BREAKING: Nio projects 1st ever quarterly profit, boosting confidence among shareholders and car owners

• Nio has projected it will achieve its first quarterly profit under both non-GAAP and GAAP standards, injecting rare confidence into shareholders and car owners.
• Driven by the profit alert, Nio surged nearly 11% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

(Nio logo. Image credit: CnEVPost)

Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO, HKG: 9866) expects to achieve its first quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of 2025 — both non-GAAP and GAAP — injecting rare confidence into shareholders and car owners.

The Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker issued a profit alert in pre-market trading on Thursday, projecting adjusted operating profit (non-GAAP) for the fourth quarter to range between about RMB 700 million ($100 million) and RMB 1.2 billion ($172 million).

This will mark the company’s first quarterly non-GAAP adjusted operating profit, it said.

By comparison, Nio recorded a non-GAAP adjusted operating loss of RMB 5.54 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Under GAAP standards, Nio expects the fourth-quarter 2025 operating profit to range from about RMB 200 million ($29 million) to RMB 700 million ($100 million).

GAAP refers to US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Nio believes non-GAAP financial metrics provide a clearer view of the key indicators used by management in financial and operational decision-making.

The historic first quarterly profit boosts shareholder and car owner confidence and demonstrates Nio’s business model viability.

Driven by the profit alert, Nio surged nearly 11% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Nio management had previously said multiple times that the target was to achieve its first quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of 2025.

However, the company’s management cautiously emphasized that this was based on non-GAAP standards. Today’s announced GAAP-based profit forecast came as a pleasant surprise.

This was primarily attributed to sustained sales growth in the fourth quarter, a favorable product mix, and optimized vehicle margins, Nio said.

Additionally, the company’s ongoing comprehensive cost reduction initiatives and continuous improvements in operational efficiency have contributed to this outcome, it said.

Nio ES8 Monthly Retail Sales 2024-2026

Month
2024
2025
2026

January
615
446
17,646

February
414
479

March
802
514

April
773
539

May
937
292

June
882
839

July
822
1,090

August
857
77

September
766
2,803

October
747
6,703

November
572
10,689

December
1,001
22,258

Nio ES8 monthly retail sales

2024


2025


2026

The projected fourth-quarter profitability was largely driven by the strong performance of the third-generation ES8 following its launch.

Nio officially launched the third-generation ES8 at Nio Day 2025 on September 20, 2025, with deliveries commencing the following day on September 21.

Throughout 2025, Nio delivered slightly over 40,000 third-generation ES8 units, with the vast majority delivered in the fourth quarter.

On January 30, the third-generation ES8 reached its 60,000th delivery milestone. In January, the model delivered 17,646 units, accounting for 65% of Nio Inc’s total deliveries.

With a starting price of RMB 406,800 ($57,200), the third-generation ES8 is one of Nio’s highest-priced models and carries one of its highest gross margins.

Nio management has indicated the third-generation ES8 has a gross margin of about 20%.

Following a strong fourth-quarter performance, Nio may face challenges in the first quarter 2026, similar to domestic peers, as the first quarter is typically a slow season for China’s auto market.

Since January, the EV industry landscape has become more complex as consumers face an additional 5% purchase tax cost, while China’s vehicle trade-in subsidies remain in a transitional phase, impacting demand.

China’s passenger NEV wholesale volume in January is estimated at 900,000 units, representing a 1% year-on-year increase but a 42% decline from December, according to data released Wednesday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

Nio Inc delivered 27,182 vehicles in January, a 96.08% year-on-year increase but a 43.53% decrease from December.

February may see further deterioration as the Chinese New Year holiday from February 15-23 will disrupt automakers’ production and delivery schedules.

In September 2025, Nio founder, chairman, and CEO William Li mentioned during a small-scale media briefing that the entire Chinese EV industry would face growth pressures in the first quarter 2026 as national stimulus policies phase out.

From an industry demand perspective, achieving even half of the fourth-quarter 2025’s levels would be a positive outcome in the first quarter 2026, he said at the time.

Additionally, rising raw material costs — including memory chips and metals — are also raising concerns.

UBS analysts said in a January 26 research note that if automakers absorb all cost increases for memory chips and metals, it could completely erode their profits.

Nio will launch two new models in the second quarter of 2026 and one new model in the third quarter.