CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on Tuesday detailed what he said appears to be a complete collapse in support for Donald Trump among moderate Republicans.
He also busted the president’s overly rosy spin on his current poor polling numbers.
“In a word, yikes. Yikes is the word,” Enten said of a recent CNN/SSRS poll that showed support for Trump among moderate Republicans, who make up 30% to 40% of the party, had gone from +69 percentage points versus then-Democratic rival Kamala Harris in 2024 to +10 points for his net approval rating now.
“Moderate Republicans abandoning Donald John Trump,” said Enten, calling it “a big uh-oh.”
In a word, “yikes”: Trump’s moderate GOP support is collapsing.
He led them by 69 pt vs Harris in 2024. His net approval now is +10 pt. A 59 pt shift.
He was more trusted vs Harris on the economy by 80 pt. Net approval now? +3 pt. A 77 pt shift!
On inflation, he’s at -17 pt! pic.twitter.com/XT6Ihz1iDP
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 4, 2026
The economy is the main reason, he said, noting that, among moderate Republicans, Trump was in 2024 polling at +80 points compared with Harris but is now just +3 points in net approval on the “key issue that got him elected.”
On Iran, Enten said, Trump’s net approval is at -6 points among that group and on inflation it’s at -17 points.
“If I’m a Republican running for Congress in those swing districts, I need those moderate Republicans, and they are leaving Donald Trump,” Enten said. “They may be leaving those Republican candidates as well.”
In another segment, Enten busted Trump’s claim that his poor polling numbers are fake news and that he’s actually doing really well.
If Trump thinks “his own polls are good, he is, simply put, not on planet Earth, he is on some planet far, far, far away, in a galaxy far, far, far away,”
Trump’s not on planet Earth if he thinks the real polls show him in a good position.
It’s the worst position he’s been in term 2 (-21 pts net approval) & on a steady slide down.
He’s the Cal Ripken of negative net approvals (494 days in a row where all polls have him negative) pic.twitter.com/Arvomd6TdJ
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 4, 2026
Enten brought up a chart showing Trump’s gradual decline in net approval ratings overall, from an aggregate of polls, which he said was “like a slide going into the sea.”
It showed Trump in January 2025 at +6, but now at -21.
“This is the lowest he has been in term number two,” said Enten, calling it “record lows for himself.”
“In term number two, he is very much underwater despite whatever he is claiming up in his head of his,” he added, noting how, in the 494 days since March 29, 2025, Trump has “had a negative net approval rating” in all polls CNN has covered.
