Todd Cordell
• Betting Analyst
12+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 27, 2026 , 10:30 AM ET
• 4 min read
Atlanta Braves bring regression to Zac Thornton on Monday night.
EXPERT PICK – MONEYLINE
Atlanta -120
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Photo By – Reuters Connect. Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) celebrates with third baseman Austin Riley (27) after a home run
The Atlanta Braves have won six of their last eight games and are -120 favorites to claim the series opener in Flushing against the New York Mets.
With Zac Thornton a prime candidate to take a step back, my Braves vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the road team.
Who will win Braves vs Mets today: Braves (-120)
Zac Thornton continues to scream regression.
The New York Mets southpaw owns a mediocre 19.5 K%, a concerning 12.3% barrel rate, and a 4.23 xERA. Despite all the red flags, his ERA is 1.93, and he has held opponents to a .173 average, nearly 80 points below his .251 xBA.
The Atlanta Braves have shown an uptick in production vs. lefties over the past couple of weeks, slotting 14th in wOBA and seventh in ISO.
Their improvements should show up against Thornton, who owned a 1.38 WHIP in Triple-A before being recalled.
Back Atlanta to -130.
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Braves vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
There is a nice recipe for offense in this game.
Thornton allowed 1.7 homers per nine innings in Triple-A this season. He has limited homers in the MLB thus far, but that won’t last, especially against a Braves team sitting fourth in homers on the year.
Meanwhile, the Mets rank 11th in wOBA and 13th in OPS during July. Their offense has been much better, and should pester Martin Perez, against whom they scored four runs in 4 1/3 innings a few weeks ago.
Bet to -120.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 63-55, -4.15 units
- Over/Under bets: 64-49-5, +6.79 units
Braves vs Mets weather
The forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s, with double-digit-mile-per-hour winds blowing out. Boost to the bats.
Braves vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Braves -120 | Mets +100
- Run line: Braves -1.5 (+140) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Braves vs Mets trend
New York has hit the Game Total Over in 20 of the last 35 games at home (+7.85 units, 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.
How to watch Braves vs Mets and game info
Location
Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Date
Monday, July 27, 2026
First pitch
7:10 p.m. ET
TV
BravesVision, SNY
Braves starting pitcher
Martin Perez
(6-6, 3.38 ERA)
Mets starting pitcher
Zac Thornton
(1-1, 1.93 ERA)
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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