Coach Pete Carroll was supposed to raise the floor for the Las Vegas Raiders. Instead, they’ve fallen through it, plummeting to new lows, losing 40-6 to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5.
A coach whose career peaked by holding Peyton Manning’s historic 2013 Denver Broncos offense to one scoring drive in the Super Bowl watched helplessly Sunday as Indy outscored his current team 40-0 over the second and third quarters alone.
That’s miserable, but would you rather be the 0-5 New York Jets, the only winless team in the league? How about the 1-4 New York Giants, who did the impossible Sunday, losing by two scores to the previously winless New Orleans Saints? Any takers for the Miami Dolphins or Cleveland Browns?
The Pick Six column puts those teams and a few others, including the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, on the Misery Meter after five weeks. Each fits neatly into a specific category, some more miserable than others. For these teams, as well as for a few (Tennessee, Carolina, New Orleans) that were miserable before beating other miserable teams Sunday, it’s time to talk.
The full Pick Six menu this week:
• Misery Meter: In search of hope
• Wild Darnold-Mayfield shootout
• Putting Eagles in perspective
• Colts through five glorious games
• Upon further review: Liam Coen
• Two-minute drill: HOF debate
1. The Raiders, Jets, Giants, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Panthers, Titans and Saints have a combined 11-39 record, with five of those victories against each other. Here’s where they land on the Misery Meter.
New coaches, same old stories
• Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)
6.5 Vegas win total | 1-4 vs. spread
Carroll is a proven elite program builder, but it took three seasons and a couple of historically great draft classes — Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in one, Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner in another — for him to post a winning record in Seattle. It was a full organizational mindset adjustment. It took time.
Carroll needed time at USC as well. He started 1-4 there before finishing that 2001 season 6-6. He’s 74 now and wielding less organizational control over the Raiders than he wielded in Seattle or at USC.
The Raiders have already lost twice by at least 17 points. Carroll’s first Seattle team went 7-9, with all nine losses by at least 11 points. How patient will ownership be if Carroll needs a couple of seasons to win, and the team loses more games like the one it lost Sunday?
“I’m processing it poorly, to tell you the truth,” Carroll said. “Because I did expect to win right out of the chute.”
• New York Jets (0-5)
6.5 Vegas win total | 2-3 vs. spread
The Jets, like the Raiders, can’t stop anyone after hiring a defensive-minded head coach. They’re a little tougher to figure out, though, because they’ve lost three close games while facing Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott. So, while it’s true the Jets’ defense hasn’t been worse through five games from an EPA standpoint since 2007, the schedule matters.
“What I think is so interesting is the two guys that want to run the defensive programs and get the veteran quarterbacks to run the ball and play defense can’t run the ball and can’t play defense,” an exec from another team said, referring to the Raiders and Jets.
Same coaches, same old stories
• New York Giants (1-4)
5.5 Vegas win total | 2-3 vs. spread
The Giants are a league-worst 2-15 in their past 17 games with bottom-five rankings on both sides of the ball over that span. They’re without Malik Nabers, their best offensive player, and their rookie quarterback, Jaxson Dart, accounted for two interceptions and an unforced fumble during a streak of five consecutive possessions ending in turnovers against the Saints.
“Five in a row — it’s tough to do,” coach Brian Daboll said.
It hadn’t happened in the NFL since 2016, when Ryan Fitzpatrick had six interceptions for the Jets at Kansas City. It hadn’t happened before that since 2010.
• Miami Dolphins (1-4)
7.5 Vegas win total | 2-3 vs. spread
The potentially career-threatening injury Tyreek Hill suffered last week drove home the idea that the Dolphins’ contending window closed last season. Miami seemed to know it already, cutting age and salary from the defense in the offseason.
Blowing a 17-0 lead to lose at Carolina, which had lost 38 consecutive games when trailing by at least that many, affirmed once again that Miami can no longer trust a defense that has fallen from seventh in EPA per play last season to 31st now, ahead of only Dallas.
