Updated:
Jul 21, 2026 , 02:12 PM ET
• 4 min read
The best MLB player props, strongest edges, and favorite bets are here. Let’s cash some tickets.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Miami Marlins right fielder Griffin Conine (18) hits a home run.
Let’s dive into my favorite MLB player props, best bets, and MLB picks to attack on July 21.
Best MLB player props today
Player
Pick
Odds
Elly De La Cruz
Over 1.5 H/R/R
-117
Matt Olson
Over 1.5 total bases
+116
Griffin Conine
Over 1.5 H/R/R
+117
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Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-117)
Cincinnati Reds superstar Elly De La Cruz enters Tuesday’s matchup against Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo with an elite rating on Batters-Box, while carrying 100% arsenal coverage against Castillo’s entire pitch mix.
In 144 elite-rated games dating back over the last three seasons, De La Cruz has gone over this prop 55% of the time.
Across his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, he owns a .370 batting average, .667 slugging percentage, 1.100 OPS, and .297 ISO, while generating a 60.9% hard hit rate and 8.7% barrel rate.
On the other side, Castillo has struggled against left-handed hitters lately. Over his last 30 left-handed hitters faced, they have produced a 50% hard hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, and 58% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .344 expected batting average and .645 expected slugging percentage.
I would play this down to -125 if I had to, or take his bases for plus money.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Mainers.TV
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases (+116)
The pride of the Braves, Mr. Matt Olson, finds himself in a boom spot at the dish this evening against Padres right-hander Walker Buehler.
Olson enters Tuesday with one of the highest ratings on the slate over on Batters-Box, where he also carries an 83.5% arsenal coverage against Buehler’s entire pitch mix.
So far this season, in 17 elite ratings, Olson has gone over this prop 47% of the time, while leaving the yard nearly 30% of the time as well.
Across his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, he is generating nearly 53% hard hit and a 20% barrel rate. On top of that, he owns a 1.014 OPS and .392 ISO.
On the other side, Buehler has been getting crushed by left-handed hitters. Over his last 30 left-handed hitters faced, they have produced a 50% hard hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and 60% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .527 xSLG and .263 xBA.
I would not pay juice for this prop, so look for the best price possible.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, SPA
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+117)
Mr. Marlin’s son, Griffin Conine, finds himself in a strong spot this evening against Astros starter Tatsuya Imai, who owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate over on Batters-Box.
Imai has been getting lit up by left-handed hitters, allowing a 55% hard hit rate, 20% barrel rate, and 70% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .446 xBA, .457 xSLG, and .498 xwOBA.
Conine has been on a tear over his last few games. In his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, he owns a .310 BA, .759 SLG, 1.092 OPS, and .449 ISO, while generating a 50% hard hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.
Conine also enters today with an elite rating while covering nearly 100% of Imai’s pitch mix. Getting an elite-rated hitter to surpass 1.5 HRR at plus money is always a steal. Do not pay juice for this one.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, MIAM
Colby Marchio’s 2026 Transparency Record
- Prop picks: 321-594, -1.00 Units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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