I couldn’t have had my finger further from the pulse in last week’s bold predictions piece. Sadly, I went 0-3, dropping my season ledger to 11-28 (.282). Week 14 is a perfect time to rebound with the following three bold predictions.
Week 14 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
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Colston Loveland Will Finish as a Top-8 TE in Half-PPR
Colston Loveland is the TE15 in half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR) this week, making him a non-starter in 12-team leagues for gamers treating the ECR as gospel. Since Week 9, Loveland is the TE8 in half-PPR points per game (11.4), finishing as the TE2 in Week 9, the TE15 in Week 10, the TE17 in Week 10, the TE2 in Week 12 and tied for the TE28 in Week 13.
The rookie tight end has been up and down, but the Bears will likely need him to bring his A-game in a critical NFC North battle this week. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Bears are 21st in pass rate over expectation (-1.2% PROE) this year and 23rd in PROE (-1.8%) since Week 6, coming out of their bye.
The Packers are 6.5-point favorites this week, which could force the Bears to air it out more often. Loveland could be the primary beneficiary, with the following stats in Chicago’s previous five games:
- 60.3% route participation rate
- 16.3% air yards share
- 14.8% target share
- 0.22 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 16% first-read rate
- 5.2 targets per game
- 20 receptions (4.0 per game)
- 290 receiving yards (58 per game)
- 2.42 yards per route run (YPRR)
- 3 receiving touchdowns
The rookie tight end paced the Bears in receptions per game, receiving yards per game and touchdown receptions in that period. Loveland is playing at a high level and can help fantasy squads this week by finishing as a top-eight player at tight end in half-PPR formats.
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Patrick Mahomes Won’t Finish as a Top-12 QB
Patrick Mahomes is the QB2 in points per game (22.8) this season. He’s finished outside of the top 12 signal-callers only three times in 12 games. One of the occasions he wasn’t a top-12 quarterback was before Rashee Rice completed his six-game suspension.
However, Mahomes was also the QB22 against the Bills in Week 9 and the QB14 against the Broncos in Week 11. The Bills have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game (13.5) to quarterbacks, and the Broncos are tied for the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (14.1) permitted to the position this year. The Texans have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game (12.5) to signal-callers this year.
Houston’s defense is a terror. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Texans are tied for the fourth-fewest yards allowed per play (4.7), have allowed the third-fewest net yards per pass attempt (5.1), are tied for the sixth-most sacks (34) and have surrendered the fewest points per game (16.5) this season. Mahomes would have his hands full with a completely healthy offense.
Unfortunately for Mahomes, Kansas City’s offense will be short-handed for Sunday Night Football. Starting left tackle Josh Simmons is on injured reserve (IR), right tackle Jawaan Taylor hasn’t practiced this week and starting right guard Trey Smith has yet to practice this week after missing last week’s contest. Mahomes will likely be under siege all game, and the Texans have talent on the back end to keep his pass-catching weapons in check.
Mahomes is the QB6 in ECR for Week 14. Four teams are on a bye, and there are some dreadful starting quarterbacks around the NFL. Nevertheless, Mahomes is ranked too high and will need an outlier performance against Houston’s defense to crack the top-12 this week. I don’t expect him to have the outlier showing behind a makeshift offensive line.
Atomic
John Metchie III Will Outscore Adonai Mitchell in Half-PPR
After two games of eye-catching underlying data and lackluster results, Adonai Mitchell exploded for eight receptions, 102 receiving yards and a touchdown on 12 targets against the Falcons in Week 13. John Metchie was an afterthought, logging just four receptions for 19 scoreless receiving yards and losing two yards on his only carry.
Gamers are understandably excited about Mitchell’s explosiveness and potential, but last week was a perfect storm for him. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Falcons have played single-high coverage at the second-highest rate (64%) this year. The pendulum should swing back in Metchie’s direction against the Dolphins this week.
Miami plays two-high coverage at the fifth-highest rate (55.6%). In their games with the Jets, Mitchell has 0.18 TPRR, 2.43 YPRR and 0.53 half-PPR points per route run on 28 routes against two-high coverage. Metchie has 0.22 TPRR, 1.58 YPRR and 0.56 half-PPR points per route run on 36 routes against two-high coverage.
The samples are small but make intuitive sense. Mitchell’s vertical usage — 18.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in three games with the Jets — could have a lid put on it by Miami’s two-high tendencies, and Metchie’s shallow and intermediate usage (5.9-yard aDOT in four games with the Jets) could benefit from how the Dolphins play coverage.
Both players are viable WR3/Flex options in 12-team half-PPR leagues this week, but the less exciting Metchie should outscore the big-play dependent Mitchell.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