• Cleveland Browns (1-4)
5.5 Vegas win total | 2-3 vs. spread
Rookie third-round quarterback Dillon Gabriel made his NFL debut Sunday.
The result: a 12th consecutive Browns game when the offense finished with negative EPA. That streak is twice as long as any other active one (Tennessee is next with six in a row) and one reason Cleveland fell 21-17 to Minnesota in London.
The Browns rank first on defense and last on offense by EPA per play since hiring Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator in 2023.
Even the Browns’ defense let down Sunday, but for the 33rd time in 39 games with Schwartz, the Browns produced more EPA on defense than they did in the other two phases of the game combined. That’s 85 percent of the time, the highest rate for any defensive coordinator with any team since at least 2000 (minimum 32 games).
No defense, no Tier 1 QB to compensate
• Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)
9.5 Vegas win total | 1-4 vs. spread
No Joe Burrow, no chance for the Bengals, who have lost their last three games by a combined 76 points.
Cincinnati has lost by at least 13 points in three consecutive games within a season for the first time since 2002. The Bengals lost four in a row by that much back then, earning the No. 1 pick in the 2003 draft, which was used on Carson Palmer.
Burrow’s toe surgery could keep him out until December. Draft positioning could be the only thing on the line for the Bengals by then. Think the team could use a top-10 pick for an offensive tackle?
• Baltimore Ravens (1-4)
11.5 Vegas win total | 1-4 vs. spread
The legendary 2000 Ravens defense allowed 209 yards rushing and 2.0 per carry during its first five games.
The current Ravens have allowed 732 and 4.7 through five.
With quarterback Lamar Jackson and a range of key defenders sidelined, the Ravens’ usual formula — put points on the board, play the run tough and force teams to pass — is no longer available to them.
The hope was that organizational culture might prevent losses like the 44-10 home beatdown Baltimore suffered against Houston on Sunday, but playing without your six highest earners is tough, especially when one is a two-time MVP quarterback. That’s $161.1 million in combined annual average salary relegated to the training room! The Ravens got a league-high 293 defensive snaps from rookies in Week 5. Houston was the only team with zero. That showed.
One-week exemptions
• Carolina Panthers (2-3)
6.5 Vegas win total | 3-2 vs. spread
Carolina and Arizona are the only teams to play all five games against opponents that missed the playoffs last season. The Panthers started 0-2 against Jacksonville and Arizona, then won 30-0 over Atlanta, then fell 42-13 at New England, then came back from down 17-0 to beat Miami 27-24.
Would anyone blink if Dallas put up 45 points on them in Week 6?
• Tennessee Titans (1-4)
6.5 Vegas win total | 2-3 vs. spread
We are dropping in video highlights from the Titans’ 22-21 victory over Arizona to convince ourselves Tennessee really did turn a Cam Ward interception into a Tyler Lockett touchdown that wiped out most of a nine-point deficit in the final five minutes.
Not on the video: Arizona’s Emari Demercado racing approximately 71.99999 yards before flipping the ball forward through the end zone, turning a would-be 72-yard Cardinals touchdown into a touchback. How many times must NFL players see this happen around the league before they stop doing it?
He let the ball go too early! Touchback! 😮
TENvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/ZHxNItODj2
— NFL (@NFL) October 5, 2025
The Titans had lost 10 in a row before this most improbable sequence of events catapulted them to the first victory of the Ward era. They get to play the Raiders next week, which means Tennessee could win back-to-back games in a season for the first time since 2022, when Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry were on the team.
One-season exemption
• New Orleans Saints
4.5 Vegas win total | 2-3 vs. spread
The Saints have a first-year coach. They rank last in cash spending. Unlike the Giants, they have yet to start their drafted rookie quarterback. In other words, this season is going about how one might have expected it to go, so the misery is relative.
On deck
• Arizona Cardinals
8.5 Vegas win total | 2-3 vs. spread
The Cardinals have lost three in a row by a combined five points (and nearly blew a 24-point, second-half lead the week before that). They were tied or leading with five seconds remaining in each of those losses. That is misery defined for a team desperate to show progress under a third-year coach, with Indianapolis and Green Bay next on the schedule.
