Prediction markets say US military operations in Iran most likely to run until end of June as ceasefire doubts linger

Polymarket data shows traders see little chance of a swift resolution despite two-week pause in hostilities brokered by Pakistan

Traders on Polymarket, the decentralised prediction market platform, are pricing the end of June as the most likely point at which Donald Trump will announce a formal end to US military operations against Iran, with the contract for that date carrying a 78% implied probability against just 10% for a resolution by 15 April.

The market, which has attracted $16.7 million in trading volume, shows probability rising steadily across the timeline, with a 40% chance of operations ending by 30 April and 65% by 31 May, before jumping to 78% at the end of June.

The backdrop is a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan and agreed on 7 April, after a dramatic day in which Trump threatened that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” unless Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil supply passes.

Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the strait in exchange for a two-week suspension of US and Israeli bombing, with Pakistan inviting both sides to Islamabad for further negotiations aimed at a more durable settlement.

Both sides claimed victory. Iran described the deal as broadly aligned with its own 10-point peace proposal, which includes the lifting of all sanctions and the withdrawal of US forces from regional bases, while Trump said the US had already met its military objectives.

The ceasefire’s terms remain conditional and disputed in scope, with Israel clarifying separately that the pause does not extend to Lebanon.

The Polymarket data suggests traders view June as the realistic window for resolution but remain far from certain, with meaningful probability still assigned to the conflict persisting well beyond that point.