After a long summer and a frantic preseason, opening night is finally here for the 2025-26 Detroit Red Wings season.
And thanks to some fresh-faced rookies, there’s some real energy around the team under head coach Todd McLellan as Detroit looks to snap a nine-year playoff drought.
But before the puck drops, let’s make some bold predictions for how the season will unfold.
1. Red Wings win 5 of first 6 games
Boldness level: 9/10
Confidence level: 5/10
Hear me out on this one. Yes, the Red Wings’ opening schedule looks like a gauntlet, with their first six games coming against playoff teams from last season.
But the start of the season may not be the worst time to see some of those teams, particularly ones such as Toronto (twice) and Florida, which are going to be playing without key pieces from last year’s teams (Mitch Marner for the Maple Leafs, Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk for the Panthers). Throw in the Montreal Canadiens on opening night and Edmonton in an Eastern Time matinee on the second leg of a back-to-back (and last game of a road trip), and the recipe is there for Detroit to sneak up on a few of these opponents early in the season.
A fast start would go a long way for the Red Wings, who will need all the positive morale they can get as they try to navigate a tough Eastern Conference.
2. Lucas Raymond hits 90 points
Boldness level: 7/10
Confidence level: 6.5/10
Last season, only 12 NHL players reached the 90-point threshold. But Raymond actually was at that pace for a large chunk of the season, tracking toward 90 points as late as Feb. 23, just past the 4 Nations Face-Off break. That’s a 57-game sample.
Of course, Raymond (and the Red Wings) fell into a bit of a slump after that, with just 12 points in his next 22 games, but he still finished with 80 points, showing that the next level is within his grasp.
Now, there is some reason for hesitance here, mainly because Raymond could be playing with a rotating cast on his line’s left wing this season. It appears that 20-year-old rookie Emmitt Finnie will get that job to start the season, but it’d be hard to say Finnie is a permanent solution there — and you can likely expect plenty of experimenting as the year goes on. Who knows what that will mean for the line’s chemistry and consistency?
Still, Raymond has proven he can be Detroit’s offensive driver, and at 23 years old, I think it’s entirely possible he hits the 90-point mark and joins the league’s truly elite producers.
3. Detroit’s penalty kill finishes top-16
Boldness level: 8/10
Confidence level: 6/10
The Red Wings finished with the fourth-worst penalty-kill success rate on record last season, at 70.1 percent. So, this one is certainly going out on a limb. However, the penalty kill has been a key focus for Detroit’s new coaching staff, and based on personnel, the Red Wings should be able to get closer to league average.
So, I’m predicting a swing back in the right direction, with Detroit finishing in the league’s top half this season, even if just barely. Last season, the No. 16 power play was Edmonton at 78.2 percent. That feels like an attainable enough number, especially when you consider the addition of a new starting goalie in John Gibson, a new key penalty killer in Mason Appleton, and all the emphasis from the staff.
The flip side: I’ll also say Detroit’s power play (which ranked fourth last season, at an impressive 27 percent) takes a small step back into the No. 8-12 range, which still would put them around 24 percent, but not quite at the elite level they were a year ago. It’s just hard to sustain that level of success, as evidenced by only one team (Tampa Bay) finishing with a top-five power play in both of the last two seasons.
4. Rookie Michael Brandsegg-Nygård scores 20 goals
Boldness level: 8.5/10
Confidence level: 5/10
Considering I didn’t even think Brandsegg-Nygård would make the team a week ago, I’m surprising even myself with this one. And it could backfire in a big way if Brandsegg-Nygård doesn’t end up being a full-timer for Detroit. But I’m predicting this for the same reason he made the roster: He’s been too tough to ignore.
He showed he could score from range or in tight, on the power play or at even strength. He looks like he’ll be on a line with Andrew Copp and J.T. Compher, both of whom are better as setup men. And, if both rookies can lock down their spots, he looks like he’ll be getting one-timer looks from Axel Sandin-Pellikka on the second power-play unit.
That’s the recipe for a potent campaign out of the 2024 first-round pick. Only three rookies accomplished this feat last season, but seven had 17 goals or more (including Red Wings rookie Marco Kasper with 19), and Brandsegg-Nygård’s role and tools give him a chance at making a run at it.
5. Albert Johansson averages 20 minutes per night
Boldness level: 7/10
Confidence level: 7/10
Johansson averaged 16:22 of ice time per game last season and topped 20 minutes just nine times. He also looks slated to begin the season on the third pair. All of that gives me some pause.
But every single one of the 17 games in which he topped 19 minutes last season came under McLellan and assistant coach Trent Yawney, who trusted Johansson in the top four in close to half of the games after they took over at Christmas. Johansson was one of the breakout stories of the second half.
And this year, he looks even better. He added some weight but still has the same smooth skating and hockey sense, plus more confidence.