2. The Buccaneers’ 38-35 victory at Seattle told us what we already knew about Tampa Bay. Here’s what we learned about Seattle.
Sam Darnold, meet Tony Romo from Week 5, 2013.
Fans of the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys won’t forget the epic 2013 game between the teams, a shootout Romo’s Cowboys lost 51-48 despite Romo passing for 506 yards with five touchdowns and one interception. The one interception, with 2:04 remaining in a tie game, enabled Peyton Manning’s drive to the winning field goal. It also helped solidify Romo’s reputation for risking the football in key moments, before people realized what Romo was up against in Dallas.
Darnold performed similarly for Seattle in that 38-35 defeat to Tampa Bay on Sunday. He completed 28 of 34 passes for 341 yards with four touchdowns, no sacks, an incredible escape on fourth-and-2 and, alas, a late deflected interception in a tie game. Tampa Bay then drove to kick the decisive field goal as time expired.
Quarterbacks have a combined 45-2 record since 2000 in games when they averaged at least 0.7 EPA per pass play on at least 30 pass attempts. Darnold and Romo own the only defeats. Drew Brees (7-0), Tom Brady (5-0) and Manning (4-0) account for 36 percent of the victories.
After a slow start against Tampa, Darnold led five consecutive touchdown drives against the Bucs, a feat Seattle had managed just once previously this century, against Detroit in 2022.
Everything a veteran coach said last week about Darnold exhibiting Tier 1 characteristics in Seattle’s first four games played out against the Buccaneers.
It wasn’t enough because Mayfield and a rash of injuries reduced Seattle’s previously high-ranking defense to embers. Fifth-string corner Nehemiah Pritchett gave up two touchdowns, backup safety Ty Okada struggled and the pass rush suffered without Derick Hall and DeMarcus Lawrence.
The assumption here is that Mike Macdonald will have that side of the ball again functioning as a top-10 unit once the personnel is restored. The short-term problem for Macdonald is that star corner Devon Witherspoon and others could remain sidelined, including against Jacksonville next week. That could be a tricky matchup for the Seahawks, given the close ties between Tampa and Jaguars coach Liam Coen, the Buccaneers’ former offensive coordinator.
But there’s little doubt, bigger picture, that Macdonald will field a credible defense.
The big revelation for Seattle is that its offense, after struggling against San Francisco in Week 1, appears far ahead of where anyone reasonably could have expected it to be with a new coordinator (Klint Kubiak), new quarterback (Darnold) and an overhauled receiving group. Since Week 2, Seattle ranks fourth in offensive points per game (29.8), fourth in EPA per play (+0.14), first in yards per play (6.6), third in offensive touchdowns (14) and first in yards per pass attempt (9.7).
3. The Eagles’ offensive issues finally cost them a game in a 21-17 home defeat to the Denver Broncos. What’s the deal?
No one can accuse the Eagles of leaning too hard on their ground game in Philly’s first defeat of the season. Their nine designed rushes were the second-fewest in 80 total games with Jalen Hurts in the lineup at quarterback. It was half their previous low total since signing Saquon Barkley.
Who are these Eagles, anyway? They are still a work in progress, for sure, and if their offensive line remains diminished all season, all bets are off.
Last season revealed how effective the Eagles’ offense can be when everything is working: healthy offensive line, elite running back, dual-threat quarterback, dangerous wide receivers, solid tight end.
It all fit together so nicely, albeit after an underwhelming start.
What does the offense look like when the line is not quite the same? Can the new first-time offensive coordinator, Kevin Patullo, add value? Can Hurts pick up the slack when the ground game falters? Can the superstar running back, Barkley, trust his blocks instead of hunting for openings on his own?
The Eagles are finding out.
They are averaging 262 yards per game, down from 367 at this point last season. They have scored touchdowns on 12 of 13 possessions in the red zone, including all 11 before Sunday. But Hurts is averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt, down from 7.6 at this point last season.
