Good morning! The Knicks are back in action tonight in Sacramento to face the Kings at 10pm (get your naps in, my friends). Neither Mitchell Robinson nor Guerschon Yabusele are listed on the injury report, so both appear good to go on the first night of a back to back. For Sacramento, Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis are still dealing with injuries while Dennis Schroeder is suspended.
On to today’s newsletter, where boy do we have a special treat. Making his KFS debut, Jeremias Engelmann has penned an analytics & film based ode to Deuce McBride. If you don’t know about Engelmann, you should. He’s a former analyst for the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns as well as the developer of ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus. If that doesn’t convince you, here he is giving a presentation at Harvard for the New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports. I’d try to tell you what its about but then my brain would explode and the newsletter would take a small dip in quality.
Lately, Jeremias has been lending his expertise to Royce Webb and his Substack, 5×5, where you can find more of his exceptional work. Right now, Royce is offering a special 50% OFF subscription for Knicks Film School readers, which you can access here.
This piece is provided to all KFS readers in partnership with them, free for all to read, which we greatly appreciate. Enjoy!
A deep dive into what makes New York’s combo guard special
by Jeremias Engelmann
The Knicks feature a pair of perennial All-Stars — Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns — and two NBA Finalists: OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges.
But one player flying under the national media’s radar is driving a lot of the Knicks’ success. That’s what advanced metrics say, anyway.
Does the honor of New York’s Most Impactful Player really belong to a reserve guard who was drafted in the second round and scores fewer than 13 points per game?
Let’s explore why this isn’t as crazy as it sounds, and what exactly makes Deuce McBride such a valuable member of the Knicks.
It’s the all-in-one player metrics where McBride really shines — the kind that estimate each player’s impact on how much his team scores and how much the opponent scores.
At the core of these modern metrics lies an advanced variation of plus-minus, called Adjusted Plus-Minus (APM). It uses lineup information to take the quality of teammates and opponents into account.
This includes xRAPM, my adjusted plus-minus metric. You might remember my previous version at ESPN, when it was known as Real Plus-Minus. Other APM-based metrics support McBride as well, including Estimated Plus-Minus.
These metrics are not identifying specific skills, such as the best shot creator, scorer or rim-defender. They simply imply that the presence of McBride is the biggest factor determining whether a Knicks lineup will outscore the opponent.
When taken on individual-game basis, plus-minus data — the +/- column in the box score — is not very meaningful. But when we look at full seasons (or multiple seasons), trends appear that give us insight beyond the box score.
This is where we really see why Deuce matters so much to the Knicks.
McBride is:
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1st on the Knicks in plus-minus per possession, and on-off rating, by a large margin;
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6th in the NBA in single-season APM;
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21st in three-year APM (multiple seasons of data make this version more accurate);
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1st on the Knicks in xRAPM, which blends plus-minus data with individual stats to create an even more accurate metric.
What about Brunson, the Knicks’ All-NBA point guard — why isn’t he first on the squad in advanced stats?
Impact metrics take both offense and defense into account. As opposed to McBride, who’s solid on both ends, Brunson and particularly his defensive impact are a problem. For two straight seasons, the Knicks have defended a lot better without Brunson on the floor — more than eight points per 100 possessions better.
When we have that much data, it’s a strong signal that Brunson’s anemic defense is giving back a hefty portion of the points he’s creating on offense.
McBride doesn’t do a ton of stuff on offense: His self-creation attempts can look clunky, and he doesn’t grab many offensive rebounds or rack up assists. (More on his passing below.)
So how is he a top-30 NBA player in offensive impact? And what makes the Knicks perform so well with him on the court?
Perhaps the best way to illustrate McBride’s value is the following possession:
McBride plants himself in the left corner, attentive, anticipating the play, even as the Knicks fumble and nearly lose the ball on the opposite side. Brunson gains possession and hot-potatoes the ball to Mikal Bridges, who’s essentially double-teamed. At this moment, the expected value of the possession is low — the discombobulated Knicks look like they need a reset with only 15 on the shot clock.
But when Bridges swings the ball to McBride, he’s ready to launch immediately — even VJ Edgecombe, one of the most athletic players in the league, can’t bother him. McBride drains the shot, turning a low-value possession into three points.
Let’s break down what makes Deuce so potent in these situations.
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Extreme accuracy: Most importantly, he’s simply one of the best shooters in basketball — he’s at 44% on 3s this season, 11th-best in the league.
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Zero hesitation: He’s not burdened by conscience, ranking in the NBA’s top 30 in 3-point attempt rate.
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Lightning release: McBride has one of the quickest 3-point shots in the game.
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A true jumper: He gets great elevation. As he told the New York Post recently, a talk with Ray Allen led McBride to jump higher on his 3s. And indeed, optical tracking shows he gets off the ground more than almost any other NBA player.
