NBA Championship Power Rankings: Why These Six Teams Have the Best Shot at Winning a Title

Welcome to the final edition of Sports Illustrated’s weekly NBA championship power rankings. 

Since the All-Star break we’ve kept close track of the teams that seemed most capable of competing for this year’s title. With each passing week we eliminated the contenders that revealed weaknesses significant enough to wipe away any belief (or even irrational hope) they could realistically compete into June this year—from the 76ers and their injury problems to the Rockets and their ugly late-game execution. 

Which brings us to today, on the eve of playoff basketball. As we reach the end of the regular season, only six teams remain on our championship power rankings after we began with 12. These are the six teams who boast the talent, skill and will to do one of the hardest things in sports: raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy. 

If you want to see how the list progressed as we tracked every contender week by week, you can find those links here: 

Now, without further ado, we present our final edition of the NBA championship power rankings. One of the below six teams will be the last left standing. We can’t wait to find out who that will be. 

NBA championship power rankings: Final edition

1. Eliminated teams
2. NBA championship power rankings

Eliminated teams

Injuries to Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves at the end of the regular season have derailed the Lakers’ title hopes. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

76ers

Why they’re eliminated: The 76ers have served a few reminders in recent weeks that, when healthy, this is a talented roster that can hang with most opponents. Does anybody reading this have faith they’ll stay healthy? Philadelphia should make for an entertaining playoff opponent, but any idea the key players can all stay on the court for two straight months in the physical gauntlet of playoff basketball is fanciful at best. And even if they do manage that minor miracle, one bizarre bout of inconsistency will sink their hopes. After a season full of such inconsistencies, we can’t buy what Philly is selling. 

Raptors

Why they’re eliminated: The Raptors could definitely prove to be a tough playoff out against the right first-round opponent, but a deep playoff run culminating in a title? A touch too optimistic for our liking. Even with a consistently strong defensive effort led by Scottie Barnes, the offense needs everything to go perfectly to produce at a championship-caliber level. There’s just not enough room for error on that side of the floor. Toronto is close but not quite ready to make serious noise in the postseason. 

Rockets

Why they’re eliminated: Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün are a pair of quite talented individual scorers. The defense is physical and should prove a massive pain to play against with a postseason whistle. But the Rockets just don’t have enough pieces to execute consistently when it matters most. Their offensive rating drops to the level of the Raptors’ in the clutch and defenses can swarm Durant in the halfcourt because there isn’t enough shooting to keep them honest. With the right draw in the first round Houston could win a series but have too many fundamental issues to make a deep run. 

Timberwolves

Why they’re eliminated: The Timberwolves are limping into the postseason literally and figuratively. Anthony Edwards is battling a knee issue similar to the one that knocked Steph Curry out for two months. Minnesota has lost four of its last six games. And even with a fully healthy roster this team has struggled mightily to string quality stretches of basketball together. The Wolves have found plenty of ways to lose this year but not nearly enough ways to win and that makes it impossible to trust them. 

Cavaliers

Why they’re eliminated: The Cavaliers are a great offensive team with worrying defensive lapses seemingly every other possession. In other words, everything you’d expect from a Donovan Mitchell-James Harden backcourt. The two have meshed well enough as scorers since Harden was traded to Cleveland ahead of the deadline but the defensive problems that accompany their production haven’t been figured out. The Cavs are out of time to do so. Pair that with Harden’s reputation as a playoff faller and Cleveland doesn’t have a shot at a title. 

Lakers

Why they’re eliminated: Unfortunately for the Lakers they are the last team to suffer elimination—and it’s entirely due to injury. Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves are both out for a while and will potentially miss the entire first round. If Los Angeles survives long enough to allow them to return, they will have to work their way back to playing shape in a second-round playoff series against either the 60-win Spurs or the reigning champion Thunder. Even with a fully healthy roster there were genuine questions about the Lakers’ ability to hold up defensively against the best offensive teams they’ll see in the West, as well as a lack of size on the front line. Now? They just about need a miracle to see that healthy roster in the postseason, much less win four series and a championship. 

Maybe LeBron James can lead L.A. to a first-round playoff series win at 41 years of age. Maybe Dončić’s Hail Mary treatment of his hamstring allows him to return sooner than the 4-to-6 week timeline his injury usually comes with, and maybe he can immediately produce at superstar levels upon stepping back on the court. Maybe Reaves does the same after recovering from his own oblique injury. One of those things happening isn’t impossible to see. But the Lakers need them all to happen to have even a prayer at running the West bracket. That will not happen, and thus Los Angeles will be watching from home as one of the below six teams wins a title this season. 