Barkley is averaging 53.4 yards rushing per game and 3.2 yards per carry, down from 96.5 and 5.3 through Week 5 a year ago. And the Eagles’ highly paid wideouts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, are averaging less than 11 yards per reception. Brown is averaging 38.8 yards per game, same as Saints running back Alvin Kamara averaged last season.
It was strange to see the Eagles executing only nine designed rushes in a game they led by an average of 4.7 points on a per-play basis. Had they grown sensitive to criticism after Hurts went 0-for-8 passing in the second half a week ago?
Coach Nick Sirianni noted the team was behind the sticks too frequently. Philadelphia passed nine times on 10 second-down plays when needing at least 10 yards for a first down, higher than its 61 percent pass rate in those situations last season. It passed six times on 10 plays when facing second-and-7 or shorter. Those plays produced gains of 47, 11, 11 and 8 yards.
On the bright side for Philly, the Eagles are averaging more offensive points per game (22.4), more offensive touchdowns per game (2.8) and have a better record (4-1) than through five games during the 2024 championship season. There’s plenty of time for this offense to hit its stride. With games against the Giants (road), Vikings (road) and Giants (home) before a Week 9 bye, this team easily could have a 7-1 or 6-2 record at the break.
Which might not change some of the underlying issues.
Left tackle Jordan Mailata revealed that his body felt the strain of a long and highly productive 2024 season. Right tackle Lane Johnson has missed 71 snaps while battling stinger injuries. Guard Landon Dickerson battled through an injury suffered in training camp but played only 12 snaps against the Broncos.
The Eagles have almost always been able to lean on an elite line. Everything changes if that is not the case again this season.
4. These are not the Peyton Manning Colts, but you’d never know it from the efficiency. Can only the schedule slow this team?
The Colts have fielded sensational teams, particularly on offense, this century.
No one thought the 2025 squad would compare to any of them.
The chart below contextualizes the Colts’ start on offense and defense, relative to the first five games of every other Indy season since 2000. This team is hanging tough.
A team that ranked 21st on offense and 16th on defense in EPA per play last season ranks first (offense) and 11th (defense) through five weeks. The defense should not be overlooked in the Colts’ winning equation. Lou Anarumo’s hiring as coordinator, paired with a personnel overhaul in the secondary, would be getting more credit if the offense weren’t dominating to such an extent.
After Indianapolis scored touchdowns on six consecutive drives against the Raiders on Sunday, a first for the franchise since 2001, it’s clear these Colts are good enough to dominate lesser teams while competing with solid ones.
Facing Miami, Tennessee and Las Vegas has helped (Arizona is next). The back half of the schedule features Kansas City, Houston (twice), Seattle, San Francisco and Jacksonville (twice).
The Colts’ only loss so far, 27-20 against the Rams last week, pivoted on a fluky fumble receiver Adonai Mitchell lost without being touched as he neared the goal line on what should have been a 76-yard touchdown. That outcome offset a somewhat fortunate 29-28 victory over Denver.
The Colts’ 2004 offense ranks second to the 2007 Patriots since 2000 in total offensive EPA, per TruMedia. But the 2025 Colts are scoring more points per game on offense (31.2) than the famed 2004 offense did (30.4).
It’s one of the remarkable stories of this young season, considering quarterback Daniel Jones signed for $14 million per year, which ranks 21st among QBs (Justin Fields is 20th with a $20 million average). The Colts made Jones compete with Anthony Richardson for the starting job. Now, Jones is leading all passer rating qualified QBs in EPA per play, just ahead of Jared Goff, Darnold, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
5. Upon further review, Jaguars coach Liam Coen’s verbal assault on 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh was a refreshing throwback.
“Keep my name out of your mouth!” Coen shouted at Saleh after the Jaguars’ Week 4 victory over Saleh’s 49ers.
Coen, incensed by Saleh’s pregame suggestion that the Jaguars are especially skilled in the dark arts of signal stealing, let Saleh have it. Afterward, I quoted a veteran coach who thought Coen, as a first-year head coach, would be better off trying to get through the season with fewer controversies, not more of them.
