What would a Robert Thomas trade look like for the Blues? Comps, return — and would it be worth it?
ST. LOUIS — The NHL has seen a couple of significant trades go down this week, with the Vancouver Canucks’ Kiefer Sherwood sent to the San Jose Sharks and the Calgary Flames’ Rasmus Andersson dealt to the Vegas Golden Knights. Sherwood was ranked No. 2 on The Athletic’s trade board 4.0 this week, and Andersson was No. 3 on the previous trade board before he was dealt.
The St. Louis Blues have the second-most players (five) behind Vancouver (six) on this week’s board, but so far, the club has been quiet.
The highest player on colleague Chris Johnston’s list is No. 14 Justin Faulk, followed by No. 15 Robert Thomas, No. 24 Brayden Schenn, No. 25 Jordan Binnington and No. 36 Jordan Kyrou.
The fact that Blues general manager Doug Armstrong hasn’t made any moves doesn’t mean he’s not exploring. He is. But as reported in December, he isn’t going to accept “pennies on the dollar” for his trade targets, and each of those targets has at least a partial no-trade clause, so snappy decisions aren’t likely.
There are, however, just two weeks left before the Olympic trade freeze (Feb. 4 to Feb. 22), then 12 days from the end of the freeze until the NHL trade deadline on March 6.
Most of the Blues players on the trade board aren’t all that surprising, but one added recently caught some attention: Thomas.
The team’s No. 1 center, who’s on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, first appeared on trade board 3.0 at No. 11, and despite falling a few spots, the speculation continues as to whether the 2019 Stanley Cup winner could be moved. In a recent article looking at the Minnesota Wild’s top targets, colleagues Michael Russo and Joe Smith labeled Thomas as “the dream scenario.”
But would the Blues actually move him? And if so, what would the return be?
Let’s dive into the situation, exploring comparable players who have been moved and whether it could happen.
What’s his value to the Blues?
Rutherford: The Blues drafted Thomas at No. 20 in 2017. They believed at the time they got a steal and still do — and they should. Last season, the now-26-year-old became the fifth-fastest player in franchise history to reach 400 career points (473 games), behind Bernie Federko, Brett Hull, Pavol Demitra and Garry Unger.
Thomas had 11 goals and 33 points in 42 games before his injury this season, though, which is a step back.
In 2023-24, Thomas posted a career-high 86 points in 82 games, scoring 2.26 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick. In 2024-25, he had 81 points in 70 games with 2.79 points per 60 at five-on-five. This season, he has dropped to 2.09.
Thomas’ goals per 60 at five-on-five were 0.7 in each of the previous two seasons, so he’s not too far off that pace at 0.63 this season. But his assists have fallen from 2.09 per 60 last season at five-on-five to 1.46 this season, mostly because his secondary assists have fallen from 0.99 to 0.52.
This should provide some context as to whether the Blues would move him, with the question becoming: Is Thomas the issue?
The chart below, from All Three Zones, illustrates that despite Thomas’ subpar offensive numbers, he has still made elite passes this season. His teammates, particularly the top-line players, just haven’t gotten off shots and finished chances. Thomas is averaging nearly 3.5 high-danger passes per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
That’s not to take Thomas off the hook, but if Kyrou, whose goals per 60 were down from 1.3 last season to 0.83 this season through Monday, and Pavel Buchnevich, who’s down from 0.88 to 0.47, are converting, then perhaps it’s a different story.
If Thomas isn’t here, then who’s giving the Blues a chance to create offense? Dvorsky is next in line, and although he has shown some skill, he might not be a top-line center.
That said, if the Blues are looking to break up their core and Thomas is the player who could draw the most interest — or the only one of the team’s big three forwards, along with Buchnevich and Kyrou, who would draw any interest — they have to listen. Armstrong essentially said in December that he doesn’t have any untouchables on his roster.
What are Thomas’ trade comparables in the past five years?
Goldman: There really isn’t a perfect trade comp because players of his caliber generally don’t hit the trade market. In the past five years, only three trades have involved a true 1C: the Sharks trading Tomas Hertl to Vegas, the Buffalo Sabres sending Jack Eichel to the Golden Knights, and Bo Horvat going from the Canucks to the New York Islanders.
