NFL’s underrated and overrated teams in 2026: NFC South could rise; Bears, Bills, Patriots tumble
It’s one of the best times of year according to the NFL calendar. In a matter of days, training camp will have opened across the league, and all 32 teams — brimming with lofty expectations — will hit the fields to lay the foundation for their upcoming campaigns.
Ten teams have new head coaches, more than half the league features new offensive coordinators and just less than half welcome defensive coordinators this offseason.
The free-agent acquisitions and draft selections have begun to settle into their new surroundings, and now they get to work.
While every player and coach aspires to contend for the Super Bowl, expectations differ depending on the team. Some highly-touted squads will live up to their potential while others will fall short. Others will exceed expectations and make life difficult for opponents.
We’re taking a look at some of the most underrated and overrated teams entering the 2026 season and how things could shake out for them.
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Robert Mays
Underrated
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are among the 10 teams that hired new head coaches this offseason, but the cupboard is far from bare. Raheem Morris led the Falcons on a four-game winning streak that helped them finish 8-9 and tie with the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers atop the NFC South, but it came after they had already been eliminated from playoff contention based on potential tiebreakers.
Arthur Blank opted for change, and Kevin Stefanski inherits a team that features plenty of talent, with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, A.J. Terrell, Jessie Bates III, James Pearce and Xavier Watts leading the way. If he can figure out the quarterback situation (Michael Penix Jr. versus Tua Tagovailoa) and keep one of those two on the field, Atlanta could challenge for the division.
Indianapolis Colts
Had Daniel Jones not ruptured his Achilles tendon in Week 14, Shane Steichen’s squad very well may have contended for the top seed in the AFC. The Colts expect Jones to open the season, and they hope he can pick up where he left off and help direct a top-10 offense that still boasts a strong line and running back Jonathan Taylor. The Colts have a tough opening schedule, but could certainly contend in the AFC South.
Cincinnati Bengals
A 31st-ranked defense that surrendered at least 30 points in seven contests and more than 45 points twice offered next to no support for an offense that endured a nine-game stretch without a healthy Joe Burrow. Now the franchise quarterback returns, and the additions of defensive tackles Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen and pass rusher Boye Mafe should help bolster Cincinnati’s defensive front.
Thanks to those moves, plus others along the defense, the Bengals just might have better depth than they did when they reached the Super Bowl during the 2021 season. The Baltimore Ravens draw much attention in the AFC North, and rightfully so, and Mike McCarthy’s reunion with Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh has the Steelers in the spotlight, but the Bengals seem primed for a bounce-back season and could cause trouble for divisional foes.
Carolina Panthers
A tiebreaker over the Buccaneers and Falcons paved the way for the Panthers’ first playoff appearance in eight years. Bryce Young’s third season saw him put up career numbers in passing yards (3,011) and touchdowns (23). The defense went from dead last to middle of the pack. Despite pushing the Los Angeles Rams in a 34-31 wild-card loss, the Panthers continue to fly under the radar.
General manager Dan Morgan was busy, making moves to upgrade both the offensive and defensive fronts, adding veteran guards in Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, and pass rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd. Carolina coach Dave Canales and his group just might make some more strides in his third season.
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New Orleans Saints
There’s not a lot of sizzle about the Saints, but rookie head coach Kellen Moore did help guide his squad forward last season, especially during a 4-0 December. They will need some players to grow into roles on defense, but on offense, if second-year quarterback Tyler Shough can build on his late-season progress and capitalize on the additions of rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson and running back Travis Etienne to a unit that already includes Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara, the Saints, who split with the Bucs and swept the Panthers last season, could make some noise in the division.
A second-year leap for Tyler Shough, Kellen Moore and the Saints seems realistic. (Steve Roberts / Imagn Images)
Overrated
Dallas Cowboys
Jerry Jones will tell you the Cowboys always have a shot at contention, and his team does generate plenty of buzz. But the Cowboys will have to jell in a hurry on defense, where new defensive coordinator Christian Parker inherits a unit that struggled mightily last season but added plenty of new faces, including veterans like pass rusher Rashan Gary, cornerback Cobie Durant, linebacker Dee Winters and rookie linebackers Malachi Lawrence and Jaishawn Barham. The offense, led by Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, should again put up points, but the much-needed defensive backing could take some time.
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Buffalo Bills
The Bills came up painfully short in their quest for a Super Bowl, and coach Sean McDermott got fired. They’re regarded as contenders largely because Josh Allen is always darting in and out of phone booths. But it’s well documented that he can’t do it alone. The Bills could experience some growing pains as Joe Brady attempts to make the big jump from offensive coordinator to head coach, and new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard tries to install a brand-new defense.
Chicago Bears
Ben Johnson ignited the Bears in his first season at the helm, and he helped Caleb Williams tap into some of the potential the franchise saw in the quarterback when selecting him No. 1 in 2024. Chicago’s defense led the NFL with 33 takeaways, and the Bears leapfrogged the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in the division and reached the divisional round of the playoffs.
Expectations have skyrocketed, but taking that next step represents a great challenge. Williams delivered late-game heroics, but he and his team can’t count on a repeat of that trend. He’ll have to improve his consistency by a significant margin, and Chicago’s defense can’t get away with such a low pressure rate and such struggles against the run. The Bears feel primed for a step backward rather than forward.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have ranked among the elite teams of the NFC for the last 10 years, making the playoffs nine times and winning the Super Bowl twice. Even with last season’s regression, they won the NFC East for the third time in four seasons.
But now they’re trying to re-tool on the fly, subtracting the disgruntled A.J. Brown and drafting Makai Lemon, rolling with their fourth offensive coordinator in as many years (rookie play caller Sean Mannion), and adding veterans Jonathan Greenard and Riq Woolen on defense while losing standouts Nakobe Dean and Reed Blankenship. The health of the offensive line is a concern, as is a tough late-season stretch. Although viewed as a bar-setter, the Eagles could hit a few snags this season.
New England Patriots
The Patriots certainly exceeded expectations in 2025, overtaking Buffalo for the division and reaching the Super Bowl, where they lost to the Seattle Seahawks. Mike Vrabel and his players badly want to resolve unfinished business in 2026, but doing so could prove challenging.
New England will not have the luxury of sneaking up on teams this season. The Patriots also have a grueling start, with three road games in their first four weeks and two back-to-back road trips in their first 10 weeks. The Patriots landed A.J. Brown in hopes that he can help elevate Drake Maye, but chemistry could take some time. New England also still seems to lack a game-changing pass rush, which needs to change for their defense to take another step forward.
