The recent shooting in Minneapolis is almost like a scene from One Battle After Another, except that the victim was white, not Black. But still, it was a living re-enactment of that movie’s depiction of America right now. To people on the Left, America is under the occupation of a white supremacist Nazi dictatorship, and ICE officers are the Gestapo. The reality is that if such a thing were true, they’d all be dead or in jail by now and couldn’t even show up at a protest, much less tweet about one.
We see real dictators in Venezuela, where children sold their bodies for sex, dogs on the street were food, and if you so much as used social media to criticize the government, you’d be disappeared. The same is true in Iran, as hundreds of thousands pour into the street in a brave exercise in real resistance, and yes, their lives are at stake.
In America, your life is at stake if you taunt an armed Federal officer, if you attempt to flee arrest — whether it’s a traffic cop or a border agent, there’s a good chance you’ll be shot or arrested. Otherwise, you’re free to scream at them all you want, and they can’t do a thing, unlike in Iran and Venezuela. I’m not sure Americans on the Left know the difference.
Certainly not in Hollywood. Nobody deserves to be shot in a political protest, in my opinion. Not Renee Good, not Ashli Babbitt, who was shot point-blank by a Capitol Police officer on January 6th. I’d prefer they never be shot at unless they shoot first.
Either way, it is yet another battle in our ongoing Civil War, which has been raging mostly online for the past 10 years, give or take a violent incident or two or three. These are scary times, but they are also polarized times with each side viewing events and our country very differently.
For our purposes, however, it’s the Left that will be voting on these awards, as to quote someone on Twitter:
We were there before, but now there is absolutely no question that the movie Hollywood will rally around will become their voice for the next few months.
But here’s the problem. There is a growing consensus in various places about Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and why it will lose to One Battle After Another. I know why, you know why, but most people “out there in the world” might not. They don’t know what an insular world Hollywood is, how a consensus around a movie builds, what a reflecting pool it has become, or how film critics and bloggers mostly shape the race now.
I’m here to tell you that it will be a shitstorm of epic proportions should Sinner lose, because for Hollywood, all they’ve done for years now is virtue signal their diversity, equity, and inclusion as top priorities. They’ve used Black people to host their award shows, announce their awards, and place them in their movies to meet the requirements, but when it comes to the top awards, when it comes to rewarding success, they can’t quite get there.
I don’t think Hollywood or the Oscars are racist. I used to. I don’t anymore. I think people respond to seeing themselves on screen, and in the case of One Battle, they see themselves in Leonardo DiCaprio being the shepherd of the flock of Black and Brown people fleeing the MAGA racists. That’s the reality.
Paul Thomas Anderson is somehow the only white male filmmaker who gets away with telling a story about race and racism without being called out. Maybe after the movie wins we’ll start to hear the outcries. I don’t think it will be quite as bad as Brokeback Mountain, but it will be something whole generations never forget.
Here’s why. Sinners cost less and made more than One Battle After Another. It is better reviewed and better audience-reviewed. It will very likely come into the Oscars with the most nominations — Clayton Davis is predicting it breaks all records with 15 (I do not know if it will or not).
After the Critics’ Choice, there was much upset over Michael B. Jordan losing to Timothée Chalamet. As some of these videos show:
But now imagine, Michael B. Jordan also loses, along with Picture and Director. At some point, other people besides me are going to notice the screenplay-only game with Black-themed movies: Precious, American Fiction, BlackKKlansman, Get Out. It’s been 98 years, and still no Black person has ever won Best Director. Sinners has a tiny chance to win Best Picture, but Best Director?
I will admit that seeing Paul Thomas Anderson finally win at the Critics’ Choice Awards was heartwarming. He’s a nice guy and he’s paid his dues and then some. He’s made so many movies, he’s never won. So I know how important it is to award him. It’s just that Hollywood and the Oscars have dangled the carrot. They made people think they cared about elevating marginalized groups, per their dictates. This release just came out with the latest Oscar announcement:
To be eligible for consideration in the Best Picture category for the 98th Academy Awards, films must be eligible for general entry and have submitted a confidential Academy Representation and Inclusion Standards Entry (RAISE ) form. They must have met two of the four standards required in addition to an expanded theatrical eligibility requirement, which includes a theatrical run of seven days, consecutive or non-consecutive, in 10 of the top 50 U.S. markets, no later than 45 days after the initial release in 2025. Eligibility in the Best Picture category is subject to change if late-in-the-year films do not complete the planned expanded theatrical run by January 22, 2026. A film’s distributor or producer had the option to opt out of Best Picture consideration. A list of productions eligible in the Best Picture category is available at https://www.oscars.org/oscars/rules-eligibility.
Hollywood and the hive mind out there on Twitter spend all of their days scolding everyone else for being racists. With the exception of one very kind studio this year, my site has been blacklisted because they believe themselves to be morally superior to me; all of them do. They were offended that I mocked “White Dudes for Harris,” and they called me a “racist.” That’s the game. But to what end?