NBA championship power rankings

6. Knicks

Jalen Brunson is key to the Knicks’ title hopes. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Record entering April 8: 51–28

The title case: The Knicks boast a very talented starting five that is quite difficult to stop offensively. Jalen Brunson is a proven No. 1 playoff option and the OG Anunoby–Mikal Bridges combo is a defensive terror on the wing. New York is skilled on both ends and the bench has a few names capable of swinging a playoff game. For all their issues, the orange-and-blue should have a talent advantage in most series and that is the edge that often decides playoff games. Healthy with a roster less run-down than last season entering the playoffs, New York has the ability to win the East and make a run at this year’s title. 

Why they aren’t higher: For all that heralded talent, the Knicks haven’t often shown it. There were deeply concerning signs of poor chemistry on both ends of the floor in March, which is supposed to be the month true contenders lock in and fine-tune what they do best before the postseason begins. New York did the opposite, showing the league its cracks run deep.

As one of the best clutch teams in the NBA stats-wise (and featuring a cold-blooded crunchtime operator in Brunson), the Knicks are capable of winning close games in the postseason. But their flaws can blow the game open before they can show off their late-game execution and that will sink them against the East’s playoff competition eventually. 

5. Nuggets

A healthy Aaron Gordon will be a difference-maker for the Nuggets in the playoffs. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Record entering April 8: 51–28 

The title case: Nikola Jokić has been absolutely majestic and should finish the season as the first player to ever lead the NBA in rebounds and assists per game. As long as he’s healthy, Denver has a shot. Jamal Murray enjoying his first All-Star campaign could lead to an even better postseason for an already proven playoff performer. Peyton Watson’s emergence means the Nuggets have three varied yet capable three-and-D wings to throw out there depending on the matchup and Tim Hardaway Jr. has buoyed the bench far beyond expectations. It’s a talented, experienced roster led by arguably the best player in the NBA. 

Why they aren’t higher: The defense is a serious problem. The Nuggets will always struggle to put on elite performances on that side of the court as long as Jokić mans the middle, but he’s gotten good enough that Denver can at least post respectable numbers against most opponents. Not this season. The defense ranks 21st in defensive rating and teams with bottom-10 defenses rarely manage to pull off championship runs. It’s fair to say those numbers are affected by extended absences from Watson, Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun. But that just highlights the second concern—health. The Nuggets have not enjoyed much injury luck this season and with the playoffs around the corner Watson is week-to-week.

A healthy and focused Denver team can push any team to the limit in a seven-game series but we haven’t seen much of that team this season, which makes it hard to trust we’ll see them when it matters most. 

4. Celtics

The Jays will carry the Celtics as far as they can in this year’s postseason. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Record entering April 8: 54–25 

The title case: Jayson Tatum’s return has gone so well that the Celtics can enter the playoffs confident they employ two of the five best players in the conference between him and Jaylen Brown. That talent differential alone gives them a huge advantage over nearly every other team in the bracket. Add in the coaching lift from Joe Mazzulla after a masterful season on the sideline and Boston enjoys a much larger margin for error than most teams.

The Celtics win games by owning possession battle while getting up threes in bunches and playing tremendous team defense. That’s as good a formula for playoff basketball as any and there’s a chance they have another level to hit; they’re 13–2 with Tatum in the lineup and he isn’t scoring at nearly the level he was pre-injury. 

Why they aren’t higher: Tatum has been awesome for a guy who tore his Achilles last May but isn’t quite at his former All-NBA peaks and it’s fair to wonder if he’s capable of doing so in the playoff basketball pressure cooker. And if he can’t, do the Celtics have enough juice to make it to June and battle whoever emerges from the bloodbath in the West? Brown’s ability to step up isn’t in question but Boston will otherwise have to lean heavily on players with zero meaningful playoff experience for production outside its two stars, most importantly Neemias Queta but extending to wings Baylor Scheierman and Jordan Walsh.

Tatum and Brown make for a good enough duo to ensure the C’s have a shot in every game, but won’t be overwhelming favorites in the same way they were the last few years. 

