avila for the next two seasons.
The 2026 Tigers are contenders, for sure. But they also have several prospects in the pipeline who could be part of a nucleus that they expect to help them contend for years to come. They have one of the highest-rated farm systems in the game. If they could cash in their ACE for a haul of major league-ready prospects, they might be able to contend in 2026 and extend that window for another four or five years.
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We can look at two trades involving David Price and the Tigers. One is when they acquired him from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline in 2014 and again when they traded him to Toronto in 2015.
The Tigers acquired David Price at the trade deadline in 2014 in a three-way deal that sent Austin Jackson to Seattle, and Drew Smyly along with Willy Adames to Tampa Bay. Price had one more season remaining before free agency.
Jackson was Detroit’s starting center fielder and Smyly was an effective pitcher both as a starter and reliever. Adames broke in with the Rays, but went on to become one of the premier shortstops in the major leagues. Again, look at the value at the time of the trade.
Price trade II: When things were not going as well for the Tigers in 2015, they were on track to miss the playoffs after four years as division champions and Price was set to become a free agent after the season, Detroit cashed in his chips at the trade deadline, moving him to the Toronto Blue Jays for three pitchers- Matthew Boyd, Jairo Labourt, and Daniel Norris.
Price was a pure rental at the time of the latter trade, which Skubal is this season, and it’s fair to say that the return was a very nice one for Detroit.
If Skubal and his agent are hell-bent on testing the waters of free agency, unleashing a bidding war between teams to sign him, then he would only be traded as a “rental” for the remainder of the 2026 season and the ensuing playoffs. Here are the most notable trades for free agent starting pitchers at the MLB trade deadline. Arguably none of them had as much value as a two-time defending Cy Young winner.
If you’re looking at starting pitchers who were pure rentals—acquired at the deadline with only a few months of team control remaining before free agency—the benchmark deals are these:
Traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee for Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson.
This is probably the closest comparison to what a healthy Tarik Skubal rental would bring. Sabathia was traded in July 2008, then went on one of the greatest deadline runs ever: 11-2 record, 1.65 ERA, 7 complete games in just 17 starts (that’s almost as good as Doyle Alexander!), carrying Milwaukee to its first playoff appearance since 1982.
The Brewers surrendered a package headlined by Matt LaPorta (then a top-20 prospect in baseball) and Michael Brantley, who eventually became a four-time All-Star.
Sabathia is the closest analog because he was a true ace, impending free agent, and acquired specifically to carry a contender through a pennant race—exactly how a future Skubal rental would be viewed.
Traded by Seattle to Texas for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke, Matt Lawson. All prospects.
Traded by Tampa Bay to Detroit in a three-way deal. The Rays received Austin Jackson, Drew Smyly, Willy Adames and Nick Franklin. Price actually had 1.5 seasons of control remaining, so it’s not a direct comparison, but you have to like the return!
Traded by Detroit to Toronto for Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, Jairo Labourt.
This might be the most relevant recent example of a pure rental starting pitcher traded at the deadline. At the time, Norris was considered a premium prospect, and Boyd turned into an All-Star and the Tigers’ best pitcher for a while.
Traded by Milwaukee to the Angels for Jean Segura, Johnny Hellweg, Ariel Peña
Traded by Seattle to Houston for Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillén, John Halama.
This might be the best return for a rental with the benefit of hindsight. Garcia and Guillén were multiple time All stars and Halama was a reliable starter.
Assuming he is healthy and still performing at his normal star level, as he has been since returning from surgery this season, the Tigers could expect to receive:
- One elite prospect
- One additional Top-100 type prospect
- One or two secondary pieces
We might extract from how far back we must go to find comps for trading a high-value starting pitcher at the trade deadline, and teams don’t surrender four or five premium prospects for a pure rental, no matter how good the pitcher is. The Sabathia, Price, Greinke, Lee, and Johnson deals all generally fit that pattern.
If they are looking for a player who will make an immediate impact, that may lessen the value of the prospects, since they’re trading strictly with teams who are contending.
We could get creative and start adding in other players who are due for free agency, such as Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, or Drew Anderson.
So, should the Tigers trade Skubal for a haul of prospects while they are still contending for a playoff spot, surely the fan base would be upset, but they have to understand that the club is attempting to maximize their assets in a way that will provide them with a nucleus of players that allows them to contend for years to come.
If they hang onto Skubal and make the playoffs, but he walks at the end of the season without the club getting anything for him, keeping the playoff run going could be even more challenging. If they’re going to go all in, then they’d better go ALL in and win a World Series.