While he’s been practicing on the third pair lately, I don’t think that fully reflects his standing with the coaching staff. I would expect to see him moved up with Simon Edvinsson for late-game defensive situations, log some time on the penalty kill, and be the obvious choice to move into the top four (on either side) if and when injuries strike.
It’ll be tight, and maybe it ends up more like 19 minutes at year’s end. But we like round numbers around here, so I’ll push the envelope and go for 20.
6. Dylan Larkin scores the Olympic Golden Goal
Boldness level: 10/10
Confidence level: 3/10
This one’s a double dart throw, because it also means I’m predicting the USA to win the Olympic Gold. They haven’t done that since 1980.
But this era of American talent represents their best shot in a long time, and Larkin was one of their best players at the 4 Nations last year — particularly in the games against Canada. So, I’ll say the Red Wings captain has a moment for the ages in Milan, scoring an overtime winner in the gold-medal game.
And before you ask, yes, I’m still taking credit if it turns out to be a regulation game winner.
7. Detroit has a winning record in March
Boldness level: 6/10
Confidence level: 7/10
This one doesn’t feel like it should be bold. And yet, well, you know. Detroit went 4-10 last March and 3-9-2 the year before that. They were also 5-9-1 in 2022-23. Simply put, it’s been their undoing as they’ve tried to turn the corner.
But not this year. Not with a schedule that, at least today, looks much simpler to navigate.
Detroit will still see some tough teams, with Vegas, Florida, Tampa, Dallas and New Jersey all on the schedule (and the latter four all on the same early-March road trip). But the schedule as a whole is much more balanced, with playoff long shots such as Calgary, Buffalo, Boston, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh also on tap.
I think the Red Wings will be focused on righting their wrongs with a better March, so I’ll say they manage to stay just above .500 at 8-6.
8. Red Wings have a new highest-paid player by 2026 opening night
Boldness level: 6.5/10
Confidence level: 7/10
The NHL’s rising salary cap shouldn’t be news to anyone at this point. And even though the Red Wings don’t have anyone in the running for a Kirill Kaprizov-level extension, they’re still going to be dealing with the realities of the new market.
Jackson Lacombe and Luke Hughes each just signed long-term extensions with $9 million AAVs — before either one cracked 50 points.
So, with the cap set to go up yet again, what do we think that will mean for Simon Edvinsson next summer? The 6-foot-6 blue liner has a very real chance this season to get into the same 40-to-50-point range where Hughes and Lacombe have been thus far, while also being a trusted defender who doesn’t get much power-play time.
And with the cap going up the way it is, signing Edvinsson to a bridge deal would just be asking for trouble two or three years down the road. So, I’ll say Edvinsson extends right around that new going rate for top young defensemen and surpasses Larkin ($8.7 million AAV) as the team’s highest-paid player.
9. Three more prospects debut
Boldness level: 7/10
Confidence level: 6/10
Detroit is already set to have three rookies make their NHL debuts on opening night. But those aren’t the only young players knocking on the door.
Center Nate Danielson might have made this team had he not gone down with an injury during the preseason. Forward Amadeus Lombardi had a huge AHL season last year, and while his defensive game still needs work, his skating and skill can be dynamic, and he’ll have plenty more time to hone his defending. And defensemen William Wallinder and Shai Buium both have assets that could benefit the Red Wings by year’s end — Wallinder with his skating, Buium with his skill and creativity, and both with their size.
Danielson has a real chance to be a full-timer by year’s end, but I’ll say three of the four get at least one game this season. That would bring Detroit to a total of six debuts this season, a rather staggering number considering its history for moving slowly with prospects.
10. The Red Wings finish with 92 points … but miss the playoffs
Boldness level: 5/10
Confidence level: 6/10
Here’s my dilemma. If all of these bold predictions come true, the Red Wings are going to be clearly improved this year. And I think they will be.
It’s just that not many teams in the Eastern Conference’s playoff field look poised for a step back. There are also potential resurgent teams, such as the Rangers, looking to get back in, plus other young groups, such as the Blue Jackets and Sabres, pushing right alongside Detroit. So, I landed here, with improvement in the standings but still on the outside looking in.
Missing the playoffs again would certainly be painful, bringing the Red Wings’ drought to a full decade. And it happening in this fashion — by hitting a new high-water mark under GM Steve Yzerman and surpassing what has been the playoff cut line each of the last two years, but still missing out — would be especially brutal. I realize that.
But as much as I think the Red Wings are improved, and as much as I’m buying McLellan as the frontman, I just think the East field is going to be especially hard to crack.
A lot of how this kind of result would be received would likely depend on how it happens. If Detroit looks like a different team and some of its young players continue to blossom into impact players, I could see fans being willing to accept the progress. But if it looks like more of the same in the key times of the year, I think it’ll be a lot harder for fans to stomach.
