Updated:
Jul 31, 2026 , 12:22 PM ET
• 4 min read
For Friday afternoon’s matchup at Wrigley Field, our premier MLB expert pick zeroes in on a plus-money Yankees angle, leaning on New York’s league-leading barrel rate to exploit Shota Imanaga’s vulnerability to hard contact.
EXPERT PICK – MONEYLINE
NY Yankees +124
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Photo By – Reuters Connect. New York Yankees pitcher Will Warren (29) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.
Despite the Cubs laying juice at home, backing New York at plus-money offers the top edge on Friday’s slate.
Shota Imanaga’s biggest contact vulnerability matches up poorly against the Yankees’ power profile, and with Will Warren introducing plenty of risk for New York, the game total points strongly toward the Over.
Here are my Yankees vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for July 31.
Who will win Yankees vs Cubs today: Yankees moneyline (+124)
For a second straight start, I find myself in the position of backing New York Yankees arm Will Warren. And, for the second straight start, it’s not because of him but his opponent.
This is a decent misprice, and I’d play the Yankees down to +100 for two units.
Chicago Cubs hurler Shota Imanaga’s barrel profile is a real concern against this lineup. He has allowed a 9.4% barrel rate, which sits in the bottom quarter of MLB, while the Bronx Bombers own a 9.6% team barrel rate, the best mark in baseball.
That’s the biggest advantage for either team in this matchup.
COVERS INTEL: Shota Imanaga’s four-seamer is the pitch New York can attack. He throws it 41.1% of the time, and it has allowed a .483 SLG with a 44.3% hard-hit rate.
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Yankees vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+109)
I’m playing the Over because both sides have a scoring path tied to the starters. New York’s case is obvious, and we’ve already talked about it.
The Cubs can contribute against Will Warren, too. He owns a 4.59 xERA with a 41.0% hard-hit rate. The Cubs aren’t a crazy explosive group, but a .340 OBP along with a solid walk rate can create the traffic Warren has struggled to navigate.
I’d play this to -105.
Chris Hatfield’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 41-36, +7.10 units
- Over/Under bets: 45-34, +13.01 units
Yankees vs Cubs weather
Yankees vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: New York +124 | Chicago -136
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Cubs trend
Over is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 interleague starts.
How to watch Yankees vs Cubs and game info
Location
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Ill.
Date
Friday, July 31, 2026
First pitch
2:20 p.m. ET
TV
YES, Marquee
Yankees starting pitcher
Will Warren
(7-5, 4.41 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher
Shota Imanaga
(7-8, 3.72 ERA)
Yankees vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Chris has always had a passion for three things: solving problems, sports, and writing. It’s no wonder then that he found himself attracted to the sports betting industry. You can find Chris betting every day. Whether it’s shot prop markets in Champions League Soccer qualifiers or NBA Summer League, he has no offseason. As an EV+ bettor, he especially values the insight gained through a data-driven approach.
His work has been featured on various websites such as SBNation, Rivals, Bleacher Report, and 247Sports. He has appeared on radio outlets such as ESPN 680 and The Sharp 600 podcast. You can listen to his own podcast, “What High School Did You Go To?” on Apple Podcast and Soundcloud.
Chris has carved out a niche as a college basketball originator with massive profitability success in that sport and stresses one piece of advice to sports bettors: exploit edges as broadly as possible and take advantage of them while they last. His preferred sportsbook is bet365 because of the range of markets you can find.
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