On Wednesday evening, US President Donald Trump said if Oman were to attempt to control the Strait of Hormuz in conjunction with Iran, the US would launch a military strike against the country at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula.
He was responding to a report by Iranian state television claiming that an unofficial draft agreement existed to restore shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The draft reportedly called for Iran and Oman to jointly regulate traffic in the waterway.
“Oman will behave like everyone else, or we’ll have to blow them up,” Trump told reporters when asked if he would accept such an agreement.
The unusually harsh threat is directed at a country that has long been regarded as a mediator in the Middle East.
“Oman has traditionally played a mediating role between the Arab Gulf states and Iran,” Marcus Schneider, head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation’s Regional Project for Peace and Security in the Middle East in Beirut, told DW.
Among the Gulf states, Oman has always maintained the closest ties with Tehran.
Stefan Lukas, founder of the analysis firm Middle East Minds, sees this as what makes the country unique. “Oman is one of the few remaining countries in the region that still maintains relatively stable relations with nearly all parties to the conflict,” Lukas told DW.
Oman’s key geographic position
With its location on the southern side of the Strait of Hormuz, Oman plays a key role in the current conflict.
At the same time, the sultanate maintains good relations with both Washington and Tehran and has repeatedly served as a venue for confidential talks.
The situation is delicate for Oman. The country is trying to maintain its role as a neutral mediator but is increasingly caught between the two sides.
“Since the start of the war, Oman has been among the Gulf states pushing hardest for de-escalation,” said Schneider. Like the other states in the region, it fears being drawn into the conflict.
Oman relies on stable trade relations with China, India, Europe, and its neighbors. At the same time, Washington is increasing political pressure, while the proximity of war threatens the country’s security.
Oman unlikely to join Tehran on Hormuz
However, there is little to suggest that Oman is actually seeking joint control of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran.
“Iran is increasingly portraying the strait as joint Iranian-Omani waters,” said Schneider. In Oman itself, however, this idea is viewed with skepticism. Active participation in such measures would run counter to the interests of the other Gulf states.
Lukas also considers such reports to be “rather unrealistic.” The government in Muscat has “absolutely no interest in joint control with Iran.” What is crucial, rather, is restoring safe and uninterrupted shipping through the strait.
Tensions in the Gulf
For years, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have viewed Oman’s unique role with mixed feelings. Both benefit from the channels of communication with Tehran Oman can provide, but they view Muscat’s independent course with skepticism.
At the same time, there is a growing realization among the Gulf states that lasting stability cannot be achieved by opposing Iran, but only by working with it.
Peace efforts continue as US carries out Iran strikes
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
According to a recent assessment in the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) citing local politicians, “Iran is here to stay” and “for Qatar and others in the Gulf, forging ties of economic interdependence between Iran and the Gulf is likely the best form of deterrence.”
“Integrating Iran into an economic model that depends on regional stability may be the best hope for deterring its disruptive behavior going forward,” the report said.
This development is of major importance to Oman.
“Oman, in particular, feels especially vulnerable due to its geographical location on the Strait of Hormuz,” said Schneider. Muscat is therefore keen to prevent any further escalation.
Trump’s threat unlikely
“Donald Trump’s latest threats are being received extremely negatively in the region,” said Schneider.
At the same time, the recent Iranian attacks have heightened doubts about US security guarantees for the Gulf states.
Nevertheless, a US attack on Oman is considered highly unlikely. Schneider cites discussions with Omani experts who view the threats more as an expression of frustration in Washington. A military strike against a long-standing partner and mediator would further weaken US influence in the region.
Lukas also considers a US military strike against Oman to be implausible. In his view, the sultanate’s political and strategic importance as a channel of communication between the parties to the conflict is simply too great. He believes that an attack would not only affect Oman but also significantly limit the US’s diplomatic options throughout the region.
President of Conflict: Are Trumps tactics going too far?
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
This article was translated from German