Those attributes help McBride and the Knicks in a couple of key ways:
Gravity: Given his quick, high release, opponents have to stay home on McBride, all the way out to the 3-point line and beyond. In turn, that gives Deuce’s teammates more space to operate, drive, and score in the paint.
Confidence: Players who can shoot quickly without compromising their form can shoot with confidence — they know that opponents can’t disturb them.
In fact, McBride appears essentially unaffected by the presence of a nearby defender. While most NBA players see their field-goal percentage drop when a defender is nearby, McBride converts 45% of his 3-point attempts when a defender is between two and four feet away.
That makes McBride one of the league’s best at handling so-called “grenades” — passes from a teammate with very little time on the clock.
Given McBride’s accuracy, the Knicks’ best play in most half-court situations is a 3-point attempt.
Even before we get to the question of offensive rebounds, Deuce’s 44% 3-point shooting is worth 1.32 points per possession, an elite figure.
Furthermore, his high-arcing shots are easier for his teammates to rebound, playing into a team strength — the Knicks are fourth in offensive rebounding percentage. That only reinforces the importance of getting up a shot (vs. turning the ball over).
Speaking of which, McBride’s propensity to let if fly limits the Knicks’ turnovers, because it typically ends the possession right there and then — it shuts off “opportunities” for him and other Knicks to lose the ball on a drive or a wayward pass.
The lineup data suggests McBride trails only seven other NBA players — including Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — when it comes to limiting his team’s turnovers.
This is especially helpful in end-of-clock situations that might otherwise end in a steal or a blocked shot and lead to a fast break the other way.
When I worked for the Dallas Mavericks, we had a player whose specialty was 3-point shooting: Dāvis Bertāns.
And there are plenty of other examples — players with relatively low usage, superior 3-point accuracy and a high 3-point attempt rate: Kyle Korver, Malik Beasley and Isaiah Joe come to mind, just to name a few.
I’d argue McBride is a more well-rounded player than many other marksmen.
First, McBride is more athletic — with a better handle — than most 3-point specialists, allowing him to get to the rim more readily, especially on the break.
Second, McBride has a good passing eye, even if his assist numbers are nothing special.
I believe his low assist numbers are mainly a function of the Knicks’ sporting a number of players who already create for both themselves and others.
On a team with fewer creators, McBride’s could rack up more assists. One indicator of that: His career 3.6 assist-to-turnover ratio is among the best in the NBA.
And third, he’s a much better defender than a lot of other 3-point specialists. In fact, xRAPM has Deuce as a positive defender — in the NBA’s 78th percentile — which is pretty rare for a 6’2” combo guard.
When I watch him, I’m especially impressed by McBride’s closeouts. Here he shows great anticipation, predicting the next pass and rushing out before the pass is even made:
Often, closing out is simply about motivation.
I’ve written a lot about Luka Dončić, and my frustration watching him when I was in Dallas, as he sometimes seemed too lazy to sprint out to the 3-point line.
You won’t see that with McBride: He displays both spirit and speed. You could say that McBride maximizes the Knicks’ 3-point attempt rate while doing everything he can to limit the opponents’ 3-point rate.
Speaking of anticipation, I am also a fan of McBride’s help-side defense. With the massive number of pick-and-rolls in today’s NBA, it’s a big positive to have defenders who recognize and stifle the pass to the roller and/or contest what would’ve otherwise been a simple layup:
While McBride doesn’t have off-the-charts steal numbers, lineup data suggests that he is still a big positive when it comes to increasing opponent turnovers, ranking him in the 90th percentile.
What’s more, some of his contributions don’t show up on his box-score line.
Check out this video where McBride — being pesky as usual — applies full-court pressure and forces the ball-handler to lose the ball:
And another aspect of his defense doesn’t show up in the box score: pass denials. McBride is one of the best at chasing his man around and interrupting the opponents’ action. By doing so, Deuce burns valuable time off the shot clock.
Add it up, and McBride’s one of the best 3 & D players in the game.
Jaylen Brown recently declared himself the NBA’s best two-way player, but it’s guys like McBride who have a better claim — he truly makes a measurable impact on both ends, as shown by xRAPM and other advanced metrics.
Even if the metrics might be a bit too enthusiastic in identifying McBride as the absolute best player on such a talented roster, one thing seems perfectly clear: Deuce is doing a whole lot of little things that aren’t always apparent, but that help the Knicks rack up Ws.
Jeremias Engelmann is a former analyst for the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns and the developer of ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus. Special thanks to him and Royce Webb for sharing their insight with the Knicks Film School community, and be sure to read more of their work at 5×5, right here on Substack.
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“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”
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