Since that is pretty slim pickings, let’s expand to all top-six centers. The list then grows by another four: J.T. Miller (Canucks to New York Rangers), Elias Lindholm (Calgary Flames to Canucks), Pierre-Luc Dubois (Los Angeles Kings to Washington Capitals) and Ryan O’Reilly (Blues to Toronto Maple Leafs).
Zoom out to include all top-six forwards, and players such as Mikko Rantanen, Jake Guentzel, Alex DeBrincat, Timo Meier, Tyler Toffoli, Brandon Hagel and Sam Reinhart join the fold as traded players from the past five years.
One other comp to consider is a player who has had a similar season to Thomas so far: Derek Stepan.
What do those comps tell us about a potential return?
Goldman: The context of each trade situation is different, so there isn’t a perfect match. The Eichel situation was unique for a few reasons: the circumstances around his injury (and treatment path) and his caliber as an elite 1C. The return in that situation was a first- and second-round pick, Alex Tuch and Peyton Krebs.
Lindholm, O’Reilly and Horvat were all pending unrestricted free agents (and only Horvat extended with his acquiring team). Those trades all centered on a first-round pick (plus later picks and prospects). As a restricted free agent, Dubois brought back Gabriel Vilardi, Rasmus Kupari, Alex Iafallo and a 2024 second-rounder. When he was later a depressed asset moving from L.A. to Washington with a massive contract, it was in exchange for Darcy Kuemper in a one-for-one deal.
Hertl was in Year 2 of an eight-year contract with a no-movement clause when the Sharks flipped him to Vegas. The return there was a 2025 first-rounder and 2023 first-rounder David Edstrom. A Thomas deal could have a similar framework, since his full no-trade clause kicked in last July.
Stepan was moved just before his no-trade took effect. He was in Year 3 of a six-year contract when the Arizona Coyotes acquired him and Antti Raanta for the seventh pick and Tony DeAngelo.
As for some of the wingers dealt over the years, the Guentzel trade was the only deal that didn’t include a first-rounder, and it took more of a quantity-over-quality approach for the rental. DeBrincat, Hagel, Toffoli and Reinhart all brought back first-rounders, plus. So did Meier, with that “plus” having a bit more weight with a few prospects.
The Rantanen situation was a bit more complicated. The first trade (to the Carolina Hurricanes) brought back Marty Necas, Jack Drury, a second and a fourth. The second trade (to the Dallas Stars) took two firsts, two thirds and Logan Stankoven. Unlike Meier, he was a rental, but the Stars extended him.
So a first-rounder seems like a fundamental part of any Thomas trade proposals. But that should be just the start of a return for a non-rental center. Other high-end prospects or up-and-coming NHLers should also be a part of the equation.
Would it be worth it?
Rutherford: The package would have to be fairly overwhelming. Thomas is in the prime of his career, and though the team may be a few years from legitimate contention, he could still be reasonably young by then. Also, with a salary cap that projects to $113.5 million for the 2027-28 season, Thomas’ cap hit ($8.125 million through 2030-31) is already looking attractive for his production.
No, that production isn’t happening for Thomas this season, but it isn’t happening for anybody on the Blues. When he’s playing well, he has the most offensive talent on the team, and he can be its best defensive forward. Yes, there are things you’d like to see improve — leadership and body language. But if the Blues move on from Thomas, they still have two huge question marks on that front in Kyrou and Buchnevich.
Goldman: The fact that players of Thomas’ caliber generally don’t hit the trade market could up a potential return for St. Louis. Only 40 of the top 150 in this year’s Player Tiers project were acquired via trade by their current teams, and only eight were centers. The best way to acquire star talent is to draft and develop it, so teams with shakier track records in that department or that are contending and can’t wait for a player to blossom into a star generally leap at the opportunity to trade for high-end talent.
The fact there are only so many top-six centers on the trade board — Nazem Kadri, Vincent Trocheck and Steven Stamkos (who is better suited on the wing at this point in his career) — adds to the Blues’ leverage. A relatively weak free-agent class (which includes the likes of Evgeni Malkin, Adam Henrique, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Charlie Coyle down the middle) does too. A thin class could drive up costs even more for the middle class (and subsequently, the actual stars).
So GMs might be even more intrigued by a cost-controlled player like Thomas, who has five more years under contract (at a cost that is more than reasonable for a 1C).
Of course, all of this could also be a case for why the Blues wouldn’t want to give up the type of player who’d be in such high demand.