It isn’t just social media either. It’s high-profile celebrities like Amanda Seyfried. Well, so now those chickens are about to come home to roost. Be ready, Hollywood. Be ready.
I would prefer the whole thing end, the “woke” crap that monitors and controls movies, the judgmental scolds with their pointing finger ready, the blacklists, the polarization, the division, the idea that every person in Hollywood thinks the other half of the country is racist. Yeah, I’d like to see that end. Everyone would. But this year, Hollywood, the worm will turn, and unfortunately for Warner Bros., they’re in a pickle.
I noted the ads they posted after the award announcements. You can see which movie they believe is more emotionally important and which they believe will win.
These ads say one is “important” and the other is a “forever favorite.” So yeah, they’ve made their choice and they chose the Crash of 2026. I’m sorry but it just is. You could watch them as a double feature and they would play really well together.
This scene:
And this scene:
Even the ad is kind of similar:
Now, of course, One Battle is far more artful, but it does sort of give a similar vibe updated for 2026. We weren’t a polarized country, and no one saw Crash as “important,” except people in the industry who voted for it. We all saw Brokeback Mountain as important and thought it was a travesty. Obviously, One Battle is winning everything, as Brokeback Mountain did, so it won’t be an upset for those of us in the industry. For those outside the industry, however, it will be harder to understand.
This industry called movies like Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, La La Land and Green Book “racist.” Those charges transformed the industry and it’s just funny to see it all come full circle with a whole new generation.
Anyway, Warner Bros. got four nominations at the Producers Guild, which makes me think the industry is trying to fight back against the imminent Netflix takeover. The question is whether that will impact Oscar voting.
F1 and Weapons probably don’t make the cut, which leaves two slots open for the PGA. Here are the movies that missed PGA and made Oscar since the era of the preferential ballot:
2009–The Blind Side
2010–Winter’s Bone (Critics Choice), The Kids Are All Right (Globes)
2011–The Tree of Life (Critics Choice)
2012–None
2013–Philomena (Globes)
2014–Selma (Critics Choice)
2015–Room (Critics Choice)
2016–None
2017–Phantom Thread (National Board of Review), Darkest Hour (Critics Choice)
2018–Boheminan Rhapsody (SAG)
2019–None
2020–The Father (Globes)
2021–Drive My Car (BAFTA director)
2022–Women Talking (SAG), Triangle of Sadness (Globes), All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA)
2023–None
2024–Nickel Boys (Critics Choice), I’m Still Here (?)
So at most three are added in, sometimes two are added, most often one.
Our chart right now looks like this with the BAFTA long list added in:
Usually, it’s the PGA that comes the closest so you really only have to as which two films will replace F1 and Weapons, if those are the ones that get left off. I will caution that Weapons is attached to Amy Madigan and if she’s the winner this year, and it looks like she is, then Weapons could get swept along. That, plus the overwhelming support for Warner Bros. not getting sold to Netflix. I think that might drive some of the vote this year, a last gasp to save their industry. Who knows. Maybe it goes that way.
We still have the highly unpredictable international voters, some 3,000 added over the past few years. We have no idea what they’re going to do. The biggest question will be around Wagner Moura and Best Actor. I built a chart to try to try to see better with the long lists but honestly, it didn’t reveal anything interesting.
I think it’s possible It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent are splitting the vote. If both films are equally liked and pulling votes, neither will get in.
Here are my predictions right now, though they might change after the Golden Globes this weekend (we’ll be posting our final predictions tomorrow).
Best Picture
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Sentimental Value
Bugonia
Train Dreams
Weapons
It Was Just an Accident
Alt: ,ay Kelly, The Secret Agent, No Other Choice, Wicked for Good
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Alt. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia, Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident, Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Alt. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue, Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good, Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actor
Timothée Chalament, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Alt. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent, George Clooney, Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Ariana Grande, Wicked for Good
Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme
Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alt. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Original Screenplay
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Blue Moon
Weapons
Sentimental Value
Alt. It Was Just An Accident, Eddington
Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Train Dreams
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Alt. No Other Choice
Casting
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Editing
One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Cinematography
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
Train Dreams
Hamnet
Alt. Marty Supreme
Production Design
Frankenstein
Sinners
Hamnet
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Wicked: For Good
Costume
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Score
Sinners
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
F1
Song
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners”
“Golden” K-Pop Demon Hunters
“The Girl In The Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
Alt. “Drive” from F1, “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
Nuremberg
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Sound
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Wicked: For Good
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
International Feature
Norway, Sentimental Value
France, It Was Just an Accident
Spain, Sirât
Brazil, The Secret Agent
South Korea, No Other Choice
Documentary Feature
The Perfect Neighbor
The Alabama Solution
Cover-Up
My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow
Mr. Nobody against Putin
