NASCAR 2026 season expert predictions: Driver of the Year and more superlatives – The Athletic

The return of the Chase for the NASCAR Cup as the championship format will reshape many aspects of how we view Cup Series seasons, and that should be evident in our annual preseason superlatives and predictions.

With no more “win and in” — and no more elimination format with a one-race championship round — consistent excellence will trump brief hot streaks as the reliable way to win a Cup title. It will also change how we define a successful season, including how we view driver performance.

For example: Tyler Reddick didn’t win a race last year, and many felt he had an off year. But Reddick also collected the eighth-most points of anyone in 2025 — pretty solid! So did he really have that “bad” of a year?

Those types of changes will be a thread that weaves through our guesses below. So without further delay, here are our preseason superlatives, Chase picks and championship predictions.

Driver of the Year

Jeff Gluck: Kyle Larson

New championship system? So what? Larson scored the most overall points last year in addition to winning the final edition of the elimination format, so it’s not like he can’t put an outstanding season-long performance together.

I’m putting faith in crew chief Cliff Daniels, a Chad Knaus disciple, to channel the old No. 48 days and piece together a strong regular season followed by a dominant Chase effort.

Larson wins his third title, putting him in elite company, while going back-to-back in two different playoff systems to cement himself as one of the all-time greats — and this when he’ll still just be 34 years old.

Jordan Bianchi: Christopher Bell

Bell is due for a superstar season where he scores six to seven wins, leads a thousand-plus laps and is among the leaders in several other key statistical categories. If this happens, he’ll be NASCAR’s Driver of the Year regardless of where he finishes in the year-end points.

Breakout Driver

Gluck: Carson Hocevar

Do you hear that? It’s a hurricane warning. “Hurricane Hocevar,” as Leigh Diffey dubbed him, is one of the fastest young drivers we’ve seen in recent years. His issue seems to be finishing off races and staying out of trouble rather than figuring out how to go fast. He’s still very young and continuing to find his way, but he could be the driver who not only gets his first career victory this season — but opens the floodgates to become a regular Chase contender for years to come.

Bianchi: Carson Hocevar

From this perspective, neither Hocevar nor his Spire Motorsports team has yet to exhibit the necessary consistency to think he’ll fight for a spot in the Chase. But, winning a race, or two, yeah, Hocevar can certainly do this. And he will, making him the breakout driver of 2026.

Rookie of the Year

Connor Zilisch*

* Zilisch is the only driver competing for Rookie of the Year this season, so instead, we’ll predict how he does.

Gluck: Highly respectable rookie season (21st to 25th in points)

Jesse Love, Zilisch’s best friend, told me this last year: “I thought going from Xfinity to Cup was like going from college football to the NFL — but it’s more like high school football to the NFL. It’s not like you’re not racing double the amount of good guys as in Xfinity; you’re racing 35 great drivers. It’s harder than you even think it is. It’s so hard, dude. It’s unreal.”

From that standpoint, Zilisch finishing in the top 25 in the standings would be extremely impressive; remember, this is a driver who only made his first oval start (in any kind of car!) three and a half years ago. There are a lot of winning, veteran drivers who can’t finish inside the top 25 points every year; if Zilisch does so, it would be a sign that the hype is real.

Bianchi: Solid, respectable rookie season

Expectations are sky-high for the 19-year-old wonderkid who many within the garage believe will eventually become one of NASCAR’s great drivers. And while he may, and likely will, reach these lofty heights, to think he’s going to set the sport on fire as a rookie is not realistic.

What is realistic is that there are some weeks where Zilisch dazzles and other weeks where he looks very much like the rookie he is. When the season concludes, if he is ranked somewhere between 20th and 25th in points and has a handful of top-10 finishes, his freshman season should be considered a success.

Best Rivalry

Gluck: Kyle Larson vs. Christopher Bell

One of the things that excites me most about the Chase format is the ability to see the top drivers go head-to-head, week after week, in a long points battle. That could revive the Larson/Bell rivalry, which has mostly been a friendly one but has deep roots in dirt racing.

Larson was untouchable in midget racing before Bell came along, and then Bell started beating Larson and forced the Californian to raise his game. He was one of the first drivers who ever really pushed Larson, and then they both made their way into NASCAR.

This might not flare up in a bad blood type of way — they respect each other — but if they’re both the lead driver in the points from their respective powerhouse teams, it could be a fascinating battle to see unfold.

Bianchi: Hocevar vs. the field

He’s been coined “Hurricane Hocevar” for a season, and if he emerges as expected, the strong likelihood is that Hocevar’s aggressive, go-for-it style is going to draw the ire of several veteran drivers along the way. Consider his clash with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. last year as a preview of what’s to come this season.

Biggest Disappointment

Gluck: Richard Childress Racing

This was my same pick last year, and I’m doing it for a different reason this season. I’m worried for RCR’s sake that it will not perform well enough to keep Kyle Busch in-house, and that will be a significant setback for the team.

They’ve been working hard the last two years to make improvements, but simply don’t have much to show for it. Busch could make the Chase, yes – but is that even enough? He wants to win races and believes he still can.

