Only a select few can get the job done at Augusta National.
PublishedApril 7, 2026 9:40 AM EDT•UpdatedApril 7, 2026 9:40 AM EDT
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The number of winning trends associated with the Masters is just about endless. There is a way to wiggle nearly every player in the limited field into fitting a mold where you can convince yourself that they have a legitimate chance at winning the green jacket, but two trends have emerged over the years that anyone serious about picking a winner can not completely ignore.
Eleven of the last 13 Masters champions have gained at least 1.7 strokes tee to green in the three months leading up to the event. A total of 10 guys fit that mold in 2026, according to Data Golf.
Collin Morikawa (2.17, 18 rounds)
Matt Fitzpatrick (2.14, 28 rounds)
Jon Rahm (2.04, 20 rounds)
Jon Rahm is certainly among the most-popular picks to win what would be his second green jacket. (Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images)
Si Woo Kim (2.02, 36 rounds)
Rory McIlroy (1.99, 22 rounds)
Scottie Scheffler (1.86, 24 rounds)
Ludvig Aberg (1.82, 24 rounds)
Cameron Young (1.78, 24 rounds)
Min Woo Lee (1.70, 28 rounds)
Chris Gotterup (1.70, 30 rounds)
READ: Masters Storylines: Who Can Actually Win, A Stable Of Debutants, Rory’s Defense, And A Disrespected Scottie
With that list established, we can narrow it down even further, given that 21 of the last 27 Masters champions have either won or finished second in a previous major in their career. This leaves us with just seven players, based on these two trends, who could slip on the green jacket on Sunday.
Collin Morikawa: 2x PGA Championship winner, 3 Top 10 finishes in the Masters
Matt Fitzpatrick: U.S. Open winner, 2 Top 10 finishes in the Masters
Jon Rahm: 2x major winner, Masters champion in 2023
Rory McIlroy: 5x major winner, Masters champion in 2025
Scottie Scheffler: 4x major winner, Masters champion in 2022 & 2024
Ludvig Aberg: Masters runner-up in 2024
Cameron Young: Open Championship runner-up 2022
It may feel a bit ridiculous to narrow down a 91-player field to just seven names who can actually win the Masters, but there isn’t a more predictive tournament in golf. Augusta National is hosting the 90th edition of the Masters this week. Ninety tournaments on the same golf course leads to some numbers and trends you can, and likely should, very much lean on.