But as the week went on, I reflected on just how much fun the cantankerous coaches of yesteryear could be, led by the elder Jim Mora, whose public commentaries from the 1980s and 1990s remain go-to viewing material.
Just a routine post-practice interview from the 90s that I probably watch twice a year pic.twitter.com/bHbJMO2FXh
— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) October 1, 2025
Many years ago, teams held divisional offseason get-togethers featuring head coaches, general managers, public relations directors and reporters. The AFC Central canceled its meetings because coaches Jerry Glanville (Houston Oilers), Sam Wyche (Cincinnati Bengals), Chuck Noll (Pittsburgh Steelers) and Marty Schottenheimer (Cleveland Browns) might have strangled one another (and especially Glanville, whom all the other coaches detested, especially Wyche).
Those were the days!
“I was always envious of those meetings because they created so much news,” Kevin Byrne, the Browns’ PR director in those days, said during a 2020 interview. “They would get all these guys together, and they seemed to be having fun in the AFC West, but we were not in our division.”
Byrne recounted a classic Glanville story.
“Jerry came to Cleveland, and we were good, and he would come in what I would describe as a Wyatt Earp, Wild Bill Hickok, Doc Holliday type leather jacket that was full length, and it had many layers to it,” Byrne said.
Glanville would incite the Dawg Pound during warmups, then make a big deal of it during press conferences, inviting fans to come early so they could throw dog bones at him.
“He said, ‘I can’t wait to get to that worse-than-high-school locker room that they have in Cleveland,’” Byrne said. “We did have literally nails up in the old visitor locker room at Cleveland Stadium (for players to hang their clothes on). We took a real big nail and painted it gold and pounded it into the wall in the locker room and said, ‘Hey, we have a special locker for Jerry.’”
Glanville complained that the gold paint was already chipping by the time the Oilers got there.
6. Two-minute drill: A former teammate finally defended Russell Wilson
When Amazon Prime NFL analysts Richard Sherman and Tony Gonzalez suggested Russell Wilson had played his way out of Hall of Fame consideration, I noted that Wilson’s candidacy would benefit from the Hall’s requirement that players be retired five seasons before they can be considered. That five-year window will create distance between Wilson and a disappointing final few seasons with Denver, Pittsburgh and the Giants. This will allow for a more balanced evaluation of his career.
None of this means Wilson is a shoo-in for the Hall, especially with Sherman, his former teammate, all but campaigning against him.
Is any former Wilson teammate going to advocate for Wilson? Cam Newton raised that question.
“All that slander… and not one Seahawks teammate ever stood up for Russ” 🤔
Cam Newton calls it a head-scratcher… even though he believes Russ IS a Hall of Famer https://t.co/TwRamwz0Cz pic.twitter.com/LMjGiQLlWy
— 4th&1 with Cam Newton (@4thand1show) October 4, 2025
At least one prominent former Wilson teammate seems to have the QB’s back, to some extent. Michael Bennett was a dominant defensive lineman for the Seahawks during most of his 2011-17 tenure with the team, when he, Wilson and Sherman were teammates. Bennett suggested Sherman held a personal grudge against Wilson.
I’m glad Michael Bennett called out Richard Sherman’s blatant animosity towards Russell Wilson pic.twitter.com/A3sRTXPwVZ
— ᴅᴏxx ⚡️ (@new_era72) October 4, 2025
As noted in recent weeks, I’ll focus on the entirety of Wilson’s career when considering his Hall candidacy, with special focus on his best years with Seattle — specifically, how Wilson’s run with the Seahawks stacks up with other dual-threat QB runs elsewhere.
• Patriots breakthrough: The Patriots have a winning record after five games for the first time since starting 5-0 in 2019, Tom Brady’s final season with the team.
Getting there with a 23-20 road victory over previously unbeaten Buffalo on Sunday night was significant even though the game itself was ugly. This game and a 33-27 victory at Miami in Week 2 suggest new coach Mike Vrabel is going to be a pain for the other AFC East teams. His personality is so strong, we forget his record was 7-18 in his final 25 games with the Titans. The solid start in New England is reassuring, given what most in the league see as an especially weak roster.