If the organization doesn’t give him the cars needed to run up front, the pending free agent could easily look elsewhere as RCR scrambles to figure out how to stay among the second tier of teams behind the “Big Three.”

Bianchi: Team Penske

A good argument could be made that no team was more impacted by the change to the Chase than Team Penske, which mastered the elimination format to the tune of Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney combining to win three of the past four championships. The team developed a penchant for sorting itself out through the regular season, then rising to the occasion in the playoffs.

Now, how a team performs during the regular season is going to greatly impact its title hopes, and there is doubt whether Penske is ready to go toe-to-toe with Hendrick and Gibbs on a weekly basis.

Surprise Driver

Gluck: Ryan Preece

Maybe he won’t be as big of a surprise after winning the Clash, but I have him making the Chase as well. Preece’s career looked like it might be almost over at Stewart-Haas Racing, and the RFK Racing opportunity appeared to be his last shot. He thrived last year, though, finishing with the 14th-most points overall in the season. That indicates he can make the Chase, which for some would rank as a surprise.

Bianchi: Ricky Stenhouse

In 2023, Stenhouse and his No. 47 team employed a philosophy where they grinded out solid finishes that had them inside the top 16 in points for much of the regular season. Last year, a similar approach had Stenhouse 13th in points at the halfway juncture of the regular season. Then, his performance nosedived, leading to 30th place in the final standings.

He’s much better than that, so if Hyak Motorsports can better execute, and Stenhouse can improve in qualifying (his average starting position last year was second-worst), he will jump the standings — maybe not into a playoff spot, but in the mix.

Most Likely First-Time Winner

Gluck: Hocevar

I picked Ty Gibbs last year, and while that’s still a completely viable and reasonable pick, it really feels like Hocevar is on the verge of breaking through soon.

Bianchi: Ty Gibbs

He’s come close on several occasions, drives for one of the two best teams and the schedule sets up well for him to get that win at some point during the spring. All that said, Hocevar could easily win before Gibbs. Either way, expect to see two new faces in victory lane this season.

Playoff picks for the 16-driver field (in alphabetical order)

Both Gluck and Bianchi (14):

• Christopher Bell
• Ryan Blaney
• Alex Bowman
• Chase Briscoe
• Chris Buescher
• William Byron
• Ross Chastain
• Chase Elliott
• Ty Gibbs
• Denny Hamlin
• Kyle Larson
• Joey Logano
• Tyler Reddick
• Bubba Wallace

Gluck-only (2):

• Ryan Preece
• Carson Hocevar

Bianchi-only (2):

• Austin Cindric
• Shane van Gisbergen

Gluck explanation: I know it’s a bit of a stretch to say Austin Cindric will miss the Chase as a Team Penske driver, but he was outside the top 16 in overall points last season despite winning his way into the playoffs. I like Preece and Hocevar’s chances, as listed above. As for Jordan’s SVG pick? I could absolutely see that happening, and van Gisbergen has rapidly improved on ovals while continuing to shine on road courses. But I just don’t know if it will be enough to make the top 16.

Bianchi explanation: As a Penske driver, Cindric should have good enough cars to make the cut even if the organization does take a step back. And van Gisbergen’s road course prowess means he’s going to earn some wins, which pays an additional 15 points this year. This, combined with continued improvement on ovals, should be enough for him to sneak into the Chase as the 16th seed.

17th-place driver (first driver to miss playoff field)

Gluck: Michael McDowell

I was torn between two Spire teammates – Hocevar and McDowell – for my final Chase spot, and ultimately went with Hocevar due to his raw speed and ability to get stage points. That pick could easily be proven incorrect due to McDowell’s consistency and veteran mindset over Hocevar’s lack of ability to finish off good runs, but following that type of storyline is another reason this new format will be more enjoyable.

Bianchi: Ryan Preece

Based on his victory in the Clash, picking against Ryan Preece is already looking unwise. But this isn’t a pick against Preece, per se, more so a lack of confidence in RFK Racing as the three-car team lacked consistent speed a year ago combined with the belief that the Chase format favors NASCAR’s “Big Three” (Hendrick, JGR, Penske) to a significant degree, where something would have to go haywire for their combined 12 drivers not to qualify for the Chase. Were this to happen, it wouldn’t leave many spots left, and unfortunately, teams like RFK are going to be negatively impacted.

2026 Cup Series champion

Gluck: Kyle Larson

Funny enough, “Driver of the Year” often didn’t align with whoever won the championship in the elimination format. For example: Denny Hamlin was likely the “Driver of the Year” last year but didn’t actually win the title. Now that should be much more connected, and I’d be surprised if we didn’t just eliminate “Driver of the Year” as a category going forward because of it.

Bianchi: Christopher Bell

Over the past years, Bell has emerged as one of NASCAR’s best talents, someone capable of winning on any style track, any given week. He’s also been on the cusp of winning a series-first title — he twice advanced to the Championship 4 finale — even though the format often seemed to work against him. But the switch to the Chase format is going to benefit him considerably, perhaps more so than any other driver, with his high-level consistency, and will almost certainly make him a title threat. The expectation is that come the Chase, which sets up very well for his team’s strengths, Bell finishes in the top nearly every race to finally grab a hold of the Cup championship.