Updated:
Jul 26, 2026 , 08:09 AM ET
• 4 min read
Cubs complete sweep of the Pirates!
EXPERT PICK – TOTAL
CHC @ PIT o8.5 (-116)
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Photo By – Reuters Connect. Jameson Taillon of the Chicago Cubs MLB
The underdog Chicago Cubs (+113) can earn a series victory when they face the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 3 of their three-game series at PNC Park.
Braxton Ashcroft’s underlying metrics are shaky, and my Cubs vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks expect a Cubs sweep today,
Who will win Cubs vs Pirates today: Cubs moneyline (+114)
The markets are pricing this game off Jameson Taillon’s 5.41 xERA and 1st-percentile barrel rate, but three factors point the other way.
Braxton Ashcraft relies on chase (37.2%, 96th percentile), yet he draws a Chicago Cubs lineup that rarely expands the zone and owns an 11% walk rate the past two weeks.
Taillon’s fly-ball profile is better protected at PNC Park, especially with Pete Crow-Armstrong’s +20 Outs Above Average patrolling center, while the Pittsburgh Pirates corner outfield defense sits at a combined -8 OAA.
Add in a Pirates lineup that chases enough to feed Taillon’s sweeper, and I play the Cubs to -105 today.
COVERS INTEL: Ashcraft’s four-seam fastball is his most-used pitch at 31.9 percent, and it’s been hit for a .290 average, .519 slugging, and a .330 xwOBA with a negative run value.
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Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-116)
It will be warm and dry for the first pitch, and both starters are hittable. Taillon carries a 14.4% barrel rate with 22 home runs in 72 innings and rarely sees the sixth inning.
Ashcraft has served up eight home runs in his last five starts and allows a 90.5 mph average exit velocity and meets a Cubs lineup walking 12.4 percent over the past two weeks.
That puts this in the bullpen’s hands early, and Pittsburgh’s relievers have walked 10.4% over the same stretch after emptying out Saturday night.
Scoring runs is what these teams do when they meet, as the Over is 7-3 in their last 10 games. I’d play this to -130.
Phil Naessens’ 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 9-12, -1.01 units
- Over/Under bets: 9-10, -2.45 units
Cubs vs Pirates weather
Warm and dry with light winds blowing out to right field.
Cubs vs Pirates odds
- Moneyline: Cubs +108 | Pirates -117
- Run line: Cubs +1.5 (-186) | Pirates -1.5 (+163)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (+104)
Cubs vs Pirates trend
The Over is 7-3 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates.
How to watch Cubs vs Pirates and game info
Location
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Sunday, July 26, 2026
First pitch
1:35 p.m. ET
TV
MARQ, SNP
Cubs starting pitcher
Jameson Taillon
(2-5, 5.38 ERA)
Pirates starting pitcher
Braxton Ashcraft
(9-4, 3.95 ERA)
Cubs vs Pirates latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast.
Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports.
His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.
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