Friday’s 8-7 loss at Cincinnati was typical for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their relief pitching collapsed. They fielded like a bad T-ball team.
But that night’s hole got dug by Paul Skenes, who is anything but an ace.
That, too, has become typical.
The citizens bleat about the bullpen being rotten, and it is.
It’s especially galling that Dennis Santana went from decent closer to DFA’d, and that Gregory Soto was horrific in June.
But the bullpen wasn’t supposed to be great.
Manager Don Kelly is a popular scapegoat.
But Kelly is shackled by the organizationally imposed twin fascisms of analytics and pitch count. Protecting arms trumps winning.
The Pirates are too often sloppy and uninspired. That reflects on Kelly. He’s not exactly Danny Murtaugh.
But more than the bullpen, more than Kelly, more than anything or anyone else, the Pirates’ season has been sabotaged by Skenes. He’s the main reason the Pirates look unlikely to make the playoffs.
His velocity has dropped. His ERA has ballooned to 3.90. He looks out of shape and sync.
Skenes hasn’t yet caught much shrapnel. He’s arguably the most popular Pirate. Fans don’t want to betray their merch.
But that worm might be turning.
Dan Zangrilli works for the Pirates. Among other duties, he hosts their postgame radio show.
Here’s what Zangrilli said after Friday’s defeat, which saw Skenes allow seven hits, four walks and five earned runs in four innings:
“The ace didn’t ace. Far more questions than answers. For any of this to work, he has to. He looks like an out-of-shape, lumbering yeti sucking wind on a hot day.
“He looks out of shape. He looks fatigued. He’s lumbering. He’s overheating. Like a St. Bernard out there, marching around the mound.”
Yikes.
It’s compelling radio.
But you know things are bad when a shill turns heel. (The best heels use truth as a bludgeon.)
If Skenes pressed the issue, he could get Zangrilli fired.
Just like Skenes reportedly got pitching coach Oscar Marin fired after last season.
The Pirates sacked Marin after Skenes won the Cy Young Award. After the Pirates posted MLB’s fourth-best WHIP (1.22) and seventh-best ERA (3.76). Turns out Marin was more solution than problem.
Skenes is so bad that many are assuming arm problems, not least because of the drop in velocity.
Skenes has thrown just 95 pitches at 98 mph or better this season.
He threw 863 of those last year.
But if his arm was bothering him, the Pirates would shut down Skenes at the behest of his agent. (But don’t be surprised if “he pitched through it” is an excuse at season’s end. And a lie. Skenes just wouldn’t do that, or be asked to do that.)
I don’t care why Skenes has lost his velocity.
I don’t care what excuses are made on his behalf.
Skenes is pitching like a bum, and he’s killing the Pirates. That’s all that matters.
His aura has disappeared. The fear factor. Perhaps permanently. The fastball might be gone permanently, too.
Before the season, I reckoned that Skenes would start 33 games. To make the playoffs, the Pirates would need to win 25 of those.
The Pirates are 9-14 in games started by Skenes.
By my formula, they should be 17-6.
Those eight additional wins would have the Pirates in the National League’s top wild-card spot, 5½ games safe.
The numbers don’t lie.
The bullpen isn’t supposed to be among MLB’s elite.
Kelly isn’t supposed to be MLB’s top manager.
Skenes is supposed to be MLB’s best pitcher.
But he’s nowhere close.
Skenes should be embarrassed.
Blame Skenes. If the Pirates miss the playoffs, it’s on him.
Zangrilli nailed it: “The ace didn’t ace. For any of this to work, he has to.”
