The state of the 2025 Vikings and the challenge that awaits them this weekend are both reflected in the Vegas point spread for Sunday’s game against the Lions, which marks uncharted territory for the franchise under head coach Kevin O’Connell.
The Vikings are currently 8.5-point underdogs for their trip to Detroit’s Ford Field (some sportsbooks have it at 9 or even 9.5). That’s the biggest point spread we’ve seen for a game in the KOC era — in either direction. A team that has gone 37-23 since the 2022 season began, with 40 of those 60 games decided by eight points or fewer, isn’t going to end up with large spreads on either end of the spectrum.
But at this juncture, the 8.5 line feels entirely justified. The Vikings are coming off of a 27-point embarrassment of a loss last Thursday against the Chargers, dropping them to 3-4 on the season. Their offense has largely been a mess, and now J.J. McCarthy returns to action after struggling in seven of his first eight NFL quarters and then missing six weeks with a high ankle sprain.
The Vikings’ defense has also struggled far more than anticipated, which is a significant concern against the 5-2 Lions and their 30.7 points per game (third-most in the league). Minnesota has lost five consecutive games against Detroit, allowing 30-34 points in each one.
This is the biggest line the Vikings have faced since they were 13-point underdogs in the penultimate game of the Mike Zimmer era, with Sean Mannion starting at Lambeau Field in January 2022. They lost that game by 27. The Vikings were only underdogs of eight or more points four times in eight seasons under Zimmer, and they never pulled off the upset. It also happened a bunch of times during their miserable 2011 and 2013 seasons under Leslie Frazier, without any wins.
The last time the Vikings, as a franchise, won a game as an underdog of at least eight points? Late December of 2010, when a 5-9 Vikings team went into Philadelphia as 14.5-point underdogs against the 10-4 Eagles and won 24-14. Antoine Winfield returned a fumble for a touchdown, and Joe Webb and Adrian Peterson also ran for scores in that upset.
With that said, the Vikings’ track record as underdogs under O’Connell is pretty solid (as is their track record of bouncing back from multi-score losses). Only four times has their opponent been favored by four or more points over the past four seasons, and the Vikings won three of those games outright:
In 13 games where they’ve been underdogs of at least a field goal, the Vikings are 5-8 with five one-score losses.
This one will come down to McCarthy’s play and whether or not Brian Flores’ defense can do anything to slow down Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and the Lions’ offense. It wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see McCarthy play well and make this one a thriller that comes down to the wire. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Vikings lose by 27 or more for a second straight week.
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