Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s full slate: Daulton Varsho, Jose Ramirez and Jac Caglianone.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
Best MLB Home Run Bets TodayOddsWhy I Like the PickDaulton Varsho+524Varsho hasn’t hit a home run since June 23. However, Varsho hit 20 long balls and posted a .310 ISO in just 271 plate appearances in 2025. The power is in there somewhere. This is also an amazing matchup against Kyle Leahy, as the RHP owns first percentile marks in opponent average exit velocity (91.7) and opponent hard hit rate (50.0%).Jose Ramirez+377Mitch Bratt has made four starts for Arizona, and in those starts, he’s pitched to a 6.32 ERA. Bratt’s also been absolutely destroyed by opposing LHBs. In fact, lefties are slashing .364/.391/.818 with a .503 wOBA. This all lines up for Ramirez to hit his first home run since coming off the IL earlier this month.Jac Caglianone+301Tomoyuki Sugano has a second percentile strikeout rate (13.8%) combined with a second percentile opponent barrel rate (14.2%). He’s given up 2.61 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs. You could not draw up a more perfect matchup for Caglianone, who owns a 98th percentile hard hit rate (55.2%), but generally has contact issues. That shouldn’t be an issue on Friday.
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Daulton Varsho 1+ Home Run (+524)
Picking any Blue Jays player hit a home run that isn’t named Kazuma Okamoto (+370) seems like a fool’s errand, especially Varsho, who has not gone deep in a game since all the way back on June 23. That said, Varsho hit 20 long balls and posted a .310 ISO in just 271 plate appearances in 2025. The power is in there somewhere. This is also an amazing matchup against Kyle Leahy. The Cardinals’ RHP has somehow maintained a 3.55 ERA this season, despite possessing first percentile marks in opponent average exit velocity (91.7) and opponent hard hit rate (50.0%). Leahy’s had his issues with LHBs, too, as those within the split have combined for a .382 wOBA. If any pitcher was going to help Varsho out of this slump, it’s Leahy.
Jose Ramirez 1+ Home Run (+377)
The Mitch Bratt experience hasn’t been going all that well for the Diamondbacks. The rookie has made four starts for Arizona, and in those starts, he’s pitched to a 6.32 ERA and he’s walked more batters (11) than he’s struck out (10). Obviously it’s a small sample, but Bratt’s also been absolutely destroyed by opposing LHBs. In fact, lefties are slashing .364/.391/.818 with a .503 wOBA. Yikes. That leads us to the switch-hitting Jose Ramirez. While Ramirez does not have an extra-base hit since returning from the IL, the future Hall of Fame third baseman did hit 158 home runs from 2021 to 2025 — the 10th-most of any player in that span of time. I’m not worried about his ability to take advantage of a great matchup.
Jac Caglianone 1+ Home Run (+301)
There’s no point trying to make sense of Tomoyuki Sugano’s stats in 2026. The man is 10-4 with a 7.22 xERA. He’s given up more home runs away from Coors Field than at it. It’s all nonsense. So allow me to simplify things. Sugano is bad. That’s what a second percentile strikeout rate (13.8%) combined with a second percentile opponent barrel rate (14.2%) means. Sugano also can not consistently retire left-handed batters, as they’ve slashed .278/.336/.593 off the 36-year-old with 2.61 home runs per nine. Meanwhile, this is a perfect matchup for Caglianone, who owns a 98th percentile hard hit rate (55.2%), but a 14th percentile strikeout rate of his own (27.9%). Sugano doesn’t miss bats. At all. That means guaranteed batted ball events for Caglianone and his 80 grade raw power in the altitude. His legitimately might hit one 500 feet.