In Drake Maye’s second season, the five-game output on offense (15.1 EPA) is the Patriots’ best since 2017. That’s so long ago, Vrabel hadn’t even become the coach of the Titans yet. He got the Patriots to spend big in free agency this past offseason and, with a little success, should be able to get what he wants in the future. His input on personnel will be one of the more fascinating parts of this Patriots rebuild in the absence of an empowered GM.
• Saban doesn’t spare Belichick: Mac Jones’ 342-yard passing performance for the 49ers played a big role in San Francisco’s 26-23 overtime victory over the heavily favored Los Angeles Rams. It was interesting after the game to hear Nick Saban credit the 49ers’ coaching in relation to the coaching Jones received from New England early in his career, when Saban’s longtime friend, Bill Belichick, was the Patriots’ coach.
“I think Mac was one of those guys who was in bad situations in New England relative to coaching and all that stuff, and who was the offensive coordinator, and how did he get developed when he came into the league,” Saban told the Pat McAfee Show.
Belichick was in charge of all aspects of the Patriots’ coaching operation, including the decisions to put longtime defensive coach Matt Patricia and longtime special teams coach Joe Judge in charge of the offense.
• 49ers’ incredible victory: NFL analyst Anthony Reinhard had a great note capturing what the 49ers pulled off against the Rams without starting quarterback Brock Purdy, starting tight end George Kittle and multiple top wide receivers.
The 49ers had 22 targets, 14 catches, and 190 receiving yards totaled tonight by players who were not on their initial 53-man roster.
Those are each the most of any team in the first five weeks since at least 2013. pic.twitter.com/4ryVfsyIkB
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhardNFL) October 3, 2025
Led by Kendrick Bourne, the 49ers got 14 catches and 190 receiving yards from players who were not on their initial 53-man roster, most for any team in the first five weeks of a season since at least 2013.
• McCaffrey washed? Uh … Christian McCaffrey averaged only 2.6 yards per carry with a long run of 8 yards. He is averaging 3.1 yards per rush this season, his lowest through the first five games of a season since 2017, his rookie year. Has McCaffrey lost a step?
“When he played against us, we thought he was the only weapon they had,” an exec from another team said. “I thought he was maybe tougher than he’s been. He ran hard and caught the ball.”
Against the Rams, McCaffrey’s eight receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown made him the No. 2 pass catcher behind Bourne (10 catches, 142 yards). McCaffrey ranks second among all NFL players in receptions (39) and third in receiving yards (387) through five weeks.
• Chargers line issues: A three-play sequence for the Chargers in their 27-10 loss to Washington highlighted issues on their offensive line after losing tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt to injury. On those three plays, the Chargers suffered a sack and then had two gains totaling 54 yards nullified by penalties against right tackle Trey Pipkins, who had just returned to the game after leaving injured.
• What to watch from Jaguars: The Jaguars are 3-1 on the strength of 13 opponent turnovers. They face Kansas City, which has suffered only one turnover this season. Something has to give there. I’m also interested in watching Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has shown more fire and emotion this season, without getting the anticipated uptick in production through the passing game.
Lawrence’s rapport with 2024 first-round receiver Brian Thomas will be important. So far, Thomas’ numbers have been better with Mac Jones, who played when Lawrence was injured in 2024, partly because Thomas has seven drops from Lawrence, compared to only two from Jones.
• Advantage, Brady: Who says Tom Brady doesn’t have a sense of humor?
Tom Brady, alongside Rob Gronkowski on Fox NFL Sunday: “Right now, Drake Maye’s playing with the greatest tight end in the history of the New England Patriots, Hunter Henry.” 🏈🎙️💀 #NFL pic.twitter.com/7fv5mIkQyh
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) October 5, 2025
(Photos of Pete Carroll, left, and Brian Daboll: Michael Hickey, Logan Bowles / Getty Images)
