Before the NFL season started, all of the MVP hype surrounded the usual suspects in Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. In fact, Burrow was the most-bet quarterback to win the award at BetMGM before the season started. Fast-forward six weeks, and another young quarterback is impacting the betting board: Drake Maye.
The success of the second-year quarterback and his New England Patriots has been one of the more impressive stories in the NFL this season. Maye has led New England to a 4-2 record so far, its best start to a season since 2019, and the best for a Patriots quarterback not named Tom Brady since 1999.
A third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Maye has been at the center of this impressive start under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. The 23-year-old ranks second in the NFL in completion percentage (73.2 percent), fourth in passer rating (112.5) and fifth in passing yards (1522), while throwing 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
In five straight games, Maye has thrown for over 200 yards and recorded a 100+ passer rating. He joins Patrick Mahomes, Dan Marino and Dak Prescott as the only signal callers 23-or-younger to do so in NFL history.
Through his stellar start, the UNC product has seen his NFL MVP odds skyrocket in recent weeks. Maye began the season at +6600 on BetMGM to win MVP, tied for the 18th-best odds alongside Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix. Entering 2025, Maye had worse odds than Caleb Williams (+3500), Kyler Murray (+5000) and Tua Tagovailoa (+4000).
Looking at Maye’s odds just two weeks ago makes this story even more remarkable. Prior to the Patriots’ improbable win over the Buffalo Bills on the road in Week 5, Maye was down to +10000 to win MVP. At that point, he had equal MVP odds with the likes of Saquon Barkley and Trevor Lawrence, and worse odds than Brock Purdy (+8000).
But, after a terrific two-week run, Maye has climbed to just +2000 to win MVP, the eighth-best odds in the NFL. He currently sits behind Justin Herbert (+1900) and in front of Jayden Daniels (+3500), who opened the season at +1100. On Sunday against the Saints, Maye was 18-for-26 for 261 yards, throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions. He has thrown just one pick in his last five games.
Is Maye a legitimate MVP contender? Chad Graff, The Athletic’s senior writer covering the Patriots, has watched Maye’s progression closely.
Graff’s analysis
When Vrabel was looking for a new job, one of the top factors he was looking for was a high-end quarterback he could develop. While Maye had some ups and downs as a rookie, Vrabel was impressed enough with the young quarterback that he wanted to work with him.
After Vrabel was hired, he tabbed Josh McDaniels to lead the offense. Their goal from the start was to curb Maye’s mistakes and keep him in the pocket as a passer for as long as possible. Have him take the singles, so to speak, instead of trying to hit a home run every play.
The risk was that it could limit the big-play ability Maye has, which is arguably his strength. But so far, it’s worked incredibly.
Maye has improved at taking what the defense gives without forcing passes. His turnover-worthy throw percentage is down to 2.1 percent, according to Pro Football Focus, from 3.5 percent last year. So his improvement starts with cutting bad plays.
But his ceiling has also risen quite a bit, and with each week that goes by, the Patriots seem more willing to let Maye air it out and put more on his plate. On back-to-back third-and-longs against the Saints Sunday, Maye threw perfect passes deep down the sideline. Neither went for a catch (one was wiped off due to a questionable offensive pass interference call on Stefon Diggs, and the other bounced off the hands of receiver Mack Hollins), but both were a perfect example of how Maye can push the ball downfield.
In the first three games of the season, Maye’s average pass was only 6.6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which ranked 24th in the league. In the last three games, it’s been 9.2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which ranked fourth. So the offense is starting to open it up for Maye.
Beyond that, what’s especially impressive is that Maye is doing all this without a competent running game. They’ve had to be one-dimensional because they rank 32nd in the league in expected points added per rush and 32nd in rushing success rate.
So Maye is putting together one of the best seasons in the NFL so far without any running game to help him.