3. Pistons

J.B. Bickerstaff has the Pistons locked in with the playoffs around the corner. | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Record entering April 8: 57–22

The title case: The Pistons boasted one of the NBA’s best defenses all season long as well as a true MVP candidate in Cade Cunningham. That’s a title-winning formula no matter the context. And while Cunningham’s injury was an awful stroke of luck, Detroit not only survived but thrived in his absence. The roster was forced to figure out how to score without their conductor and the dividends may be enormous given that was the biggest issue plaguing the Pistons for most of the year. And it’s looking more and more likely they’ll have their star back for the postseason; Cunningham was elevated to questionable for Wednesday night’s contest and appears to have an outside shot to return for the final few regular season games as an initial ramp-up back to full speed.

With him in the fold Detroit plays a brand of basketball perfectly built for the playoffs and will enjoy the easiest possible path after securing homecourt advantage until the Finals. Deeeetroit Baaskeeetballl is back and expectations are, rightfully, sky-high.  

Why they aren’t higher: if Cunningham is any less than his best the Pistons will still struggle to beat the best teams they’ll face. At this point it seems probable he’ll be back to full strength by the time Detroit faces a non-play-in team but that won’t be a certainty until we see it with our own eyes. Even if he is at his best, and even if the team figured it out despite his absence, offensive production still looms as a fatal flaw. Beyond all that, this Detroit roster hasn’t actually won a playoff series before and that experience matters quite a bit when they have to win four in order to raise a trophy. The Pistons figure to be an extremely tough out but are not without their issues even after their best season in a long, long time.

2. Spurs

Victor Wembanyama’s first taste of postseason basketball is nearly here. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Record entering April 8: 60–19

The title case: Victor Wembanyama. That’s the start and end of the Spurs’ case to win a title way ahead of schedule this year. The superstar center is an all-consuming force who can dominate both ends of the floor; the fact that his teammates have learned how to best take advantage of his freakish talents makes San Antonio ridiculously tough to score on and capable of putting up big numbers on the scoreboard. Stephon Castle has taken an exciting leap and remains a thorny defender. Keldon Johnson may end up the Sixth Man of the Year. The Spurs’ rotation is filled with players who lean entirely into their roles and coached up well by Mitch Johnson. They rank top five in both offensive and defensive rating. They hit 60 wins. They check just about every box a title contender needs to check. 

Why they aren’t higher: In most years the Spurs would be No. 1 but the defending champions in Oklahoma City have matched them win-for-win since February so they fail to claim the top spot as a result. More broadly, San Antonio’s only flaw on the surface appears to be inexperience; only three regular rotation players have played any postseason basketball and only two of those players have seen past the first round. That’s not one of those things that matters against most teams but against the best of the West in a Game 7 with the clock winding down? That’s when it matters a lot. Whether Wembanyama will be able to hold up physically in a playoff setting is valid to ask from where we currently stand. De’Aaron Fox hasn’t really played like a former All-Star making $37 million this year. But those are questions, not deep-set concerns, as the regular season winds to a close. 

1. Thunder

The Thunder’s best three players are healthy and ready to roll for the playoffs. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Last week’s rankings: No. 1
Record entering April 8: 63–16

The title case: The Thunder are the defending champions, employ at worst the second-best player in the NBA and should hit the postseason fully healthy. What reason do we have to doubt their ability to win it all? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been magnificent yet again as a scorer and the depth of talent in Oklahoma City has been on full display all season long thanks to injuries continually nagging the roster—as have the skills of coach Mark Daigneault, arguably having a better campaign than when he won Coach of the Year last season. The Thunder will beat you to a pulp, force turnovers on even the most careful of teams and run the floor at every opportunity. It doesn’t matter who they play—this team is a woodchipper and only the best, most talented, disciplined rosters have a shot to slow them down in a seven-game series. 

Why they could lose: The only genuine concern for OKC is the Jalen Williams situation. Williams proved enormously important as a secondary scorer during last year’s title run and missed over half this season with a hamstring injury. If he can stay healthy and is at full go by the time the Thunder run into the serious contenders in the West then the team will be even more dangerous than they’ve shown this year—a frightening proposition. If Williams falters, though, the Thunder’s margin for error shrinks quite a bit and the two Game 7s they had to play during last year’s run suggests they don’t win games quite as easily as other runaway favorites in the past. 

Otherwise, though, it’s the same situation as last year. The Thunder have been the best team in the league all season long and, while they are capable of losing, it requires a near-perfect stretch to win four of seven against this team. They are officially our leaders in the clubhouse to win a second straight NBA championship. 

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