Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast To Brush Leeward Islands Tonight, Could Become A Hurricane Friday
Jerry Likely To Become Hurricane Friday
Tropical Storm Jerry is battling wind shear as it approaches the Leeward Islands. While it is no danger to the mainland U.S., it could become a hurricane as it curls north into the central Atlantic Ocean.
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Jerry’s Forecast
Jerry is still moving quickly toward the west-northwest, but will soon slow down a tad and eventually make a northwest to northward curl by this weekend, as several other storms have done this season. Therefore, Jerry is not a threat to the mainland U.S.
Jerry’s fast motion and upper level winds is producing strong enough wind shear to hold its intensity in check, for now.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius and Guadeloupe.
Tropical storm force winds and up to 6 inches of rain are possible in these areas tonight into Friday before Jerry curls north and moves away.
The NHC is forecasting Jerry to strengthen to a hurricane, but that may happen after it leaves the northern Leeward Islands Friday or Saturday.
Current Watches and Warnings
After Jerry makes the northward turn, it will then turn sharply east by Monday and is expected to pass well east of Bermuda.
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Current Storm Info, Projected Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)
One Other Area
The NHC is also monitoring another area over the North Atlantic near the Azores. It’s marked by the “X” and color-coded blob in the map below.
For now, there is a low chance it could develop into a subtropical or tropical storm over the next day or so before it encounters even colder water and stronger wind shear.
Possible NHC Development
(The possible area(s) of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An “X” indicates the location of a current disturbance.
)
Here’s Jerry
Jerry became the 10th storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season late Tuesday morning as it was just over 1,300 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.
That’s about two weeks later than the average pace of the 10th storm — Sept. 22 — according to the National Hurricane Center’s 30-year average.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on these, and other happenings in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
